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This MUST be a sign we are nearing a market top! ;)


bigbadbakken
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As someone who was born and raised in Seattle, I've been a Seattle Seahawks fan for my whole life. And as a fan, I follow a few of the players' on Facebook. One of those players is Richard Sherman. First off, I'll just say that if he weren't on my team, I'd hate the guy because of his attitude, but he is a MONSTER in the secondary. Over the last month or so, he has randomly mentioned on his Facebook page about how his 'guy' who runs an investing blog (never heard of it before. Common man investing?) has been getting him more and more interested into investing. From some of these posts about the stock market, I'm starting to put together that not only is he learning and investing more and more into the stock market, but he seems to be investing either on behalf of, or at least in an attempt to benefit, his charitable foundation. This was a post of his today:

 

"Taking a moment to study up before the stock market opens tomorrow. My guy Dave Meyers with Common Man Investor has made me obsessed with this stock game! Love the support it gives to my foundation, and I get to put my Stanford education to work!

 

Check him out... giving several great stock tips to me and my foundation weekly."

 

No, I have no idea who the guy who runs that website is so I'm not using this as a way to promote that. But my point with the post (besides being a little silly of course) is that I seem to always read about how there are some "checkpoints" on the road to an overheated market. One of those being the general public getting more and more interested in the market.

 

Again, besides being lighthearted and of course anecdotal, what are your guys' thoughts on things like this? For the record, I have no interest in, nor do I try to predict where the market is going. Oh, and also I'd like to say that I'm brand new to the board after being a lurker for over a year. Glad to be hear!  ;D

 

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These are signs for sure.  We've seen them before.  Common Man Investor's performance record only shows for this year...he's up 76%!  Look at some of the blog posts on the side...the participants are watching stock performance on a short term basis, watching and buying futures...we'll see if this guy is around in five years!  Cheers!

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Speculation on market top is as dangerous as speculation on stock price for next week or next month. Expensive market can become even more expensive. Madness can continue for another year or two. One “Common Man Investor” may not be a good indication of market top. There may be hundreds or thousands of “Common Man Investors” joining the market and pushing the market even higher next month.

 

Buy a great business that is run by great manager at cheap price. Have good sleep at  night. Do not worry about the market.

 

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Speculation on market top is as dangerous as speculation on stock price for next week or next month. Expensive market can become even more expensive. Madness can continue for another year or two. One “Common Man Investor” may not be a good indication of market top. There may be hundreds or thousands of “Common Man Investors” join the market and push the market even higher next month.

 

Buy a great business that is run by great manager at cheap price. Have good sleep at  night. Do not worry about the market.

 

Spot on.

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Richard Sherman did graduate from Stanford, and seems like a smart guy. I get the impression that value investors are only happy when others are sad...and sad when others are happy...Market may keep going up for years.....

 

 

Maybe we can get him to come on here....:)

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Guest wellmont

if you are looking for tops watch if the kardashians/jayzee/beyonce/gaga/beiber say they are doing anything with stocks. watch for new reality tv shows that involve the stock market. As far as top indicators go this a football player that very few have heard of tweeting about stocks does not register for me. my own sense is that we are not really at that point yet where celebrities have embraced stocks.

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I'll tell you when to find the market top.

 

The big name shorts keep predicting the market top and lose tons of $ on their shorts. when they start to give up, then we've a market top.

 

Speculators don't use the words "Taking a moment to study up", "put my Stanford education to work". It is all about buying something because it is going up.

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I just read the following headline and thought it fit well within this thread...unbelievable.

 

Priceline (PCLN) announced the pricing of $1 billion principal amount of Convertible Senior Notes due 2020.

The notes will pay semiannually at the astonishing rate of 0.35%. Notes may be converted into cash up to their principal amount, and into shares of PCLN stock based on a conversion rate of 0.7604 shares of common stock per $1,000 principal amount.

The conversion price of approximately $1,315.10 per share, represented a 66% premium based on the closing price of $792.27 per share on May 29, 2013).

If the underwriters' overallotment is fully exercised an additional $150 MM in notes will be issued. At 35-basis points, the buy back of shares with the bond proceeds will be immediately accretive to EPS.

As of 1:38 pm EDT PCLN was up $15.28 @ $807.55 /share.

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The current social signs does look like a warning, but I am curious how many value investors were calling for the top from 1991 to 1999? :)

I think value investors tend to sell too early, and buy too early.

My gut feeling is that the market will have a short dip to scare all these Common Man investors out, and then start to rally strongly after that. Then when these Common Man investors realized that the market has gone up so much after their panic selling, they got back into the market with a mood of revenge and hatred. :)

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Yes, there are reasons to be skeptical everywhere.  But does not the market rise on a wall of worry?  Plus, does one realize how huge under-investment in North America has had over the last 5-6 years?  Companies are so flush with cash now (as the Priceline story tells) that they will eventually do something with it (smartly or not) -- Buffett is.

 

If the spigots open for capital expenditures, watch out as you/we may get left behind.

 

Disclosure: I hope I am wrong as cash hurts and I may get left behind too :(

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I'll tell you when to find the market top.

 

The big name shorts keep predicting the market top and lose tons of $ on their shorts. when they start to give up, then we've a market top.

 

Speculators don't use the words "Taking a moment to study up", "put my Stanford education to work". It is all about buying something because it is going up.

  See the following link it might open your eyes.http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-05-16/morgan-stanley-most-buying-has-come-shorts-covered-rather-longs-bought
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The current social signs does look like a warning, but I am curious how many value investors were calling for the top from 1991 to 1999? :)

I think value investors tend to sell too early, and buy too early.

My gut feeling is that the market will have a short dip to scare all these Common Man investors out, and then start to rally strongly after that. Then when these Common Man investors realized that the market has gone up so much after their panic selling, they got back into the market with a mood of revenge and hatred. :)

Value investors tend to sell to early and buy too early. Right on the button and the plague of the value investor until you think of the curse of the momentum investor, you buy too late and sell too late.
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anyone selling or just buying puts

 

I'm always writing puts. I am short puts for May 31, June 7, June 22, and July 20 expiration dates. At various strike prices I am short puts on CF, AAPL, INTC, EMC, BAC, NOV, DTV, CHKP, COH, ORCL, MDT, STRZA, HRS, DELL, and CSCO.

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anyone selling or just buying puts

 

I'm always writing puts. I am short puts for May 31, June 7, June 22, and July 20 expiration dates. At various strike prices I am short puts on CF, AAPL, INTC, EMC, BAC, NOV, DTV, CHKP, COH, ORCL, MDT, STRZA, HRS, DELL, and CSCO.

 

That is quite a collection of put shorts. :)

Do you not worry about missing the upside for these stocks?

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i have puts (sold) on BAC, MBI, EZPW, INTC, SHLD as well (would sell more if the premium is attractive relative to the strike price)

 

all at very low strike price, ways to raise some cash (i hardly use margin, so that is not much of a concern)

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