Jump to content


  • Posts

  • Joined

  • Last visited

Everything posted by ubuy2wron

  1. I have been doing this for decades and I expect this to be a banner year for implementing this strategy. To implement this strategy you look for a company that has been a loser for the year and selling at year lows or multi year lows in December and is experiencing increasing volume. Institutions and individuals will often sell their losers in December to trigger a tax loss to offset gains. The sellers sell fro tax reasons the buyers are buying because of valuation reasons. The selling will start to recede as we approach the end of the year and natural supply and demand forces cause a pop in the stock. This is called tax bounce or year end or January effect. It is most pronounced in companies with smaller floats and mkt caps. It is he single most consistent trading strategy that I have encountered. I have been actively looking at the energy sector as being a lucrative area as well as the mining sector. Good luck and good hunting.
  2. Value investors tend to sell to early and buy too early. Right on the button and the plague of the value investor until you think of the curse of the momentum investor, you buy too late and sell too late.
  3. See the following link it might open your eyes.http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-05-16/morgan-stanley-most-buying-has-come-shorts-covered-rather-longs-bought
  4. The only nthing that will ruin a well thought out mechanistic value approach will be you. Twenty names should give you a large enough sample size letting MR. Mkt do his magic for a long enough period of time without interfering is the hard part. Good luck.
  5. I do not know who coined the term Keynsian end game but using the term does not indicate you are denigrating Keynes. I do not believe Mr Keynes would be supportive of Japanese economic policy. The end game in Japan if Kyle Bass is right will not result in a default in a classical sense, when it comes down to promises to voters and interest and princial payments to bond holders I believe the bond holders win in capitalist countries. The end game is a lot of seniors in Japan better like ramen noodles cuz they wil be eating them for the rest of their lives. Buying CDS on sovereign debt makes about as much sense to me as buying insurance against a large asteroid impact. I would write that policy all day long every day until the asteroid hit, then who cares. Japan seems to me to be as Kyle described a bug in search of a wind shield. The stock mkt and real estate market went to insane valuations then crashed (but no one went broke) Twenty plus years of extend and pretend have transpired in Japan while the govt. piled on debt and told the populace not to worry or to question anything. Now the central bank is leading a banzai charge to the edge of the cliff. Well if central bankers can somehow repeal the laws of physics perhaps the economy will take flight when it gets to the edge but I'm betting the anchor of 240% debt to GDP kinda gets in the way of a soaring economy.
  6. Unless its floating rate debt, I don't get the logic of #1. Why don't you get the logic of #1? Given that defaults are low because of low interest rates, it naturally follows that continued low interest rates lead to continued low defaults. The low rates have been low for years now. The loan portfolio is seasoned such that the remaining credits in the aggregate loan portfolio is either of low rate or they are hardy seasoned credits at higher rates (the weaker credits having already defaulted). Credit is tight? I do not think so, 1-junk bond issuance is off the charts with the greatest increases in the worst credit and2- the explosion in sovereign debt is breath taking and the world is STILL relying on credit rating agencies. Japan is rated double AA. The Keynsian endgame will likely show up in Japan next ,its already happened in Greece and Cypress. I am guessing like Greece and Cyprus there are no winners only losers
  7. “One of the reasons why deferred prosecution agreements are such a powerful tool is that, in many ways, a DPA has the same punitive, deterrent, and rehabilitative effect as a guilty plea,” Lanny Breuer, then an assistant U.S. attorney general, said in a speech to the New York Bar City Association in September. I don't understand why, do you? It is almost like the prosecutors patting Cohen's head, saying: "oh, my poor little kid, don't cry. If you don't do this again, daddy won't kick your butt, ok?" See link re Lanny Breuer http://www.corporatecrimereporter.com/news/200/breuercovington03282013/
  8. “One of the reasons why deferred prosecution agreements are such a powerful tool is that, in many ways, a DPA has the same punitive, deterrent, and rehabilitative effect as a guilty plea,” Lanny Breuer, then an assistant U.S. attorney general, said in a speech to the New York Bar City Association in September. I don't understand why, do you? It is almost like the prosecutors patting Cohen's head, saying: "oh, my poor little kid, don't cry. If you don't do this again, daddy won't kick your butt, ok?" Lanny Breuer has since left the govt and works for a Wall Street law firm the represents the likes of Mr Cohen and the rest of the big banks.
  9. If this has been posted already sorry. He is a bit of a perma bear but I agree with him. http://www.advisoranalyst.com/glablog/2013/05/27/john-hussman-not-in-kansas-anymore.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+advisoranalyst+%28AdvisorAnalyst+Views%29
  10. Agreed all around. Have you seen the video of Elizabeth Warren asking the regulators when the last time was they took a big bank to trial? Depressing! I watched a documentary on the lack of criminal prosecution of Wall Street ececs for the sub-prime fiasco. The head govt. official for determining prosecutions was interviewed extensively his arguement for the lack of criminal prosecutions was the uncertainty of conictions and the adequacy of civil remedies. this individual has since left the employ of the govt. and is employed by a "wall street" law firm representing the banks in question. If in fact the justice dept. has been captured as well it just might make me turn religious as there is obviously no justice in THIS world.
  11. The CDS game is rigged as far a Europe is concerned. My understanding is the the Greece bail out was specificaly structured so as not to trigger the CDS's. It seems to me that if Japan does not default it will only be because they make their currency worthless, I presume Kyle Bass has positioned himself short both the YEN and the JGB. Central bankers have not been able to repeal the Laws of Physics...yet.
  12. I think the only deterent is making Stevie , Bernie Madoffs roommate for life. The wonderfull thing about securities crimes are the victims are almost completely invisible. Any one who has bought or sold a security has likely paid a little more or received a little less because of Stevie he has almost certainly been on the other side of your trade at some point if you have dealt in the US capital markets in the last 20 years as SAC was responsible for as much as 20% of the volume on some days... he took some of YOUR money. I am afraid that if Stevie cuts a deal his wealth will wash away his sins just like Mike Milllikens money did.
  13. SCENT of corruption?!!! :o The odors eminating from SAC would gag a maggot and have for years.
  14. When the mkt was obviously undervalued (to me) in the fall of 2008 and the winter of 2009 there was a consensus here that the mkt was cheap, the concern was however that it may or could get cheaper. I see a similar dilemna today the consensus which is by no means universal is that the mkt is not so cheap, the concern however which is correctly expressed is that it may get even less not cheap. This is ALWAYS the dilemna for anyone placing any overall valuation overlay on their portfolio management.
  15. Taken from Zerohedge (so probably slighlt bear biased ) LOL "slightly bear biased." I am unable to not log onto this site daily. It is a fascinating conglomeration of conspiracy theorists, Libertarians, Gold Bugs, nihilists and anarchists. This is not the glass is half empty crowd this is there is no glass its all an illusion and we are the only folks smart enough to figure it out crowd. It is a pretty decent book end to this site if you want to see how the other half lives and thinks give it a gander.
  16. Market timing vs margin of safety are basically the same side of the coin. My personal out performance vs the S&P for the last 13 years has to be at least partially the result of finding myself with lots of cash when valuations are rich. This is the first time I find myself aggresively hedged or short but that is because I see the tail risks as being frankly scary as hell. If any one thinks that a Japanese or major European government default is just a small or insignificant risk then I suggest you have your head in the sand. This type of event while not certain is certainly possible, the knock on results of that type of magnitude 10 financial earth quake will make Lehman look like a cake walk. Prem understands the risks so by the way does Warren , Warren just will not talk about it in public.
  17. Great minds think alike or fools seldom differ you choose... I have sold pretty much all but three core positions most of them fairly recent buys (ABX) being the most recent. I have as much cash as I have ever had and I am about 25% hedged or short the S&P. I am pretty convinced that both Japan and Europe are going to go down hard the Euro can not work I think it will be a political event that puts them over the edge. I listened to Kyle Bass again on Japan sure wish I had given him some dough in Septemeber. I will likely start buying SEPT put spreads if this mkt goes up much more
  18. Looks like you are Prasad's babysitter. ;D Sanj can not sleep because his beloved Nuks lost the opening game in the play offs. I have never met Sanj but I just know that if I stood in the Costco hot dog line up before the game he would be there.
  19. ABX looks like I will be going down with the ship on this one.
  20. Thanks for the heads up. I must admit that I am only vaugely aware of this issue. I am going to guess that these legal issues can break either way and they will win some and lose others. I could not invest in any large drug company as an example if I started to try to determine merits of pending court cases.
  21. Moore, I hope this gets your attention. I was arguing pretty agressively a short gold stance and did in fact short both gold and silver at what looked to me to be a blow off top. Well I have switched I now have 10 percent of my portfolio in Barrick Gold which I think is as cheap as it has EVER been in relation to the price of gold and every other asset class I can think of. I am also short the US mkt as hedge against my long positions. This market is making me more nervous daily.
  22. Well I just ended the week by reading this report I think I will now go home and hang myself. LOL Seriously this guy is a little depressing but then what can one expect from a report that is titled no gets out of here alive. I also have been getting a sense of impending doom but I feel like an incurable optimist compared to this guy.. Have a great weekend giofranchi. Soon it will be fashion week in Milan when planeloads of young models decend on the streets of Milan and attempt to navigate the cobblestone streets in impossibly high heeled shoes. I picture you at a sidewalk cafe waiting to offer your assistance to these poor damsels with the twisted ankles.
  23. I have been buying ABX hand over fist in the last few days. I do not have an opinion on GOLD but you will find that ABX is selling at 3 SD below historic valuations in relation to GOLD.
  • Create New...