fuluvu

Tilson is selling "founding partner" of his newsletter for $6000.00. What a bargain ;) Dear future partner, I’m pleased to personally invite you to become a “founding partner” of the Empire Financial Partnership. Now, what I mean by “Founding Partner” doesn’t have to do with getting shares of my company or anything like that… It means that you’re entitled to every new product we ever publish… for life! But I must warn you… You’ll never see another offer like this ever again. Giving away a “piece of my business” at such a low introductory rate is me fulfilling a promise I made to Porter Stansberry…

HarperCollins Publishers via Amazon has The Intelligent Investor: Revised Edition (Kindle eBook) by Benjamin Graham, Jason Zweig & Warren E. Buffett for $2.99.

Time is a friend of great business and is the enemy of poor business. There may be value in the real estate of Sears or Joe. But, their poor businesses flush the value down to the drain over time. As time goes by, their value evaporates. The lesson I have learned from this is that investing in great business at reasonable price is better than investing in poor business at cheap price. Time is on your side if you do. I know you shouldn't pick one moment in time to judge performance but c'mon... This isn't like the late 1990s when staunch value guys were investing in forgotten but highly profitable businesses while the whole world was obsessed with DotCom and Telecom. This is a man who passed over HUNDREDS of great businesses for YEARS to double and triple down on both a man who seemed to be doing the opposite of what was needed to fix a giant retailer (Lampert) and a conviction that the whole Federal Government would be brought to heel by its very own court system (Freddie and Fannie). And then you have JOE which can not POSSIBLY be one of the top 10 businesses in the United States. I think to lag behind 99% of the other funds you should at LEAST be long volatility (which I feel is deeply undervalued at the moment) because at least that would kind of make sense.

I also agree. "You are much better off reading Buffett and Munger directly, and you can do it for free."

The Case for $35 a Barrel Oil An analysis of commodity traders’ positions suggests the drop in oil prices is only three-fifths done. Dec. 6, 2014 1:05 a.m. ET Review | Preview Oil prices have plunged by $40 a barrel since late June, to about $66 last week. Some say the selloff is overdone, but Steve Briese, writer and publisher of the Bullish Review of Commodity Insiders, says crude’s decline is only three-fifths completed. Briese (pronounced “breezy”), whose bearish view of oil helped inform our March 31 cover story, “Here Comes $75 Oil,” now projects a low of $35 a barrel, a price last seen in February 2009. Oil fetched more than $100 a barrel when our story was published. Enlarge Image In March, we predicted oil could fall to $75 a barrel. The new forecast: a bottom as low as $35 and settling at about $60. Based on his analysis of the most recent Commitments of Traders report, released weekly by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, Briese notes that the market’s large speculators, mostly commodity funds, still have a huge long position in futures and options on West Texas Intermediate crude traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange. These funds tend to follow trends, riding bull and bear markets in either direction. Since the price of WTI peaked in late June at $108 a barrel, the funds have liquidated only a quarter of that long position; their sales helped drive the price south. With three-quarters of the position remaining, further liquidation could take the oil price down another $30. A similar pattern of long liquidation by the funds accompanied the prior plunge in WTI crude to $35, notes Briese, who also predicted that decline, based on similar grounds. His latest forecast can be viewed as the oil market’s downside risk; it could take awhile before the market bottoms out. The price of Brent crude, which normally sells at a premium of several dollars over WTI, could still come close, over an extended period, to averaging the $60 level that the Saudis reportedly can accept. But more important, as the Barron’s story predicted, a new normal now dominates the oil market, due to tectonic shifts in the forces of supply and demand. ON THE SUPPLY SIDE, more than a trillion barrels of crude oil from unconventional sources—the equivalent of more than 30 years of extra supply—have been discovered in the past five years, mostly recoverable at $70 a barrel or less. About a third are from shale, a third from deepwater drilling, and a third from oil sands. Enlarge Image The U.S. is in the lead of this supply surge. According to Edward Morse, Citigroup’s global head of commodity research, “Even if West Texas Intermediate prices fell below $75 for a while, production growth in the U.S. would continue at relatively high levels for years to come.” On the demand side, at $70 crude, the internal combustion engine can now be run more cheaply on alternate sources of fuel, including much cheaper natural gas—a conversion that is already under way for trucking fleets. With conversions also advantageous for buses, ships, and eventually passenger vehicles, the growth in global consumption of oil could slow in the next several years, and then flatten out. The net result: The $90 floor on the oil price has become the new ceiling, although it will likely be pierced by occasional short-lived spikes. The new floor is probably $70, although with occasional short-lived plunges well below that level. A crude-oil price running on a sustained basis in the triple digits is probably a thing of the past. -- Gene Epstein

Today's WSJ article about Bill Miller, it is interesting to read. Contrary to the article's title, Miller has changed in many ways. Amid the stress by (crisis), Mr. Miller gained 40 pounds, couldn't sleep for more than a couple of hours at a time and suffered through many other changes. He sold the yacht 'Utopia" . He says he had spent only about two weeks on "Utopia," which he bought mostly for his wife. They are now divorced. He checks financial news at midnight when he could not sleep. If there was a big drop somewhere, he got out of bed, put on running pants and usually a Santa Fe Institute T-shirt, went downstairs to his home office, booted up his computer and began the workday in the middle of the night. "It is relatively hard to get back to sleep when everything is falling apart," he says. True to form, he sold the yacht in 2009 to plow more money into the pummeled stock market. He says he had spent only about two weeks on "Utopia," which he bought mostly for his wife. They are now divorced. Value Trust rebounded sharply, but it was too little, too late. In 2011, Legg Mason named a successor to Mr. Miller, saying the move was part of a long-term succession plan hatched before the crisis. He stepped down as Value Trust's manager in April 2012, leaving Mr. Miller in charge of the smaller Opportunity Trust fund. Legg Mason says he wasn't asked to step aside. A gambler is on his winning streaks again right now, of course at a time when the market is up.

He sells only for $200 for the most powerful trading system on earth. It does not make any sense. It should worth at least $2 million. He won't achieve Madoff's level if he starts at this low level. LOL This is author introduction on Amazon: Harry Long is the inventor of Structural Arbitrage and the Managing Partner of Contrarian Industries LLC, a firm that specializes in proprietary trading, systematic investment research, and strategic consulting. Mr. Long is a globally recognized expert on the research and development of empirical investment strategies. As a consultant, Mr. Long is sought after by asset management firms, hedge funds, principal trading organizations, index providers, ETP sponsors, and private equity firms to help them develop and deploy benchmark crushing systematic investment strategies. Mr. Long is a graduate of Rice University with a B.A. in Economics.

Speculation on market top is as dangerous as speculation on stock price for next week or next month. Expensive market can become even more expensive. Madness can continue for another year or two. One “Common Man Investor” may not be a good indication of market top. There may be hundreds or thousands of “Common Man Investors” joining the market and pushing the market even higher next month. Buy a great business that is run by great manager at cheap price. Have good sleep at night. Do not worry about the market.

I totally disagree. ;) Garri Kasparov and Peter Thiel did not look at the right places for innovations. For past three decades. Our innovation activities have been focused in financial field, not the material field. Top talents from Harvard, Columbia, MIT, Stanford and etc have been all participated in the financial innovations, particularly in the derivative products. We have CDO, CDO squared and etc. (sorry, I can name all of them.) 8)

Bill Miller has lost his investor's money in absolute terms in his investment career, but made himself fabulously rich. A chain is just as strong as its weakest link. Bill Miller may be smart in some ways, but he has a weak link in his mental model. For mutual fund, it has small AUM when it goes up and it has largest AUM when it is ready to fall. Although Miller beat S&P 500 15 years in a row, he build his reputation gradually and AUM increases gradually. His AUM reaches the highest just when he had the disaster performance. His fund had more than $20 billion under management at the peak. He lost 58% of the money in 2008. After losses and redemptions, only $4.3 billion was left. He wiped out all the money he has made over his career in a single year and some. However, he has made a lot of money during the process. His fund charges like 2% of AUM, the highest in mutual funds. Although he lost like $10 billion in 2008, he still charges 2% fee and he kept all the fees he has made over the years. In 2006, he bought a 235-foot yacht, "Utopia." 'What matters is how much you make when you're right. If you're wrong nine times out of 10 and your stocks go to zero -- but the tenth one goes up 20 times -- you'll be just fine.” –Bill Miller. Is he a gambler or what? If you are a gambler, you will suffer a gambler’s feat sooner or later, no matter how much you have won. In Miller’s case, he has won 15 year of beating S&P 500.

What's their 1 year, 5 year and 10 year return? It is hard to find in the AR. It is irritating to me when the return information is hard to find in an annual report of a hedge fund or a mutual fund. I remember Bill Miller. It is the first things first in his report to report the return number when he beat S&P 500 15 years in a row. But, it became hard to find in his letter when he lagged the market. A good manager should be equally candid on bad result and good result.

Hire her for what ;) She said that she wants in ;)

I do not think that this is the 3G Capital that joined Buffett to buy HEINZ. The principle who joined Buffett is Jorge Paulo Lemann, who is long time friend of Buffett. Wonder if the brothers will become the 3rd/4th on the BRK investment team after Coombs/Weschler? They are 31!!

Thanks. Great interview: Why did you close the fund: protect current customers, not diluting current positions. Plan for permanent capital: stay tuned.

73% agree that HLF is a pyramid scheme on CNN poll http://money.cnn.com/poll/investing/2013/01/11/herbalife-business/results.html

It is not intelligent to short any stocks, even a fraud. It is a better way to make money by investing in BRK. COSTCO or GEICO and other businesses that provide meaningful services to the world. Charlie Munger Quote:" You are fighting a pig in the mud. You both get dirty, but the pig enjoys it."

Chanticleer is not in the same league of Geico, Washington post or Netjet in terms of business moat and Mr. Pruitt is not in the same league of the CEOs of the mentioned companies, in my humble opinion. Michael D. Pruitt became the RCG's Chief Executive Officer and President on November 8, 2000. The last 10K filed by RCG was for the year 2005. In this report, RCG had accumulated loss of $115 million, but also listed additional paid-in capital of $121 million. Some of the losses may be from the years before his becoming CEO, but the company continues to bleed heavily after he took the leadership. In 2005, the company changed name to oneTravel and the same year Mr. Pruitt started to operate Chanticleer holdings. OneTravel group never filed a 10K and was sold in bankruptcy court for several millions. The investors of the $121 million will never see their money. Since the operation of Chanticleer holdings, the company has several rounds of capital raises (and dilutions) and a reverse split. It has raised $16.5 million, but only has managed to lose about half of it (accumulated loss of $7.3 million). If a business man is judge by the ability to raise capital, Mr. Pruitt’s has good record. However, if it is judged by the ability to grow capital, Mr. Pruitt has not proved it. I hope the future for Chanticleer will be bright. However, restaurant business is tougher than online travel business. Furthermore, international expansion has additional challenges.

Thanks for Joe and Parsad's comments. I have enjoyed reading Joe's quarterly investment letters and leaned a lot from it. Thank you very much. Sorry that I did not make clear differentiation between Chanticleer Fund and Chanticleer holdings (stock) in my comment. There is no doubt that Mr. Pruitt may be a great entrepreneur and smart value investor, but I have not seen it in term of track record. He started Chanticleer after his early business endeavor went into bankrupt. Chanticleer Holdings has only accumulated losses so far. I do hope that the next decade of Chanticleer will be dramatically different from last decade, but I do not invest my own money based on "hope". Buffett's first principle is "never loss". This should be applied to stock investment as well as business endeavors. A shrewd business man should have the ability to pick his spot that he has high possibility of success and makes good return on his investment. A lost decade is difficult to make-up on the road to wealth-building by the rule of compounding.

Several years ago, I thought about investment in Chanticleer fund since it is a value fund and did some background research on Mr. Pruitt. I concluded that Mr. Pruitt’s business involvements and his records made me uncomfortable and I did not invest. I still think so about Mr. Pruitt and investment in his company today. Businesses that Mr. Pruitt has involved come to the market to raise capital periodically, but the operations continue to accumulate substantial losses. “These conditions raise substantial doubt about Chanticleer Holdings, Inc. and Subsidiaries’ ability to continue as a going concern.” The auditor of the company concluded in 10K of 2011. One early company that Mr. Pruitt involved was Resource Capital Group. He was CEO. The company later changed name to RCG companies INC; and again changed its name to oneTravel Group. Eventually, oneTravel group went bankrupt. This is what I find from sec docs at that time. The Hooter venture by Chanticleer may be promising, but I see no different than other start-up ventures. There is no certainty for success. There is no margin of safety. 10 K auditor reports: “The accompanying consolidated financial statements have been prepared assuming that Chanticleer Holdings, Inc. and Subsidiaries will continue as a going concern. As discussed in Note 1 to the consolidated financial statements, Chanticleer Holdings, Inc. has incurred substantial net losses and negative cash flows from operations for the past several years, along with negative working capital. In addition, the Company has future plans that may require substantial financial obligations. There can be no assurance that the Company will be able to generate sufficient cash revenues to fund its current operations and fulfill its future commitments. These conditions raise substantial doubt about Chanticleer Holdings, Inc. and Subsidiaries’ ability to continue as a going concern. Management’s plans regarding these matters are also described in Note 1. The consolidated financial statements do not include any adjustments that may result from the outcome of these uncertainties.”

First of all, I agree with other’s comments on the warming up of the housing market. In D.C./Maryland/Virginia, a good short sale can get multiple offers with a day on the market. Regarding to investing in the rental property, I ‘d like to make comments based on my own experiences. A little more than 2 years ago, I decided to get my hands dirty and started to buy distressed properties for rental. So far, I have bought 3 properties with leverage (mortgage) and have a contract to buy another. My total invested capital is $130K (including down payments, closing costs and repairs). Total market value of the 3 properties is about $680K. My annual net cash flow is $15000-$17000 depending on maintenance costs and $10000+ pay down of principle. The cap rate is more than 10%. If I use the cash flow to pay extra principle, the mortgage can be paid off in 10 years. In DC market, the appreciation potential is pretty good in the next 10 years. I expect my initial investment of $130000 will become $1.3 mil in 10 years. My first property has been rented for more than a year. I manage the properties myself. So far, I have enjoyed the process. The only repair was to replace the dryer in the unit. The tenants all have paid their rent on time. The key is to screen out potential bad tenants at first place. I do not consider myself real estate investor. I am just a capital allocator. The numbers were too good to pass by when looked at it two years ago. It is a good opportunity and I have not regretted.

Netflix stock price falls below Tilson's buying (long) price again. Will he buy more as he originally said? Will he lose money on both long and short of Netflix? Time will tell.

Dwolla's system only does a small part of paypal and charges much, much higher price than paypal. For paypal, if the money is personal fund transfer, the cost is ZERO. My tenant pays rent using paypal all the time, paypal does not charge me or my tenant. Paypal only charges a fee for purchase. In this case, paypal is responsible for the buyer to get the quality product and the seller gets the money. I do not think that this company can do it with $0.25 fee. I do not see any competitive advantage of Dwolla over paypal.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703551304576260871791710428.html Leucadia has 4 jets and personal use by the executives is excessive according to this WSJ article. In 2009, Leucadia National Corp., a New York City-based conglomerate, reported less than $30,000 on personal flying for Chairman Ian Cumming. FAA records show Leucadia's four jets that year spent 220 hours flying to or from Jackson Hole, Wyo., and New York's Hamptons, both locations where Mr. Cumming owns homes. Those flights alone would have cost $708,000, according to Journal calculations using hourly operating-cost estimates provided by Conklin & de Decker Aviation Information, a consulting firm.

FUR reported year end result for 2010: NI: $ 0.72/share FFO: $1.41/share Equity: $310 million Total diluted shares: 23 million BV: $13.5/share “We deployed $160.6 million in a variety of deep value real estate investments including below replacement cost assets, deeply discounted bonds and non performing loans.” Overall, a decent year. I'd like to see that they bought at the low of the market. Fur is traded at 90% of book value.

If I were the CEO, I would keep all the profit to myself and wouldn't share with others.