petec Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Picking away at some energy names. Just like Seth.... 13F Insights: Seth Klarman Says Goodbye To Deep Value NOVEMBER 16, 2015 Seth Klarman's Baupost Group is trading in deep value stocks for flawed commodity ones, or so it would seem. Unless, of course, you're one of those that believes commodities can be considered deep value. In which case, you probably shouldn't be reading this to begin with. Now to the fun - Klarman added 47% to his Cheniere Energy (LNG) position, which is still the fund's largest holding - making up 18% of the portfolio. It kept the Viasat (VSAT) position steady - 2nd largest - and added Alcoa (AA) to the portfolio ti make it the 3rd largest holding. With that - Klarman's exposure to the materials industry goes from nil last quarter to 14%. And Energy stocks still make up 39% of his portfolio. Cheniere is not a play on commodity prices, that might sound ridiculous considering it sells liquid natural gas, but the core theme behind the investment is not a rebound in commodities prices. Actually you could make a very good argument that low natural gas prices, and even low oil, will help Cheniere bc it is a low cost provider. The company gets paid a fixed fee from customers. Any rebound in international LNG prices is just additional upside. what is the core idea behind the investment? contractually locked in cash flows trading cheap - *but* its marketing business definitely benefits from the spread between US gas prices and international LNG prices. Since (for now - this won't last) international LNG prices are set off oil, it has sold off hard with the oil price. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheAiGuy Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 RYCEY, V Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wachtwoord Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 I'm buying Tableau (DATA). What's your thesis? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatientCheetah Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Picking away at some energy names. Just like Seth.... 13F Insights: Seth Klarman Says Goodbye To Deep Value NOVEMBER 16, 2015 Seth Klarman's Baupost Group is trading in deep value stocks for flawed commodity ones, or so it would seem. Unless, of course, you're one of those that believes commodities can be considered deep value. In which case, you probably shouldn't be reading this to begin with. Now to the fun - Klarman added 47% to his Cheniere Energy (LNG) position, which is still the fund's largest holding - making up 18% of the portfolio. It kept the Viasat (VSAT) position steady - 2nd largest - and added Alcoa (AA) to the portfolio ti make it the 3rd largest holding. With that - Klarman's exposure to the materials industry goes from nil last quarter to 14%. And Energy stocks still make up 39% of his portfolio. Cheniere is not a play on commodity prices, that might sound ridiculous considering it sells liquid natural gas, but the core theme behind the investment is not a rebound in commodities prices. Actually you could make a very good argument that low natural gas prices, and even low oil, will help Cheniere bc it is a low cost provider. The company gets paid a fixed fee from customers. Any rebound in international LNG prices is just additional upside. what is the core idea behind the investment? contractually locked in cash flows trading cheap - *but* its marketing business definitely benefits from the spread between US gas prices and international LNG prices. Since (for now - this won't last) international LNG prices are set off oil, it has sold off hard with the oil price. anyone found a good analysis on counterparty credit risk qualities? feels similar to KMI's situation, market questions its contracts would hold up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwoCitiesCapital Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Since my short of NFLX had worked out pretty well as high-beta exposure to the S&P, I've decided to try it again with another momentum stock that's bounced real hard off it's recent bottoms. I shorted a very small amount of TSLA today as a high-beta exposure to SPY downside. Current short position is as follows: -7% SPY -1.5% IWM -0.7% TSLA +0.5% 1/2017 SPY puts at 140 Also sold some covered calls against BBRY, VALE, CHK after the recent rally. Had other orders out but they didn't fill :/ We'll see if this more than just a bounce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Grey512 Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Long TWTR. Long PCLN. Short COTY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EricSchleien Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Bought some Buckle (BKE) last week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewbieD Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 I bought a few more shares of Goog after looking at this: Also sold some index futures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CorpRaider Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Short COTY. Very interesting. I've been looking to get long but it seems to never get in the zip code of cheap before JAB takes another slug. I've been sort of fascinated with the Reiman family and Bart Becht since they took me out of the coffee spin from Sara Lee. I like to listen to the COTY quarterly calls as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frommi Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 OTCM,NOV,ETP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatientCheetah Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 SWN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Graham Osborn Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 TGA sans Brent rally. Still short ETP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Schwab711 Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 OTCM,NOV,ETP How are you valuing OTCM and what's your IV estimate? What's your growth/discount assumptions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frommi Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 OTCM,NOV,ETP How are you valuing OTCM and what's your IV estimate? What's your growth/discount assumptions? I think fair value is around ev/ebitda 12. At the current multiple i don't need growth to make a reasonable return. Including the special dividend it has a 7% yield on a monopoly like business and p/fcf is around 10 with a cash rich company that has grown by >20% in the past years. Never seen something that cheap and good before. Maybe i just miss something important. :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marazul Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 CFO left around 6 months ago, possibly means zero but would take it into consideration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Palantir Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Selling BRK.B today. Will keep 1 share just for the annual meetings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frommi Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Bought more OTCM and hedged my portfolio again. Will stay long short now until september or october. Will see how the waves unfold further, but i have that nagging feeling that in 2016 a zero return will not be that bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thepupil Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Selling BRK.B today. Will keep 1 share just for the annual meetings. did you replace w/ cash? Or another stock. if so, which? curious on why you held pre-annual report and are selling now? price / value seems to have not changed much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merkhet Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Selling BRK.B today. Will keep 1 share just for the annual meetings. You don't need to own a share to go to the meetings. You can just pay $5 for shareholder passes from Berkshire on eBay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Palantir Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Selling BRK.B today. Will keep 1 share just for the annual meetings. did you replace w/ cash? Or another stock. if so, which? curious on why you held pre-annual report and are selling now? price / value seems to have not changed much. Nothing has changed, but while BRK is still undervalued, the upside is not so great. I'm replacing with PAGP and OKE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grym02 Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Bought more OTCM and hedged my portfolio again. Will stay long short now until september or october. Will see how the waves unfold further, but i have that nagging feeling that in 2016 a zero return will not be that bad. Couple of questions on OTCM. - What do you think normalized operating margins are? OPM% has increased very significantly in the past 5-7 years (more then 1000bps), it looks cheap-ish on current numbers but is there a risk margins are at peak levels? If not, what has been driving the margin increase? - How do you think about ongoing dilution? - Threat of regulation? Any risk this business is taken away or substantially haircut via regulatory action? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frommi Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Couple of questions on OTCM. - What do you think normalized operating margins are? OPM% has increased very significantly in the past 5-7 years (more then 1000bps), it looks cheap-ish on current numbers but is there a risk margins are at peak levels? If not, what has been driving the margin increase? - How do you think about ongoing dilution? - Threat of regulation? Any risk this business is taken away or substantially haircut via regulatory action? Margin expansion here was driven by fixed cost and increasing revenues, as long as the number of companies on the marketplace doesn`t shrink i don`t see margins compress. That can happen in a 2008 style market, so i sized it accordingly. (Its a 3.5% position for me) Dilution was pretty low, for me it looks like these guys are very shareholder friendly. Yes regulation is a threat, thats the unknown for me here. There are some writeups on Seeking Alpha and VIC, you can look them up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwoCitiesCapital Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Sold about 10% of my ATUSF position today (after tactically adding 20-25% at prices below $6). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wachtwoord Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Sold about 10% of my ATUSF position today (after tactically adding 20-25% at prices below $6). I'm also planning to reduce my oversized (relative) position but waiting for a little higher prices (~15%) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Palantir Posted March 4, 2016 Share Posted March 4, 2016 Sold GNCMA, should have sold earlier, don't want to hold this stock while EBITDA is flat/slightly lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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