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Everything posted by merkhet

  1. Yea, but the one-upmanship is sort of what I'm talking about. How do we know these people aren't just 4chan-faking it because it's fun to watch people think their posts are real? (FWIW, there's definitely froth out there, but I don't know that r/wallstreetbets is where I'd go for a good representative sample of the market. Basically, I'm wondering about the possibility of confirmation bias in seeing/thinking there is froth in the market and then seeing r/wallstreetbets and thinking that it's more real than it is. It could all be kayfabe for all we know.)
  2. Are we sure that folks on reddit aren't just... lying? I mean, it's the internet. People lie on the internet.
  3. I thought the flickering of the green light across the water was the GM plant in the background. Oh man, this changes everything.
  4. Haha, 24 year old me made... interesting... choices. My last apartment before leaving NYC was a block away from Union Square because it allowed me to easily stumble home drunk @ 3am. Also, it was next to a number of bars, and I could easily bounce someone from the bar to my apartment. (“My apartment is just a few doors down.”) Fair enough! I would say that even compared to Austin (or even Dallas, where I live now) there’s a huge gap in terms of things to do, cultural aspects, etc. The fact that there’s only a $1k/month difference between Atlanta & Chelsea is probably bullish NYC IMO. But, of course, this is all dependent on life stage! 37 year old me has a wife and a kid, so Dallas is great!
  5. +1 to both -- if you're a young and single person, you will almost certainly be back in NYC in a few years regardless of whether you can do your work from Des Moines -- because then you would have to live in Des Moines. thepupil inspired me to take a look at my old apartment in NYC. https://bit.ly/2IMTBJ8 The gross rent is maybe two hundred bucks north of where it was when I moved to NYC in 2007. As a 24 year old newly minted lawyer, I was more than happy to apply part of my $160k salary (now $190k for anyone starting NYC Biglaw) to a nice crib. Y'all are crazy if you think people won't want to live in NYC again.
  6. That is about the best post I ever read on this subject. Parsad is doing the right thing. +1 agreed on all the above
  7. I suppose it depends on the reason behind the thumb sucking. Was it fear of the unknown, inattention to what was going on, greed because of wanting to wait for an even better deal? etc.
  8. Bingo. I joined this board in 2012/13 when the financial system had recovered; yet market prices were still under 2007 highs. What a great time for investment discussion! Systematic risk had largely been removed but prices were still depressed. Over the following 6-7 years, we have seen prices rise, and even outpace earnings. Market price was driven less and less by individual company earnings and more by macro policies. Therefore (to me) it is no surprise that the conversation has shifted to those macro factors (including politics, which impacts these policies). Additionally there is some nostalgia you may be experiencing. When I went back and read some posts from 2012-2014, the quality was not as good as "I remembered". Usually we just remember the good stuff, and ignore the mediocre. I think the signal-noise ratio was much higher. There are a lot more Harry Longs these days. It was once mentioned that the next time we have a crisis, the really good posters would come back (similar to what you’re saying re too many years of rising prices meaning not much to talk about) but March passed by and I didn’t see folks return. (Maybe stuff wasn’t cheap long enough.) RTF is right though — increased popularity of the board + Gresham’s Law has had an effect. I don’t mean this to sound too much like a criticism. I just started re-reading Poor Charlie’s Almanack, and he mentions that it’s no great tragedy for someone to bemoan that Berkshire gave them 50 years with Buffett at the helm, and then they’ll get someone who isn’t quite as good. I feel similarly about this board.
  9. Unfortunately, politics leaks from the politics board onto other subjects all the time. I have found this board less and less useful since around 2013 or so -- many of the old posters are no longer as active as they used to be -- but that's just the nature of the beast.
  10. Thanks cherzeca & rkbabang. Will log this in the parental files for the future.
  11. +1 My wife and I are expecting our first child in October, so this story hit me pretty hard. We spent a good bit of this week discussing how we might make sure to impart to our child that there is always a way out. I can't imagine what those parents are going through.
  12. I've posted this elsewhere, but IIRC, someone else runs the public equities portfolio these days. I think Klarman focuses on private stuff, credit, and real estate.
  13. I agree some really good posters have reduced or eliminated their activity. However I was reading some old threads from 2011-2014 (or so) and was expecting the dialogue to be at a higher level - but actually I found it very similar to recent years. I was surprised to be seeing personal attacks, political bickering, faulty logic (your returns sucked last year, your analysis must be wrong!), etc. I think perhaps there is some nostalgia at play :D That could be true! I recall thinking the signal to noise ratio was better back then, but I could be wrong!
  14. In aggregate, this forum has gotten worse since around 2013 or so. I remember there were people talking about this back then and the response was that it would get better when markets tanked again because the old posters would come back -- that hasn't happened, but, as bizaro86 said, post-COVID, there have been some great posts by a few folks on here.
  15. Does the 30 year old not have significant career risk in doing that? I think Buffett and Zell have been relatively straight shooters (particularly Zell) about the opportunities they see at any point in time. I don't think they would have any reason to waver now unless they truly saw a wide range of outcomes. Also, Buffett was about 78 when he went through the Great Recession, so taking his comments and assigning some risk-averse age argument doesn't hold water to me. It's kind of interesting Buffett's comments about $137 billion not being that much in the context of worst-case outcomes. That is a way different tone than his "we only need $20 billion to survive even the worst catastrophe" , and suggests to me he thinks coronavirus will be a huge issue for insurers, not dissimilar to what Dupperrault and others have said. Maybe these guys are simply operating in areas (insurance and real estate) where there is close to maximum uncertainty right now about how things play out. During 2008 perhaps Buffett could pick up bargains because he knew his insurance subs were not as exposed to 2008 risks as the current insurance business is to the fallout from the pandemic? I’ve been thinking and talking to people about this a lot. If you look back a few decades ago, both Warren & Charlie groused a lot about what they called “social inflation” in insurance. Things that weren’t covered became covered because it was politically palatable to do so. I suspect they are worried about some pain sharing that the politicians might inflict on insurance carriers.
  16. I received a survey from a theater that I like in Dallas called Alamo Drafthouse (it's like Studio Movie Grill, basically they serve food & drinks while you watch your movie) that asked how we would feel about things like (a) two ticket minimums, (b) a minimum guarantee on food & drink orders, etc. Basically making sure that it's worth it for them to open again.
  17. This plan is stupid. If your plan is to fix antitrust, then fix antitrust.
  18. Possibly loss of muscle mass if you can't work out at home.
  19. I’ve probably lost about five pounds. 165 —> 160.
  20. I think that was a few years back. My understanding was that the fund was no longer levered the last few years, but I could be wrong.
  21. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-comic-strip-tour-of-the-wild-world-of-pandemic-modeling/
  22. I think it's difficult to know how this plays out because it's path dependent on how/why we get past it. It's like a matrix. You have to figure out (A) speed of finding a path out, and (B) method of finding a path out. (B) is somewhat linked to (A). For instance, if we find a cure/anti-viral that works to treat it soon? Economic hit is much less hard. Fewer SMB bankruptcies etc. If it takes us 12-18 months to find a vaccine, then the economic hit is different, and it'll be dependent on whether we can open up in the interim or if, somehow, we end up not being able to open up in the interim. The cone of uncertainty is quite wide here.
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