EricSchleien Posted December 16, 2015 Posted December 16, 2015 Arbing KCLI for the buyout tonight (249 shares) Bought a ton more Dundee today
Alpaca Posted December 16, 2015 Posted December 16, 2015 Increasing junk bond short positions. Oil is down 4.5%, yet junk bonds are soaring on a rate hike? Thanks for the wonderful opportunity.
sculpin Posted December 17, 2015 Posted December 17, 2015 Maxim Power (MXG -TSX) $2.85 Canadian Maxim Power (MXG – TSX) currently $2.85/share is one that we have been holding onto for several years waiting for the value in its various assets to be realized. Following discussions with management and other holders it appears that value realization should begin to take place in 2016. Catalysts Upcoming Sale of Comax – our 100% owned independent utility in France is expected by early Q1. Settlement of FERC (Federal Energy Regulatory Commission) lawsuit should be close. This is what led to the cancellation of the previous sale of Maxim’s US assets (MUSA). Expected settlement is small compared to the value of this asset. Once this is resolved Maxim US can be sold. Settlement of Alberta Line Loss lawsuit should bring in substantial cash (see below in NAV) by Q2 2016. Once MUSA & Comax are sold Maxim will hold significant cash and its Alberta assets which can then be sold. Valuation To properly value Maxim, it is necessary to do a SOTP valuation. Currently the Company has 54MM shares out for a market cap of $150 million. Debt only resides in its French & US subsidiaries and will be extinguished upon their divestiture. Book value is currently $5.09 or close to double the current share price. Management has consistently stated that investors will see at least book value upon sale of the Company. Comax assets – Potentially $45MM after debt repayment. Line Loss Settlement – gross loss to be repaid to Maxim is $35MM - 40MM – with penalties, interest and legal fees going back 10 years the final amount Maxim may recoup is up to $70MM. Maxim USA – the value of this asset has appreciated strongly with EBITDA expected to hit over $40MM in 2018 as electricity capacity payments triple and NE US coal & other power plants are retired. Management now believes the value of this asset is close to $200MM after debt ($3.70 per share alone). This is confirmed by a recent analysis by Industrial Alliance: “Recent gas asset transactions indicate substantial potential value for MXG’s US fleet relative to the current stock price. In Q3 we witnessed a trio of transactions for merchant natural gas-fired capacity in the US Northeast, with implied multiples in the 7-10x EV/EBITDA range. Although no two assets (or two transactions) are directly identical, if we apply the multiples from the recent transactions to MXG’s US fleet, we arrive at a valuation range of US$140-200M (US$115-175M, net of ~US$25M in associated debt). After currency conversion, the valuation range implies $2.75-4.20/share (compared with MXG’s $2.58 share price). In other words, MXG is trading below the market value of its US assets alone (assuming nothing for France or Alberta). ” Totaling the expected proceeds from above nets approximately $280 to $315MM in cash to the Canadian holding company which has substantial tax loss carry forwards in place. Per share this amounts to $5.15 to $5.80 per share prior to the value of the Canadian power and development assets. The Canadian assets include: Summit Metallurgical coal with 18.9 million tons of high quality met coal with a book value of $25MM Emission credits recently sold for cash of $5MM with an additional $15MM at the same pricing Milner coal/NG generating plant with approval for a new 520MW NG fired plant in the same location with all electrical connections, water license, fuel delivery infrastructure and ops team. Milner can currently run as a peaker plant on either coal or NG until 2019 generating up to $20MM Ebitda/annum Construction ready 190 MW NG fired peaking station approved in Bruderheim Alberta Approved 200 MW wind generation project in SW Alberta waiting on improved Alberta pricing and NDP driven wind power purchase agreements to allow for economic operation. Maxim should hold in excess of $5 per share in cash along with the above listed Alberta assets at some point in the next year. The entire Company could then be sold (hopefully into an improving Alberta power market) by sometime in 2017 at the cash level plus the value resident in the Alberta assets. This value could be substantial given the Alberta NDP & federal governments’ desire to see faster retirement of coal gen capacity (50% of current Alberta generation) and replacement with cleaner NG and wind generation. MXG put out estimate of compensation & ongoing cost savings from line loss at Milner today…. MAXIM estimates the compensation that it will be afforded to be approximately $38 million for the period January 1, 2006 to December 31, 2015 based on information currently available on the public record. This amount excludes compensation for Milner’s cost of capital and legal costs, which will also be determined in Module C. On a go forward basis, the new Rule is expected to reduce Milner’s ongoing operating costs by approximately $3 to $5 million annually, based on current forward pool prices. http://www.financialbuzz.com/maxim-power-corp-provides-guidance-on-alberta-utilities-commission-s-loss-factor-decision-378844
finetrader Posted December 17, 2015 Posted December 17, 2015 I bought some Telus(T) today, hopefully for a short term trade profit if (when) it bounce back up.
kab60 Posted December 17, 2015 Posted December 17, 2015 I sold all my stocks about two weeks ago (luckily before OUTR crashed) because of a real estate investment I couldn't pass on. Today I bought Clarke Inc and Corus Entertainment for my pension account.
TwoCitiesCapital Posted December 17, 2015 Posted December 17, 2015 Sold all of my SBLK and IBM this week. SBLK is because with China slowing down and the Fed hiking rates, I'm concerned to be involved with leveraged entities in an oversupplied, unprofitable industry when demand may start collapsing. IBM was sold to reduce leverage in the portfolio so I could use the margin to increase my short to the SPY. I just have a hard time of making sense of anything bullish about raising rates as profits fall. And it's not just that profits are falling, margins have begun to contract too. If the $ continues to rise and we actually see wage pressures that everyone was talking about this year, then it will only get worse. Removing liquidity from a system on elevated multiples with declining profits/margins seems like it's a disaster scenario. God forbid you get deflationary CPI prints on top of it. Bearishness aside - I sold some bond funds in my passive low P/B portfolio that were there for liquidity purposes. Proceeds were dumped into various energy and commodity companies now that prices have cratered again.
DTEJD1997 Posted December 20, 2015 Posted December 20, 2015 hey all: I'm raising cash generally...but am nibbling at some things... I feel that the "ground is shaky" or perhaps it is my footing is shaky? This has been a rough year for me, but I'm initiating some positions. One that I got some shares Friday was BDCO at $4.10/share. I will start a thread on this and share my thoughts.
Lance Posted December 21, 2015 Posted December 21, 2015 Over the last few days I've bought a basket of closed end funds (BGH, DSL, DHY, PCI and PDI). Thanks, Lance
TwoCitiesCapital Posted December 22, 2015 Posted December 22, 2015 Sold all of my SBLK and IBM this week. SBLK is because with China slowing down and the Fed hiking rates, I'm concerned to be involved with leveraged entities in an oversupplied, unprofitable industry when demand may start collapsing. IBM was sold to reduce leverage in the portfolio so I could use the margin to increase my short to the SPY. I just have a hard time of making sense of anything bullish about raising rates as profits fall. And it's not just that profits are falling, margins have begun to contract too. If the $ continues to rise and we actually see wage pressures that everyone was talking about this year, then it will only get worse. Removing liquidity from a system on elevated multiples with declining profits/margins seems like it's a disaster scenario. God forbid you get deflationary CPI prints on top of it. Bearishness aside - I sold some bond funds in my passive low P/B portfolio that were there for liquidity purposes. Proceeds were dumped into various energy and commodity companies now that prices have cratered again. Purchased Jan 2017 SPY puts @ 170 for $6.84. Now straight short about 7% of my portfolio and synthetically short with puts another 17% for ~25% total notional exposure. Fairfax is also about an 8-9% position for me to and I include that with my "bearish" bets even though it's much more than that and could decline in a market sell-off. At this point, I have sufficient downside-profiting exposure to go back to increasing my holdings in ATUSF, PDER, SAN, SBRCY, and WFM with each incremental dollar.
Spekulatius Posted December 23, 2015 Posted December 23, 2015 I bought OKE bonds ( the 2022,2023 maturities), WMB and added a bit to SE and WCC the last 2 days. The MLP midstream sector looks way oversold and is due for a bounce, imo.
feynmanresearch Posted December 23, 2015 Posted December 23, 2015 WPT- World Point Terminals What's your short thesis on WPT?
kab60 Posted December 27, 2015 Posted December 27, 2015 WPT- World Point Terminals What's your short thesis on WPT? I don't have one - I'm long @ 12.10. What's your take?
PatientCheetah Posted December 30, 2015 Posted December 30, 2015 Videocon d2h, Radiant Logistics i started looking at videocon d2h, it reported decent metrics but the stock did not react as positively as I would have imagined
kab60 Posted December 31, 2015 Posted December 31, 2015 Videocon d2h, Radiant Logistics i started looking at videocon d2h, it reported decent metrics but the stock did not react as positively as I would have imagined Agreed. I also thought guidance was really strong. There might be macro/India fear involved?
frommi Posted January 4, 2016 Posted January 4, 2016 Sold LVNTA/EXPE because the discount has gone down to single digits, bought CABO and BBBY.
blainehodder Posted January 4, 2016 Posted January 4, 2016 AAPL, DIS, TWTR, CMG, BRK.B, USB, WFC Fun day in megacap land.
KJP Posted January 5, 2016 Posted January 5, 2016 Videocon d2h, Radiant Logistics i started looking at videocon d2h, it reported decent metrics but the stock did not react as positively as I would have imagined Agreed. I also thought guidance was really strong. There might be macro/India fear involved? Do you have any background on the Dhoots and their treatment of minority shareholders? I've only heard an unflattering whisper or two, but don't have any firsthand knowledge.
Lance Posted January 6, 2016 Posted January 6, 2016 Recently bought AFL and STX. Will likely buy more AXP this week. Thanks, Lance
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