What are you buying today?

[Valuebo]

Good to see I'm not the only one with some shorts. I did sell 60% of SPY short and shorted a good chunck of FDN instead. Should have added IBB short as well I guess! ;)

[TwoCitiesCapital]

Shorted some SPY shares. Yesterday's failure to close above 2000, along with slipping below long-term moving averages, on the S&P gives me some comfort that the momentum is firmly downwards with prior supports acting as resistance.

 

Options are still expensive so I haven't re-initiated my puts after selling for a sizable gain. To recap:

 

1) Fundamentally expensive

2) Earnings growth likely to shift negative on stronger dollar

3) If wages pick up (I doubt they will, but is the bull case for the economy), then margins will likely be pressured exacerbating #2

4) Globe seems dangerously close of falling into a global recession.

 

It's not a huge position - just something to give me a little comfort knowing that I'm profiting some if I'm right as opposed to sitting on the sidelines. Will switch to options if I can eventually get back into some LEAPS for a reasonable premium/implied vol.

 

Sold VALE 11/20/15 PUTS @ 4 for $0.25

 

Doubled my SPY short today. Also sold FCAU 11/20/15 PUTS @12 for $0.60.

 

Now I've got around a 4-5% outright short, another 7% or so in cash, 10% or so in Fairfax, and have selectively sold calls against positions to generate yield as prices fall. Will continue to add to the short position if my various cash-covered puts are exercised.

 

Sold BBRY 11/20/15 PUTS @ $7 for $0.67.

 

Continuing to pair increase in short exposure with short-term cash secured puts. May short more SPY if we get back above 200 level.

 

Sold more SPY short as it looks like certain puts that I've sold in in prior months will likely be executed on come 10/16. Will reduce if prices revert but want to hedge proactively instead of re-actively. Something tells me sentiment is changing and that U.S. stocks might begin their mean reversion here.

 

Also, sold WFM 11/20/15 CALLS @ 35 for $0.45

[Ross812]

Finished buying CHKDG today. Convertible cumulative 5% preferred stock trading at $50 with a $100 par value so it's yielding 10%. Converts to 2.76 common shares at the holder's discretion. Trades at a discount to CHK-PD (4.5% convertible (2.46:1) preferred) for some reason. I bought over several weeks from $45-52. I've owned this before. I bought when Aubry was on his way out at $70 and sold in the high 90's.   

[gurpaul88]

Hey Ross, kinda off topic but whatever happened to the CoBF stock pick portfolio you use to have up?

[sculpin]

Canadian Rate Reset Preferreds.

 

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/investment-ideas/interest-rates-provide-answers-about-plunging-preferred-shares/article24013205/

 

Gotten worse in September...

 

Preferred shares suffered their third consecutive month of significant price declines, returning -3.82% in August. The market action last month strongly resembled that of the summer of 2013, when the Taper Tantrum caused preferred shares to selloff and then recover sharply in the autumn of that year. With price declines occurring on low volumes and selling indiscriminately spreading from low reset spread issues to all types of preferred shares, the decline of the market during August appeared to be capitulation by some retail investors giving up on the asset class.

 

[Lance]

I bought small amounts of BBL, GSK a and RDSb today.

 

Thanks

Lance

[rpadebet]

Bought:

1) RLGT (sold off with other platform companies, but this one has little debt and is now trading at 7x 2016 EBITDA with huge  growth +cost synergies possible in 2016.

2) LILAK (just keep averaging down as long as the market allows)

3) BABA (Keep adding in small increments)

 

Sold (to fund above purchases)

1)FAST (sold at a 5% loss, but performed better than market in this downdraft, still like it,but a sell relative to the buys)

2)CTSH (long held position, sold at 100%+ gain, still like it, but a sell relative to the buys)

 

[Valuebo]

Added to FDN short. Bought nothing else.

[KJP]

 

1) RLGT (sold off with other platform companies, but this one has little debt and is now trading at 7x 2016 EBITDA with huge  growth +cost synergies possible in 2016.

 

 

Isn't Radiant trading at 9x-10x 2016 EBITDA?  Market cap plus existing options is about $220MM + $20MM preferred + $55MM in debt, and 2016 EBITDA of $32MM (midpoint of guidance).

[Guest Grey512]

Recently bought more FOXA, GOOGL, AAPL.

Increased VRX short.

[kab60]

More OUTR

[rpadebet]

 

1) RLGT (sold off with other platform companies, but this one has little debt and is now trading at 7x 2016 EBITDA with huge  growth +cost synergies possible in 2016.

 

 

Isn't Radiant trading at 9x-10x 2016 EBITDA?  Market cap plus existing options is about $220MM + $20MM preferred + $55MM in debt, and 2016 EBITDA of $32MM (midpoint of guidance).

 

You are right.

On yesterday's call Bohn Crain mentioned they can buy another 20mill EBITDA @5x. Assuming this happens using earnings +65mill of additional debt (which still keeps them near 2.5X Debt/EBITDA), you are looking at proforma 350mill EV at 50mill EBITDA approximately. Then you have cost/revenue synergies to consider + all the acquisition growth possible after 2016

[berkshire101]

Added to CLB and started a position in NSAM.

[rishig]

Added to CLB and started a position in NSAM.

 

berkshire101, can you explain how you think about CLB. In its best year in the last decade, it did $5.7 per share in fcf. Assume normalized fcf goes up to $6, apply a multiple of 20x (which is very generous given that revenue has grown at 10%), and you get a $120 stock. Apply higher multiple of 25x, you get $150. It it trading at ~$100. Even with these heroic assumptions, the upside seems rather limited. Why is this the attractive? What am I missing?

[saltybit]

LBTYK, AAPL, LILAK

[berkshire101]

Added to CLB and started a position in NSAM.

 

berkshire101, can you explain how you think about CLB. In its best year in the last decade, it did $5.7 per share in fcf. Assume normalized fcf goes up to $6, apply a multiple of 20x (which is very generous given that revenue has grown at 10%), and you get a $120 stock. Apply higher multiple of 25x, you get $150. It it trading at ~$100. Even with these heroic assumptions, the upside seems rather limited. Why is this the attractive? What am I missing?

 

So here's my take on it.  CLB is an asset-light business with good room to scale in an industry that's +$100 billion, especially when compare to the likes of SLB, HAL, BHI, etc.  Top line growth - revenue in this case - may seem modest relative to valuation.  It's about 10% annually.  What I look at is the bottom line and how fast it's growing, so earnings.  CLB has grown its net margins overtime.  Earnings grew like 4 times faster than revenue, and it's mainly due to CLB's value-added products and services.  It's very difficult to replicate what CLB does since they own so much historical data.  Another company that's similar is CMDXF.  Their margins are even crazier. 

 

The question is has margins peaked?  It might temporarily like it did during 2008.  Can oil go lower?  Maybe.  You have bears coming out of hiding saying $20 oil is coming.  The economics says that's not sustainable. 

 

I'm buying CLB because I believe it'll continue grow earnings in the high teens going forward.  It's currently trading around 14-15 times FCF.  20 times earnings seem fair giving the quality.  Management says they expect a V-shape rebound in oil prices early next year.  Who knows if that'll happen.  They say the Saudi's can't continue to increase production because it'll damage their reservoirs long-term and the damage is permanent. 

[frommi]

Covered the rest of my shorts on XBI. Did that with Russel 2k futures last week already and bought more LMCA, TDG, BRK, DNOW, CHRW and IBKR.

[John Hjorth]

BRK.B, SAN & INVEa.ST [investor AB, ser. A shares, NASDAQ OMX Stockholm].

[Lance]

HIX

 

Thanks

Lance

[Guest Grey512]

eBay

Rolls-Royce

[TwoCitiesCapital]

Increasing my OUTR position before earnings.

 

Added about 20% to my position at $59.15.

[gurpaul88]

Canadian Rate Reset Preferreds.

 

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/investment-ideas/interest-rates-provide-answers-about-plunging-preferred-shares/article24013205/

 

Gotten worse in September...

 

Preferred shares suffered their third consecutive month of significant price declines, returning -3.82% in August. The market action last month strongly resembled that of the summer of 2013, when the Taper Tantrum caused preferred shares to selloff and then recover sharply in the autumn of that year. With price declines occurring on low volumes and selling indiscriminately spreading from low reset spread issues to all types of preferred shares, the decline of the market during August appeared to be capitulation by some retail investors giving up on the asset class.

 

Curious, any specific names you  find compelling? TIA!

[CONeal]

I've built a position in WTW over the last couple of weeks.  Sure the debt is high but expect them to work it out and maybe refinance some of it.  Less concerned about 2016 then 2021.

[sculpin]

Canadian Rate Reset Preferreds.

 

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/investment-ideas/interest-rates-provide-answers-about-plunging-preferred-shares/article24013205/

 

Gotten worse in September...

 

Preferred shares suffered their third consecutive month of significant price declines, returning -3.82% in August. The market action last month strongly resembled that of the summer of 2013, when the Taper Tantrum caused preferred shares to selloff and then recover sharply in the autumn of that year. With price declines occurring on low volumes and selling indiscriminately spreading from low reset spread issues to all types of preferred shares, the decline of the market during August appeared to be capitulation by some retail investors giving up on the asset class.

 

Curious, any specific names you  find compelling? TIA!

 

Here you are...

 

Another Way To Play Dundee Corp.

 

http://canadianvalueinvesting.com/?p=133

 

And Transalta...

 

Another I like - TA.PR.J  - Take a look. 10% yield until reset in Sep 2019. Marginable. TA has its flaws but I don't think the Prefs will be worthless.

 

http://canadianvalueinvesting.com/?p=130

 

Couple of recent pref videos...

 

http://tdwealthmedia.com/videos/investment-opportunity-cdn-pref-shares-worth-a-second-look/

 

Wed, Oct 7, 2015 - 10:50 AM

 

The TSX preferred share index is down more than 20% in the past year as is the Horizon Active Preferred Shares ETF (HPR). What's wrong? And does this weakness (and almost 5% yield) provide an opportunity? We'll find out.

 

http://www.bnn.ca/Video/player.aspx?vid=722047

 

 

 

[frommi]

Rebuild my short position in XBI, Russel 2k futures and FTSE100 futures. Net long only ~10% now.