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Everything posted by CONeal

  1. Filled up the IRA and cash account with as much MO as I could buy today. If it drops into the mid 30's, will sell half of my GE position to buy more.
  2. It boils down to the FOMO principal "Fear Of Missing Out"
  3. Hope everyone has a Happy Thanksgiving. Eat like no one is going to see you naked.
  4. Here is a print version of the 18 biases. Very nice read and summary. https://www.fool.com/investing/general/2013/06/10/charlie-mungers-18-biases-that-cause-you-to-fool-y.aspx
  5. I empathize... But securities fraud and conspiracy unfortunately means that he's going to Club Fed. Would have been a lot of fun to get a social media feed of Shkreli in maximum security. i know it's wishful thinking.
  6. Thank god!!! That fucker has cost me enough $$$ that I hope he a very hard time is prison. And it better be a maximum security prison.
  7. Understand where they are coming from and doing this in order to build their brand. At the same time, a very slippery slope and people will always expect their money back if they lose. Personally think this is horse shit, allowing people to talk on more risk thus supporting the idea that the price can only go up.
  8. Just bought my first Fairfax shares also. Are we suppose to get a free t-shit or something? :D
  9. Inshoring has been happening for awhile now. The 1st time I had heard of it was back in 2009, when a few companies moved their technology and call centers from overseas to Arkansas. The service was more reliable and also wages were cheaper then average, not to mention the real-estate . The tax benefit from the state was an added bonus. Basically just move your company to a town that is heavy manufacturing and semi close to a college and you will get more then enough qualified and well motivated employees. If they want to quit, sure have fun in a factory bc they have a list of people waiting for a job. With telecommuting/work from home becoming more popular over the last several years a few call centers have moved to this model. A person just logs into a special computer and the company saves on real-estate.
  10. Halfway through this book and so far think it provides some great insight into the upcoming artificial intelligence age and how it could affect peoples lives. Discusses advancements in the fields and how it could affect the economy, help us benefit, etc. I have problems trying to keep up with all the changes that occur and the shifts that are caused with technology advancements. This book has helped open my eyes with the advancements and how it could impact society. This is not a investment book in the traditional sense. However, could help in identify trends that occur over the next several years. Have already found several examples from the author, that upon further research has blown my mind with how far the technology has advanced. https://www.amazon.com/Augmented-Life-Smart-Brett-King-ebook/dp/B01GV9OUWW/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1496674738&sr=8-1&keywords=augmented
  11. lookup the ticker symbol on seeking alpha. If I remember correctly, it has a few articles talking about the spread and how people think about it.
  12. Found this article where the DTCC had a successful proof of concept test for derivatives. Plan on rolling out the technology in phases beginning in 2018. http://www.coindesk.com/11-trillion-bet-dtcc-clear-derivatives-blockchain-tech/
  13. Think someone drugged my breakfast this morning. It's the only thing I can come up with to justify my actions for a retail buying spree. RL, ICON, FOSL
  14. Dycom Industries, Inc. (NYSE:DY) Took a small position since guidance for 4th qtr isn't what analyst were hoping and the stock got hammered today.
  15. Ahh, thanks for those videos. Now beginning to see how this could be used for places like a hospital. Gives me a completely different perspective of what is going on. Am I correct with the following statement? Don't focus on the cryptocurrency value attached to to the blockchain technology. Focus on the specific blockchain technology and what it's intended to do. The release of cryptocurrency is more or less a test of the validity of the underlying blockchain technology. Companies will then use the underlying technology (the blockchain copy) for their intended use.
  16. "Ethereum could be meaningful, when Goldman and JPM et al formed the Enterprise Ethereum Alliance I knew this was the one "alt-coin" to take a flyer on and my first tranche is a 10x. How often does that happen? (I should have bet it EVERYTHING I had! Just kidding). I just knew that with GS and JPM involved it was going to separate from the pack of altcoins. That said, I still haven't seen an actual application that's very far beyond the crypto-currency / blockchain / smart contract equiv. of "hello world" running on ethereum." Have looked at Cryptocurrency and played around with it for a few hours. And it keeps bringing me back to the statement above that I just can't figure out. The Enterprise Ethereum Alliance is now up to 86 members with the sole focus of working on blockchain technology. The companies in the alliance are not all banks and crytocurrency companies as now Samsung is also a member. If you take away the perceived value of a blockchain currently being assigned (cryptocurrency). What are the benefits of a blockchain and how could it be used? Is this just a piece of code to securely wrap around money transfers, so they are not hacked or is the intent to use a blockchain for some other reason that could provide some other type of benefit. Guess I'm just not understanding why this blockchain technology is being as highly touted as it currently is. I understand that this is suppose to be a more secure method for example, only specific people being able to see a classified file. How is this different and more beneficial then say password protecting an Excel file so that only the people that should have access has the password to actually see it. Or another example, encrypting a password protected file that contains names and addresses of customers. The data is already being sent over in a secure manner. How would a blockchain be any better?
  17. If you use coinbase it works like Gemini you have an account and need to trust coinbase. You could however use coinbase (or Gemini) to acquire your cryptocurrency and then send it to a wallet which you control the private keys, such as Jaxx (or another I've used is Bread Wallet, but I like Jaxx better now from a usability standpoint and the fact that it supports other currencies besides bitcoin and has Shapeshift integration. Bread Wallet is bitcoin only). coinbase and Gemini will report your transactions to the IRS, so if you use this method you should keep track of all of your buys and sells for capital gains purposes (you are legally obligated to do this in the US even if you acquire your bitcoins using cash at an ATM or from a private party). Here's a guide I found, but have not read through it, so YMMV. http://www.coindesk.com/information/ I did read "Mastering Bitcoin" by Andreas Antonopoulos which I'd recommend if you want a deeper understanding of how it all works. Not necessary to use it though. My best advice would be to open an account with coinbase or Gemini and make some small transactions to see how it works. Buy some bitcoin and ether, transfer it to your Jaxx mobile wallet, use shapeshift to convert some to Dash or something else. Get a feel for it. And yes, it might be just a bubble and you can lose money. Thank you very much. If I download it into a wallet and stored it on my PC do I need to have a fear of someone hacking my computer and stealing the wallet? If my hard drive crashed am I just screwed out of the bitcoins?
  18. For those of you that have experience with Cryptocurrencies can you please provide insight on the following. What is the best exchange to buy ETH? Is the ETH just stored on the account (ex. Gemini)? Is there an up-to-date guide on how all this works? I get confused when I read about opening wallets and the 5 other hoops you have to jump through. Any additional insight I should know (other then I will probably lose all my money)?
  19. ASNA equity is a 0. Why? Top-line is deteriorating due to full penetration of portfolio of tired brands, combined Nov / Dec comps declined 4.4% (however they had to increase promotions to drive comps) with pre-Christmas comps (i.e. first three weeks of Dec) down 10-17% Profitability is now concentrated in one brand (maurices, ~62% of profitability) which has reached penetration and as the brand moves online, will face significant competition from ecommerce players Justice, historically the Company’s second PNL generator, has collapsed under increased competition and a turnaround is unlikely given pricing pressure and erosion of store-base competitive advantage All of ASNA’s other brands are fully penetrated and contribute limited profitability Significant actual and implied leverage creates a very levered entity that drives significant decremental margins on small downward changes in sales (and vice-versa) Company put on significant leverage for its last acquisition and currently sits on $2B leverage on $580M of EBITDA (i.e. 3x+) which is a lot for a brick-and-mortar retailer, most of the public comps don’t even have debt (with far better top-line trends) In addition, ASNA has 4 concepts across 750+ stores which creates structural issues in world increasingly shifting to e-commerce Assumed lease payments of this $750M capitalized at 10x imply leverage of 5.5x+ This is an overleveraged retailer with tired brands in structural decline that could be facing negative cash flow in 2-3 years - just screams structural short. Regarding the leverage, 1.5 billion is not due until 2022. That is a ways off before they even have to really worry about the balloon payment. They are currently working in revamping the company and cutting the expenses. The entire retail sector is in the toilet and driving down sales as companies struggling to survive are cutting prices to get people in the store. Those that can weather the storm will pick up a lot of new business as the weaker ones go out of business. The term loan has been prepaid in that another payment is not due until May 2018 (I believe). This gives them time to implement "Change for Growth". They have quite a few levers that can be pulled to stay afloat until better times come. Despite what others would have people think, the entire country is not going to shift to only ecommerce. Am I saying it's a buy right now? No, for one the price is higher then I want to pay relative to valuation. They have some goodwill write offs coming up. can also think of a couple other things that need to be done. Hopefully on the earnings release a better picture will be painted on their position for the rest of the year. I think it's very premature to call the equity a 0 at this point in time.
  20. I bought RL. I believe RL has one of the strongest brand values among clothiers and that is what will help them survive during the downturn. Also, if you assume eventually everything will be sold online, I think brand recognition becomes even more important. ^^^this right here, and think RL is a good choice I'm not disagreeing necessarily and the stock decline at RL from peak looks enormous. One thing to be cautious of though is for men's RL had an amazing moat for in store retail. They were one of the only brands that had stores within a store at the major department stores. Even when the department stores were kind of crappy those sections were always hardwood and really nice. I recently ordered a replacement RL polo shirt and it came in a cheap plastic bag within another cheap macy's plastic mailer. Even though it was the same product I'd always bought it delivered a very cheap feel and I thought about returning it just based on my subconscious reaction. They don't seem like they've figured out how to deliver the same experience online. Wait hold on a second. Yes, Macy's cheapens their product with those while plastic shipping bags. I think this a direct reflection of Macy's and their shipping policies. Every time I have ordered Polo shirts from RL website I get the following box (see below). It will sound very cheesy but the first time I opened a box for RL's site it felt like they are putting forth the effort for a quality experience even if it's not at the store. On the other hand I am more concerned about the internal politics within the company. Already get the feeling the new CEO will have to work his ass off to get respect within the company. https://www.forbes.com/sites/pamdanziger/2017/05/22/can-patrice-louvet-cure-what-ails-ralph-lauren/#d10c75431915
  21. Not sure how old you are but the target market for Bucke is 12-24 with a few 30-40 year olds that want to look like they are hip. in the past, they have done things that was different then standard retail. Sometimes it was for the better and sometimes they swung and missed. To my knowledge, they are always asking customers in the store what they like and don't like to adjust their mix correctly for that particular store.
  22. I've started looking at the sector lately and have on a list some of the same companies others have. BKE, GES, and RL. A couple that hasn't been mentioned yet that I'm trying to figure out is JCP and the head scratcher ASNA I don't feel ASNA is a buy yet due to lowered guidance earlier this week. It looks like their debt is very manageable since the bulk of the debt due to the Ann Taylor purchase a couple of years ago isn't due until 2021 I believe. Cash flows seemed very reasonable to service the debt and payoff the debt coming due until then. Not sure now how cash flow will look like with the revision. Would not be surprised if some of the Ann Taylor purchas it written off. On the bright side they are working on their issues trying to make the move to omni channel for all store. Also, from asking around some of the customers are very loyal particularly with Lane. Maybe it's just my age group but most people I talk to go into the stores to try things on and make sure the sizes are right. Most of them will purchase in the store. Some will order online from the same store once they are comfortable with the sizing.
  23. Interesting read. https://stratechery.com/2016/the-curse-of-culture/
  24. Thanks for the heads up. Where do you get market prices for these sorts of things? I have a few comics and tons of basketball cards I would love to turn into capital :) eBay is the best place to get an idea of the going prices. If it is something desirable and in good shape I would professionally have it graded. The difference in 1 point can easily double the price (it's hard to get these grades). If you'll send me a list of what you have I can give you a better idea how I would approach it.
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