What are you buying today?

[Luke]

26 minutes ago, Paarslaars said:

Or IPCO

 

I am guessing there is an appeal to investing alongside Buffet.

Is it the Carbon Capture business? 

[Spekulatius]

30 minutes ago, Paarslaars said:

Or IPCO

 

I am guessing there is an appeal to investing alongside Buffet.

Everyone in the oil sector looks very expensive when compared to PBR/ PBR-A. I think I am just about to get another 38c in dividends.

Edited August 24 by Spekulatius

[LC]

I own IPCO, PBR-A, EC, OXY warrants, some Valaris warrants, Gear energy

 

I have no expertise in the industry, so it's a bit of a basket approach, but boiled down it's something like:

The Canadian stuff is for capital gains

The S. American stuff is for dividends

The warrants are for trading.

[Dave86ch]

15 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

Everyone in the oil sector looks very expensive when compared to PBR/ PBR-A. I think I am just about to get another 38c in dividends.

I was just checking with perplexity.

 

 

 

[Kizion]

43 minutes ago, Dave86ch said:

I was just checking with perplexity.

 

 

 

Depends if you prefer US, CA or BR assets. Latter one seems to be significantly discounted for their geographical risks. 
 

How does CNQ compare to OXY in terms of reserves? 

[Spekulatius]

3 hours ago, Kizion said:

Depends if you prefer US, CA or BR assets. Latter one seems to be significantly discounted for their geographical risks. 
 

How does CNQ compare to OXY in terms of reserves? 

It is not a geographical risk, it is a political risk. People remember when PBR was almost bankrupted by Dilma’s way of running it, which is why it is discounted that much. By the way, I think Canada also has some political risk the way they treat their energy companies.

[Dinar]

4 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

It is not a geographical risk, it is a political risk. People remember when PBR was almost bankrupted by Dilma’s way of running it, which is why it is discounted that much. By the way, I think Canada also has some political risk the way they treat their energy companies.

I agree with you, however if you look at Kamala Harris' platform, she calls for billions of tax increases on oil and gas firms on top of regular corporate tax increases.  

[Dalal.Holdings]

1 hour ago, Dinar said:

I agree with you, however if you look at Kamala Harris' platform, she calls for billions of tax increases on oil and gas firms on top of regular corporate tax increases.  

 

There's the legislative branch in the U.S. standing in the way of every Presidential candidate's most outlandish promises

[Munger_Disciple]

1 hour ago, Dinar said:

I agree with you, however if you look at Kamala Harris' platform, she calls for billions of tax increases on oil and gas firms on top of regular corporate tax increases.  

 

And 44% tax on realized and unrealized capital gains, not sure if it is even constitutional. 

Edited August 25 by Munger_Disciple

[DooDiligence]

I never could get comfortable with PBR after watching them work. I made a small bet on Eike Batista thinking an upstart OGX could put a dent in PBR. I got Tubarăo tanked for my trouble. PBR seems to have done a good job of cleaning up operations. Congrats to longs. Nothing like a good car wash.

[Dinar]

46 minutes ago, Munger_Disciple said:

 

And 44% tax on realized and unrealized capital gains, not sure if it is even constitutional. 

Once you factor in state and local income tax and inflation, it will be closer to 90%

[brobro777]

Bought some VRSN 

[Saluki]

Still adding a little GOOG each day and when I get close to my past high water mark where I was comfortable with the position sizing, I will start trimming when it goes above that.

 

Just got approved for options for options and I bought a few calls on ATEX, to dip my toes in.  I have a 1.5% equity position, and I don't want to put more cash into it, but it seems to overreact to good news, so I think this is a way to get some exposure and participate in the pipeline which keeps getting bigger, even though signed contracts are not happening as quickly as I'd like.  

 

Trimmed a little STNG and TAYD.  

[ANP301191]

Anglo American - picking up shares under 2250 whenever I can.

[Dave86ch]

Added to 9988 Alibaba

[Malmqky]

basket of Chinese e-commerce - JD, PDD, BABA, .05% position each.

 

I figure I'll add if these continue to fall, would be comfortable making each a 1% position.

[Luke]

I bought a natural resource company with limited reserves at 6x 2024 EV/Net income in China with the Ticker PDD. 

[Luke]

19 hours ago, Malmqky said:

basket of Chinese e-commerce - JD, PDD, BABA, .05% position each.

 

I figure I'll add if these continue to fall, would be comfortable making each a 1% position.

Nice! Those are really great mining businesses at single digit earnings that are paying dividends and buybacks, one should do moderately okay here I think. 

Edited August 28 by Luke

[Luke]

[n.r98]

Lottery posn in NEON... alr up >10%... wish i made it bigger hahahah but actually, v interesting patent case behind fwiw

[Luke]

I bought more PDD, i was happy at 99 USD, now we are at 98 USD. Will i have to buy again tomorrow at 79 USD? 

 

[Luke]

Is it a zero?

[Saluki]

Feels like a broken record, but I picked up more GOOGL and OXY.  

 

With pocket change I picked up a few shares of ENVX and CPNG.  

[Sweet]

2 hours ago, Saluki said:

Feels like a broken record, but I picked up more GOOGL and OXY.  

 

With pocket change I picked up a few shares of ENVX and CPNG.  

How big do you think Google can get in terms of market cap?  Looking at it myself for a good while, just not sure how much bigger this monster can get.

[Saluki]

13 minutes ago, Sweet said:

How big do you think Google can get in terms of market cap?  Looking at it myself for a good while, just not sure how much bigger this monster can get.

 

I think it's oversold, but I'm not sure of the market cap in a few years because of the uncertainty about the fears of a breakup.  IF the judge says that GOOG can no longer pay Apple to be the default browser on iPhones.  It's possible that most people would still use Google, and that $20bln a year that GOOG would save, at a 20x P/E is another $400Bln market cap.  However, if Apple wants to capture some of that, maybe they will come out with their own (crappier) search and make it the default on iPhones.  Then how much of that $20bln stays with GOOG, who knows? 

 

Google cloud is 3rd behind AWS and MSFT, but it's still growing at +20% a year.  How much is a fast growing sticky SaaS business worth in 5 years?  I don't know, but it's probably a lot. 

 

It wasn't until recently that I started to see a lot of ads in Waze.  That brings in ~$500m a year and the moat gets bigger every year as more people use it.  What's that worth in 5 years? 

 

The Other Bets segment currently brings about $400mm a year if i remember correctly.  There are a lot of other bets in there and one of them is Waymo.  People love fawning on Elon Musk, but the last time I looked at the two most important metrics, Waymo is way ahead.  Those are: total miles driven, and miles driven before human intervention needed. I don't know how much it's worth, but in 5 years I bet it will be a lot more. 

 

The prior big selloff was when ChatGPT came out and people thought it would kill Google search.  It hasn't.  And Google has a very impressive AI of it's own.  It's still early for AI, so I don't know what the final contribution will be, but among the most advanced in this space are Google and Meta, along with MSFT. 

 

And generative AI and Machine Learning work better with more data.  Google has the search by a mile and they also have YouTube for video and sound.  That's gotta be worth something to the AI moat. 

 

If the court doesn't split them up, but instead makes them make some data about search and advertising auctions available to it's competitors for a fee, maybe that hurts them, but maybe it brings in more revenue.  

 

Still in the early innings.  I thought about trimming when it got to be my largest position and didn't.  Now that it's come down, I think maybe I can overweight it, and if it grows, then keep trimming whenever it grows beyond a certain percent (15%? 20%?) that I am comfortable holding for a long time.