What are you buying today?

[throw123]

48 minutes ago, Castanza said:

Testing 5 year support at 44....next stop 35? 

who knows, but I would definitely be a buyer at 35

[kab60]

4 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

Well, I like the odds here, but maybe I am smoking something. I bought more on the Swedish exchange today, since it's down ~4%. Another interesting thing I have found is that the SEK seems to be correlated with the Russian Ruble RUB somewhat:

 

Makes sense, since they are all commies, right?

Nah, I agree. It's one of my best GARP ideas. If the development in the states gets to resemble Northern Europe, it's gonne be a huge winner.

 

My fear is Altria and BATS somehow has enough FDA clout to sabotage Zyn!, though I have no idea how they'd do that.

Edited February 21, 2022 by kab60

[Ulti]

1 hour ago, kab60 said:

Nah, I agree. It's one of my best GARP ideas. If the development in the states gets to resemble Northern Europe, it's gonne be a huge winner.

 

My fear is Altria and BATS somehow has enough FDA clout to sabotage Zyn!, though I have no idea how they'd do that.

https://tobacco.ucsf.edu/swedish-match-misrepresents-fda-authorization-its-snus-effort-get-exemption-california-flavor-ban
 

I think you have more to worry about from politicians, anti tobacco groups

and maybe the fda?

[kab60]

3 minutes ago, Ulti said:

https://tobacco.ucsf.edu/swedish-match-misrepresents-fda-authorization-its-snus-effort-get-exemption-california-flavor-ban
 

I think you have more to worry about from politicians, anti tobacco groups

and maybe the fda?

Maybe. I wrote Swedish Match regarding the PMTA process, as I'm not 100% on the risks. Will see what they say. They don't really mention it in their annual report risk section, so I might be seeing ghosts.

As for politicians, it's always a risk in this space. But if common sense prevails, they won't oppose nicotine pouches. The health benefits compared to tobacco are immense - you can't really compare the two types of products. While nicotine isn't healthy, it doesn't kill you unlike all the small particles and tar you inhale into your lungs when smoking.

 

This might be of interest:

 

[Spekulatius]

Biggest risk for SWMA / ZYN are punitive taxes on nicotine pouches. It's always a possibility, but i don't see why the FDA would do so, except bribery through lobbying of course.

 

Overall, my thesis is that nicotine as  a drug is here to stay and cigarettes will get replaced with healthier alternatives, its just a matter of how quickly.

Edited February 21, 2022 by Spekulatius

[Ulti]

https://www.sfweekly.com/culture/zyn-next-juul/

 

Nice layman overview

[kab60]

14 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

Biggest risk for SWMA / ZYN are punitive taxes on nicotine pouches. It's always a possibility, but i don't see why the FDA would do so, except bribery through lobbying of course.

 

Overall, my thesis is that nicotine as  a drug is here to stay and cigarettes will get replaced with healthier alternatives, its just a matter of how quickly.

Yeah, I think it's inevitable that nicotine pouches will eventually be taxed meaningfully. Not due to health concerns, but simply because continued declines in cigarette consumption will leave an increasing whole in public budgets. Hopefully, politicians are sensible enough and realize that nicotine pouches might be one of the greatest things to happen for public health. But one of the attractions for me in investing in MO (apart from being perhaps the greatest business ever) is that they seem to have a tremendous amount of regulatory clout. It's pretty sad for society and public health, but it's great for shareholders.

 

Despite increasing taxes, I think SWMA will do well. I've been smoking a cig once in a while when going out since I started 'drinking' and have almost completely switched to nicotine pouches. It's just a better product, not least as you aren't banned to standing outside, AND the health benefits are tremendous. I hope we do well, Spek!

 

 

[MattR]

2 hours ago, kab60 said:

Yeah, I think it's inevitable that nicotine pouches will eventually be taxed meaningfully. Not due to health concerns, but simply because continued declines in cigarette consumption will leave an increasing whole in public budgets. Hopefully, politicians are sensible enough and realize that nicotine pouches might be one of the greatest things to happen for public health. But one of the attractions for me in investing in MO (apart from being perhaps the greatest business ever) is that they seem to have a tremendous amount of regulatory clout. It's pretty sad for society and public health, but it's great for shareholders.

 

Despite increasing taxes, I think SWMA will do well. I've been smoking a cig once in a while when going out since I started 'drinking' and have almost completely switched to nicotine pouches. It's just a better product, not least as you aren't banned to standing outside, AND the health benefits are tremendous. I hope we do well, Spek!

 

 

I think that it will be difficult to do in practice. Cigarettes were only heavily taxed after decades of research on health problems. With nicotine pouches it will take another decade at least to have proper health statistics.

[Spekulatius]

16 minutes ago, MattR said:

I think that it will be difficult to do in practice. Cigarettes were only heavily taxed after decades of research on health problems. With nicotine pouches it will take another decade at least to have proper health statistics.

I don't think politicans need proper health statistics to tax something. I am bullish on SWMAY but I don't feel bullish about common sense in politics and taxation.

[kab60]

17 minutes ago, MattR said:

I think that it will be difficult to do in practice. Cigarettes were only heavily taxed after decades of research on health problems. With nicotine pouches it will take another decade at least to have proper health statistics.

To tax it? Not sure, politicians seem to do that easily. As for Health Studies, you have some pretty formidable health data in Sweden, and as I understand it (I was told by an Economist friend of mine at Novo Nordisk, so take it with a grain of salts) there are pretty much no negative health consequences from Snus/Nicotine Pouches when you look at cohorts of users through decades. We can agree that nicotine isn't beneficial, and being addicted is generally bad, but for a lot of people nicotine pouches substitutes cigarettes which are just terrible, obviously, for your health.

[aws]

Deploying some of the proceeds from APTS. Added some SWMAY, TCEHY, and BABA.

 

Edit: Wow, also some OZ. Someone must be getting liquidated on that stock today. It's basically just a pile of cash right now with most shares sold at 100, and it's down 15% today and trading around 80.

Edited February 22, 2022 by aws

[Red Lion]

FB and KKR. 

[KJP]

Nickel 28 Capital Corp.

Swedish Match

Hill International

Leatt Corp.

 

[TwoCitiesCapital]

Trimming Whitecap Resources and Altius Resources.

 

Buying Sberbank and Resolute Forest Products.

[aws]

Yikes, I was way too early on OZ. Down almost 30% now. I sure hope this is just a big liquidation and not some actual news I am missing.

[fareastwarriors]

More SWMAY

[Red Lion]

APO and more KKR. 

[JAK]

SWMA

[fareastwarriors]

55 minutes ago, aws said:

Yikes, I was way too early on OZ. Down almost 30% now. I sure hope this is just a big liquidation and not some actual news I am missing.

 

Just checked out their site briefly. 

Nothing to add but seems like an interesting company.

[aws]

17 minutes ago, fareastwarriors said:

 

Just checked out their site briefly. 

Nothing to add but seems like an interesting company.

Yeah, as far as I know it's the only publicly traded Opportunity Zone fund, which in and of itself as an interesting opportunity. You actually get a tax writeoff dollar for dollar when you invest so long as you have capital gains to offset. And it's retroactive for 180 days so you can buy today and avoid paying tax on a gain from September of last year. 

 

Separately from the company itself, the stock has moved in very inefficient ways over the past year. They have an ongoing offering where they will basically sell unlimited shares at $100 per share, and for quite a while it didn't fluctuate more than a few pennies from that price. Then last summer the stock (when it was still trading OTC as BELP) floated to up to $180 at the high during a period when the offering was suspended, and now it's going the other way and traded as low as $65 today. I'd think if nothing weird is going on, then it probably drifts back up to the $100 NAV range as more and more people either buy in for the discount alone or new money rolls in at the last minutes to save on 2021 capital gains. 

[fareastwarriors]

4 minutes ago, aws said:

Yeah, as far as I know it's the only publicly traded Opportunity Zone fund, which in and of itself as an interesting opportunity. You actually get a tax writeoff dollar for dollar when you invest so long as you have capital gains to offset. And it's retroactive for 180 days so you can buy today and avoid paying tax on a gain from September of last year. 

 

Separately from the company itself, the stock has moved in very inefficient ways over the past year. They have an ongoing offering where they will basically sell unlimited shares at $100 per share, and for quite a while it didn't fluctuate more than a few pennies from that price. Then last summer the stock (when it was still trading OTC as BELP) floated to up to $180 at the high during a period when the offering was suspended, and now it's going the other way and traded as low as $65 today. I'd think if nothing weird is going on, then it probably drifts back up to the $100 NAV range as more and more people either buy in for the discount alone or new money rolls in at the last minutes to save on 2021 capital gains. 

 

We need our real estate experts on this ASAP 

 

@thepupil @Gregmal @BG2008
@realassetsvalue

 

Sorry for any omissions! 

[Gregmal]

Have to look at it. Been extremely lazy last few months since I was going on vacation and figured the market was gonna struggle to start '22. Then my biggest position got bought out. So my fucks to give arent quite there and due diligence efforts have been lacking. That said, I did just grab a handful more PCYO. 

[aws]

There's not a whole lot of fundamentals to look at yet. They have done a couple of small projects when they were managing funds in the <$100mm range, but they are trying to raise closer to $1b which will mean future development will dwarf anything then have done so far.

 

They do have to follow OZ rules which basically mean they can only own property in certain census tracts. And they have to deal in buildings that either are brand new and have never been placed in service before, or ones where they spend as least as much renovating as the original building cost. So the pool of assets they can invest in is much smaller than most REITs, but you also get amazing tax benefits as an owner so you could choose a lower yielding asset and still come out way ahead. In addition to the write off on purchase, if you hold for ten years you don't pay any taxes when you sell the stock either. And that goes for both capital gains taxes as well as depreciation deductions they pass through to you on a k-1.

 

I'm not sure yet if I'm sold on sticking it out with them for ten years, but the tax benefits from buying were too good for me to ignore, so I already had a pretty good size position, and that was before thinking about a 25-35% discount to NAV like we have now.

 

[Gregmal]

My understanding is that with the OZ stuff(probably more so citing things Ive heard about non traded product) is that the fees are something to watch out for and also the development risks. In other words these are almost always in bad areas that collapse if the wheels fall off the economy. So you have tax efficiency but you also bear risk and carry less than stellar properties while being charged high fees. Is that valid here?

[lnofeisone]

VET. Like CVE, they are deleveraging (with capital return plans once debt targets are achieved) and their financials are getting better, as long as oil stays high. VET just upped its European gas production by 50% (upping their share of Corrib gas field). For the foreseeable future, they are printing $ on their European exposure.