What are you buying today?

[Spekulatius]

Adding a bit to $FISV here below $106.

[ERICOPOLY]

4 hours ago, Gregmal said:

Added a little bit to the crude oil futures call options and XLE calls. Credit to Kuppy again on the futures calls.....clearly the best way to play a big spike without the company specific risk. Another shoutout to the genius president and his fans for making it all happen. No better way to redistribute the wealth the high energy prices. $100 oil here we come!

 

$100.  Interesting, that will take us back to 2008 pricing again. 

[nwoodman]

NTDOY

[Pistachio_Lawyer]

Added BABA

[Spekulatius]

On 10/11/2021 at 1:55 PM, Spekulatius said:

Adding a bit to $FISV here below $106.

 Keep adding little lots of FISV.

FWIW, some of the Fintech are selling off quite a bit recently (FIS, PYPL and the Brazilian samba stocks PAGS and STNE)

[Red Lion]

57 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

 Keep adding little lots of FISV.

FWIW, some of the Fintech are selling off quite a bit recently (FIS, PYPL and the Brazilian samba stocks PAGS and STNE)

 

Imitation is the best form of flattery they say. I bought FISV and SFTBY over the past two days. 

[Gregmal]

AAL puts.

[SafetyinNumbers]

Added to ACD.TO Accord Financial

 

Its not a very liquid stock so the risk is if you buy it, it might go up. 
 

Reported $0.65 in H121, should be stronger in H222 and even stronger next year as they grow the balance sheet and pick up operating leverage. Management is targeting a 15% ROE vs 13.3% last quarter. Book value is $10.70 vs the stock price of $8.17. 
 

 

[ANP301191]

Added some FB in the mid 320s. Maybe Im wrong but I would love the US govt to break it up, Whatsapp and Instagram are probably amongst the most valuable properties in the world and are definitely undervalued being part of the FB "evil empire".

[Gregmal]

A few cases of Eagle Rare 10 year. Preparing for the impending bourbon crisis. 

[Broeb22]

Added DFH. 

 

Think there was some forced selling by BOMN to fund their SPAC deal. 

Edited October 18, 2021 by Broeb22

[lnofeisone]

Started to buy more serious UNG put positions. Trash security in an overextended natural gas market. I'm also using the cover of the economist as my "do the opposite" proxy. 

[Gregmal]

Been picking at SPCE Jan 2023 $10 puts

[Gregmal]

also grabbed another 300 CLPR March 7.5 calls

[BG2008]

1 hour ago, Gregmal said:

also grabbed another 300 CLPR March 7.5 calls

What price? 

[Gregmal]

8 minutes ago, BG2008 said:

What price? 

1.39-1.42

[BG2008]

2 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

1.39-1.42

Good price.  I've paid more than that on average.  

[Gregmal]

2 minutes ago, BG2008 said:

Good price.  I've paid more than that on average.  

Yea shares have been strange lately. Definitely feel like theres a seller putting a lid on them here. Was picking up 3000-5000 share lots the other week and whereas normally you'd clear out the current bid/ask, was getting a lot of iceberg asks. Speculatively, if someone wants to unload in size on a semi illiquid name, I'll step out and let them drive down the price and then hit the options as they come in. Its always fascinated me here how with CLPR you can watch 10,000-20,000 total shares trade slowly over an entire session, but for modest premiums you can pick up the same sized(or much larger) positions via the options in one quick swoop. Gonna be interesting as we get closer to March to see if anything comes about when its clear those shares have to be delivered. I've got most of the outstanding 5s and well, some dudes I know....own a lot of the 7.5s

[aws]

MARA puts, specifically Jan $40 puts. It's hard to short anything in the crypto space, but the more products that are available for the average investor the less it makes sense to own the ones that trade at massive premiums like MARA. 

 

Even with crypto at all time highs, the value of the crypto they hold is a little over $3 per share, and mining equipment installed that cost about $1 per share, and another $1 per share of equipment on the way over the next year or so. Mining revenue has gotten a big boost from the China bans, but how much can $1 per share of equipment really make? Even if it made 200% annual returns for a couple of years that's peanuts compared to the share price now, and in this type of business they are constantly coming out with new devices that are more efficient which drive down the value of the older ones. They got a pretty good deal buying a lot of miners before the big spike in bitcoin, but they will have to buy new ones at market price. They are half a commodity business, half a bitcoin investment fund, but both parts trade for 1000% of replacement cost and with many more investment opportunities that premium shouldn't last forever. But it's far from a sure thing since I'm sure you could make many similar arguments about meme stocks and GME put buyers haven't done very well either.

[Spekulatius]

21 minutes ago, aws said:

MARA puts, specifically Jan $40 puts. It's hard to short anything in the crypto space, but the more products that are available for the average investor the less it makes sense to own the ones that trade at massive premiums like MARA. 

 

Even with crypto at all time highs, the value of the crypto they hold is a little over $3 per share, and mining equipment installed that cost about $1 per share, and another $1 per share of equipment on the way over the next year or so. Mining revenue has gotten a big boost from the China bans, but how much can $1 per share of equipment really make? Even if it made 200% annual returns for a couple of years that's peanuts compared to the share price now, and in this type of business they are constantly coming out with new devices that are more efficient which drive down the value of the older ones. They got a pretty good deal buying a lot of miners before the big spike in bitcoin, but they will have to buy new ones at market price. They are half a commodity business, half a bitcoin investment fund, but both parts trade for 1000% of replacement cost and with many more investment opportunities that premium shouldn't last forever. But it's far from a sure thing since I'm sure you could make many similar arguments about meme stocks and GME put buyers haven't done very well either.

MARA does look extremely scummy. Headquarter in Las Vegas already says something as there are a lot of fraudulent  companies located in NV. The Chairman Okamoto also feels very promotional and has an unimpressive track record.

 

$40 January puts are north if $4 with the stock at $54 so fairly expensive.

[aws]

Oh he's outrageous. He used the bump in the price to award himself Elon Musk style tranches of free shares when the stock hit various market cap hurdles. 1.5 years ago the company had like $10 million of assets, and with the crypto hype near the end of last year they were able to issue about $500 million of stock to the public at inflated prices, and because they did that the chairman awarded himself about $100 million worth of free stock. My numbers may be off a bit, but that's the gist of what happened. Pure looting by him personally while cashing in on the hype.

 

Yeah, the puts are expensive. It's tough to find a date/strike that feels very good with such a high IV, but this is where I've settled.

[SafetyinNumbers]

On 10/14/2021 at 10:58 AM, SafetyinNumbers said:

Added to ACD.TO Accord Financial

 

Its not a very liquid stock so the risk is if you buy it, it might go up. 
 

Reported $0.65 in H121, should be stronger in H222 and even stronger next year as they grow the balance sheet and pick up operating leverage. Management is targeting a 15% ROE vs 13.3% last quarter. Book value is $10.70 vs the stock price of $8.17. 
 

 

Added some more to ACD.TO and to IOU.V.

 

IOU Financial is a fast growing fintech asset light small business lender.

 

Historically and unsurprisingly, loans growth is high and loans perform well coming out of a recession. I don’t think people are paying attention to the illiquid names because they are illiquid. Seems like a source of alpha to me.
 

 

[Red Lion]

Opened a new position in SAM yesterday at $520. Would be happy to keep adding to this initial position if the price continues into free fall. 

 

This is one of those companies I've watched for years, and never pulled the trigger because the valuation was so high. It's not cheap by any means, but regardless of the short term ups and downs, I think this one is well positioned in the craft brew segment (and seltzer too) with good margins, ROIC, long term tailwinds, and (hopefully) pricing power. 

 

I think a rollup type strategy could be very effective here with high multiple, strong balance sheet, and lots of privately held subscale craft brewers as potential targets.  

[Value_Added]

54 minutes ago, RedLion said:

Opened a new position in SAM yesterday at $520. Would be happy to keep adding to this initial position if the price continues into free fall. 

 

This is one of those companies I've watched for years, and never pulled the trigger because the valuation was so high. It's not cheap by any means, but regardless of the short term ups and downs, I think this one is well positioned in the craft brew segment (and seltzer too) with good margins, ROIC, long term tailwinds, and (hopefully) pricing power. 

 

I think a rollup type strategy could be very effective here with high multiple, strong balance sheet, and lots of privately held subscale craft brewers as potential targets.  

 

Did you take a look at writing any long term put options?  I’ve been eyeing them but still feel it’s a bit expensive at the adjusted cost basis if put the stock.  Thought I’d mention it because currently, an ATM put with an expiration in January 24 would yield approximately a 15% CAGR and if you got put the stock, would drop your basis to $372/share.  Point being, if you like it at $500/share, $372 offers a much larger margin of safety.

 

Edited October 21, 2021 by Value_Added

[Red Lion]

49 minutes ago, Value_Added said:

 

Did you take a look at writing any long term put options?  I’ve been eyeing them but still feel it’s a bit expensive at the adjusted cost basis if put the stock.  Thought I’d mention it because currently, an ATM put with an expiration in January 24 would yield approximately a 15% CAGR and if you got put the stock, would drop your basis to $372/share.  Point being, if you like it at $500/share, $372 offers a much larger margin of safety.

 

 

That's an excellent recommendation, thank you so much. I will look into this option, although at >$500 the position sizing is a bit high for my portfolio even on one contract.