elliott Posted November 24, 2020 Share Posted November 24, 2020 This year has been nuts and I should probably sell something instead of buying more, but I couldn't resist getting some more Lion Rock Group (HK) which like a lot of the HK market missed that stonks only go up It certainly looks like market inefficiency there. I would be tempted to make it a very large portion of the portfolio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab60 Posted November 24, 2020 Share Posted November 24, 2020 This year has been nuts and I should probably sell something instead of buying more, but I couldn't resist getting some more Lion Rock Group (HK) which like a lot of the HK market missed that stonks only go up It certainly looks like market inefficiency there. I would be tempted to make it a very large portion of the portfolio. Took it to 8 pct which is a medium sized for me. Think it'll be well worth the wait. Do you follow it, what do you think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted November 25, 2020 Share Posted November 25, 2020 Bought some March puts on BYND, PTON Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm25 Posted November 25, 2020 Share Posted November 25, 2020 What price levels for PTON? I'm looking at buying some puts as market hedges on some of these tech names. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted November 25, 2020 Share Posted November 25, 2020 I'm looking at and been buying stuff typically 20-30% OTM. I dont know if I'd expect them to necessarily get there, but if the current trend and unwind continues I think these will be effected more than most. The market in general is pretty euphoric right now. Kill two birds with one stone by hedging through some of the high beta names. A simple 10-20% drop in the next month or so on some of these should payout reasonable well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cardboard Posted November 25, 2020 Share Posted November 25, 2020 Bought some T-ATP in recent days. These guys are extremely well managed with managers who also put their money where their mouth is. Vastly undervalued when you consider hydro assets and biomass which are renewables. Ready to take-off IMO. Cardboard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted November 25, 2020 Share Posted November 25, 2020 Ended up adding a few FSR.ws at 5.10 Shares at $20 but warrants priced as if stock is at $16.6 w/ no time value. When shares were recently at $10 warrants were at $2. Seems like a reasonable margin of safety is built in via the disconnect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BG2008 Posted November 25, 2020 Share Posted November 25, 2020 Bought some March puts on BYND, PTON Any specific reason on timing price etc? I generally agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted November 25, 2020 Share Posted November 25, 2020 Bought some March puts on BYND, PTON Any specific reason on timing price etc? I generally agree. For one, the market is kinda scaring me a little. Lots of euphoria. I think the tech/WFH stuff burst with the vaccine and will at best bleed out as the recovery play stuff becomes more en vogue, or at worst deflate into a more rational but still expensive valuation. But just off the top of my head, I won't even mention RE cuz thats just what we do and it was stupid cheap anyway, but I have/had a good half dozen positions(stuff like BTC, FSR, PLTR, SBE, JMIA) that have at least doubled in just the last few weeks. As much as I'd like to think of myself as that damn good, its only honest to say that this is not healthy or normal, especially when most of these things already seemed irrationally priced(with the exception maybe of PLTR) to begin with and largely moved on absolutely NO NEWS. So I ve been selling down a lot of the spec stuff and looking for some options should this mania subside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted November 25, 2020 Share Posted November 25, 2020 Bought a bit of MITK the last few days. RKABANG brought it up and it looks like a decent growth/ value intersection stock to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benbuffett Posted November 25, 2020 Share Posted November 25, 2020 Nibbling at some Merck (MRK) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted November 25, 2020 Share Posted November 25, 2020 Sold the FSR warrants I bought today at the close. Money is growing on trees lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bathtime Posted November 25, 2020 Share Posted November 25, 2020 Bought NKLA puts. Agreed, has some parallels to ‘99. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted November 25, 2020 Share Posted November 25, 2020 Bought NKLA puts. Agreed, has some parallels to ‘99. Curious what date/strike? Had some Dec 11 $25s in my cross hairs today but held off as $2 for 2 weeks seemed a tad steep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bathtime Posted November 26, 2020 Share Posted November 26, 2020 Bought NKLA puts. Agreed, has some parallels to ‘99. Curious what date/strike? Had some Dec 11 $25s in my cross hairs today but held off as $2 for 2 weeks seemed a tad steep. I did the Jan 15 30-strike puts. I’m not an expert with options. I read today that 160m shares come out of lockup on Dec. 1, so I put on a small trade. Yes, premium so steep it’s hard to put on a bigger position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bathtime Posted November 27, 2020 Share Posted November 27, 2020 PYCO, thanks Gregmal. GBTC, as a hedge against not having GBTC. Premium dropped as low as 7-8% this morning. TSLA Jan 2022 puts, as a hedge against my disappointment if TSLA collapses and I don’t participate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted November 27, 2020 Share Posted November 27, 2020 No problem lol. PCYO and several other smaller semi liquid names Ive noticed have unusual selling activity. Ive put some sucker bids in. SWKH especially as that one can get fat fingered pretty easily and I'd love to make a quick 10-20% just playing market maker on a holiday shortened trading day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james22 Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 Just made MKL a 5% position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Simba Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 I've seen quite a bit of crazy price action in the $500M to $5,000M type market cap companies related to "insert 2020 hype trend here" Incredible. Reminds me of the Crypto / Cannabis fever in 2017, but a lot more widespread to a LOT more sectors and to more "Quality" companies. There's a stat out there something about growth outperforming value YTD, but even more pronounced is the type of companies outperforming and not what you'd expect coming out of a recession... 2017 was crazy in terms of mania for crypto / MJ companies I have a folder with images of the stock charts running up in 2017 of all these "hype PR companies", now all -90% from 2017 peak. Guess I'll have to sit out the mania 8) this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rkbabang Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 2017 was crazy in terms of mania for crypto / MJ companies I have a folder with images of the stock charts running up in 2017 of all these "hype PR companies", now all -90% from 2017 peak. Bitcoin is just under its 2017 all time high again right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Simba Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 2017 was crazy in terms of mania for crypto / MJ companies I have a folder with images of the stock charts running up in 2017 of all these "hype PR companies", now all -90% from 2017 peak. Bitcoin is just under its 2017 all time high again right now. Was referring more to the derivative of bitcoin (e.g. stocks) who did a "corporate strategy shift" to blockchain.. Many of these companies went up 2-4x in a matter of weeks upon whatever PR Hive Blockchain Technologies LTD is a perfect example. It soared 220% in debut of trading. https://www.cantechletter.com/2017/09/hive-blockchain-soars-220-trading-debut/ Here are some other "blockchain" names to name a few, there are many like this: Victory Square Technologies Liberty Leaf Holdings Datametrx AI Atlas Cloud Enterprises I'd be happy to name the MJ companies, but you can take a look at Aurora Cannabis Inc stock price to name 1./ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rkbabang Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 2017 was crazy in terms of mania for crypto / MJ companies I have a folder with images of the stock charts running up in 2017 of all these "hype PR companies", now all -90% from 2017 peak. Bitcoin is just under its 2017 all time high again right now. Was referring more to the derivative of bitcoin (e.g. stocks) who did a "corporate strategy shift" to blockchain.. Many of these companies went up 2-4x in a matter of weeks upon whatever PR Hive Blockchain Technologies LTD is a perfect example. It soared 220% in debut of trading. https://www.cantechletter.com/2017/09/hive-blockchain-soars-220-trading-debut/ Here are some other "blockchain" names to name a few, there are many like this: Victory Square Technologies Liberty Leaf Holdings Datametrx AI Atlas Cloud Enterprises I'd be happy to name the MJ companies, but you can take a look at Aurora Cannabis Inc stock price to name 1./ No need, you are correct, I remember any company that mentioned "blockchain" shooting up. And the MJ companies as well. There of course will be real crypto and MJ stock investments (I own AYR Strategies), but that year was crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
perulv Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 SIMO - Greenblatt/ Magic formula type semiconductor stock. Looks interesting with revenue growth, stable margins, and high ROIC. This thing deserves a thread of its own, IMO. Maybe this is similar to MU, cyclical, long-term trend is upwards, buy when others are looking the other way? SIMO’s memory controller business is a much better business than MU, imo, because there is less pricing fluctuation and it is fabless. Gross margins are fairly stable around 50%, so it’s not as good as a CPU or analog business, but much better than totally commoditized segments like memory. I can start a thread and write a few lines, but my thesis isn’t deep: it’s just an OK to good and somewhat lumpy business that is cheep. Every time I look at SIMO, I think "why is't this priced higher?". I first bought some shares of it in 2017, at $42. My "analysis" back then was (I wrote it down) : "Looks like a solid company. Makes money, has no debt, is in a market that has a future. Is the market leader?". Today I still agree with my thesis, and now it is priced at $39 ??? In a crazy market where "everything" is priced to perfection, I just don't get why this has been more or less flat for five years. My main reason for not buying some more SIMO is that often when I think Mr. Market is wrong, it turns out there is some valid reason for the price being what it is... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Longnose Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 SIMO - Greenblatt/ Magic formula type semiconductor stock. Looks interesting with revenue growth, stable margins, and high ROIC. This thing deserves a thread of its own, IMO. Maybe this is similar to MU, cyclical, long-term trend is upwards, buy when others are looking the other way? SIMO’s memory controller business is a much better business than MU, imo, because there is less pricing fluctuation and it is fabless. Gross margins are fairly stable around 50%, so it’s not as good as a CPU or analog business, but much better than totally commoditized segments like memory. I can start a thread and write a few lines, but my thesis isn’t deep: it’s just an OK to good and somewhat lumpy business that is cheep. Every time I look at SIMO, I think "why is't this priced higher?". I first bought some shares of it in 2017, at $42. My "analysis" back then was (I wrote it down) : "Looks like a solid company. Makes money, has no debt, is in a market that has a future. Is the market leader?". Today I still agree with my thesis, and now it is priced at $39 ??? In a crazy market where "everything" is priced to perfection, I just don't get why this has been more or less flat for five years. My main reason for not buying some more SIMO is that often when I think Mr. Market is wrong, it turns out there is some valid reason for the price being what it is... Not sure my comments will be that constructive but like you I look at SIMO periodically. Most times my thesis is about the same as yours. I've come to the conclusion that SIMO's just not growing very fast. Revenue has been near flat from 2017 till now. Margins have slimmed up a bit. I would bet they are looking for the next leap in growth. I hold MU as well. Sometime I wonder if SIMO is, in Pabrai's terms a "hidden compounder" If you purchased MU in the bottom of a cycle and held for more than 10 years MU compounds north of 20% per year through its cyclicality. I wonder if SIMO being a supplier of the semi conductor industry has similar traits over very long periods of time. My big thought would be what is the moat here? can it be sustained for 10 years? I dont know all the ins and outs of creating semiconductor controllers . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 Also swapped some RBACU into CFIIU. Big moves! CFIIU to merge with View, shares up 15%. Spac-mania continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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