twacowfca Posted February 4, 2014 Posted February 4, 2014 Bought OTM puts on IWM early today to add to the pile of SPY puts we own. Nice pop with the IWM puts up about 65% at the close. Have been rolling some of the ITM SPY puts into longer duration OTM puts. It's definitely nice to have an increasing store of potential dry powder in this decline. It remains to be seen if, in the immortal words of George W. Bush, "This sucker's going down." :)
snowball82 Posted February 4, 2014 Posted February 4, 2014 Smart employee benefits (seb.v), Biosyent (Rx.v) & XPEL (dap-u) Great microcap
Valuebo Posted February 4, 2014 Posted February 4, 2014 Bought OTM puts on IWM early today to add to the pile of SPY puts we own. Nice pop with the IWM puts up about 65% at the close. Have been rolling some of the ITM SPY puts into longer duration OTM puts. It's definitely nice to have an increasing store of potential dry powder in this decline. It remains to be seen if, in the immortal words of George W. Bush, "This sucker's going down." :) +1. Let the discussion continue on whether it makes sense to hedge or not but it sure feels nice to have no impact on your portfolio when the markets go down 2%+, especially when you are at that time trekking in northern thailand's jungle! :d
alertmeipp Posted February 4, 2014 Posted February 4, 2014 Bought OTM puts on IWM early today to add to the pile of SPY puts we own. Nice pop with the IWM puts up about 65% at the close. Have been rolling some of the ITM SPY puts into longer duration OTM puts. It's definitely nice to have an increasing store of potential dry powder in this decline. It remains to be seen if, in the immortal words of George W. Bush, "This sucker's going down." :) +1. Let the discussion continue on whether it makes sense to hedge or not but it sure feels nice to have no impact on your portfolio when the markets go down 2%+, especially when you are at that time trekking in northern thailand's jungle! :d It sure feels good when you timed it right... the thing is how often you timed it right. If one has the ability on timing (some do), there is much better way to make money than doing "hedges"
jm25 Posted February 4, 2014 Posted February 4, 2014 Smart employee benefits (seb.v), Biosyent (Rx.v) & XPEL (dap-u) Great microcap What are your views on Biosyent - specifically their product portfolio? Good growth as a mini-Paladin Labs. Strong growth/margins, low capex, etc. I'd like to hear your views.
frommi Posted February 4, 2014 Posted February 4, 2014 It sure feels good when you timed it right... the thing is how often you timed it right. If one has the ability on timing (some do), there is much better way to make money than doing "hedges" The problem is being right twice. The next bounce up can easily kill the profits and because of the late buys the chance is good that the hedge result is a loss. I can`t foresee the future but the VIX has spiked to a 1 year high yesterday.
frommi Posted February 4, 2014 Posted February 4, 2014 Bought some more BP today, oil&gas companies are now at the target of 25% of my portfolio. Next funds go to something else.
LowIQinvestor Posted February 4, 2014 Author Posted February 4, 2014 Bought more YPF yesterday @ 21 7/8. LL And I thought I was the only one in the world getting involved in Argentina. Best of luck! (I'm long TEO- Telecom Argentina) Think it could be a double by 2016
longlake95 Posted February 4, 2014 Posted February 4, 2014 Ive been in YPF for a year, its been a wild ride, but it's dirt cheap on a NAV basis. LL
jschembs Posted February 4, 2014 Posted February 4, 2014 Ive been in YPF for a year, its been a wild ride, but it's dirt cheap on a NAV basis. LL Scared me, I thought you were buying Lumber Liquidators.
Guest wellmont Posted February 4, 2014 Posted February 4, 2014 Ive been in YPF for a year, its been a wild ride, but it's dirt cheap on a NAV basis. LL Scared me, I thought you were buying Lumber Liquidators. I would be scared to be short. one of the smartest stock pickers in the world just bought a big position.
Ross812 Posted February 4, 2014 Posted February 4, 2014 Rolled my BAC Jan '15 10-20 call spreads to Jan '16 12-25 call spreads
jschembs Posted February 4, 2014 Posted February 4, 2014 Ive been in YPF for a year, its been a wild ride, but it's dirt cheap on a NAV basis. LL Scared me, I thought you were buying Lumber Liquidators. I would be scared to be short. one of the smartest stock pickers in the world just bought a big position. I saw that, and everyone's favorite whipping boy Tilson has made a very loud short case. I don't have a position, but if I had to initiate one here it'd be short. Gross margins at all time highs, bulk of the remodeling done by the Blackstone's of the world to build the world's largest rental pool, and the business still only generates $40 MM in FCF (less than 2% FCF yield). I just don't see how you get significantly much more upside in the stock.
Guest valueInv Posted February 4, 2014 Posted February 4, 2014 Ive been in YPF for a year, its been a wild ride, but it's dirt cheap on a NAV basis. LL Scared me, I thought you were buying Lumber Liquidators. I would be scared to be short. one of the smartest stock pickers in the world just bought a big position. I saw that, and everyone's favorite whipping boy Tilson has made a very loud short case. I don't have a position, but if I had to initiate one here it'd be short. Gross margins at all time highs, bulk of the remodeling done by the Blackstone's of the world to build the world's largest rental pool, and the business still only generates $40 MM in FCF (less than 2% FCF yield). I just don't see how you get significantly much more upside in the stock. Who bought YPF?
no_free_lunch Posted February 5, 2014 Posted February 5, 2014 prevalou, Thanks for the feedback! I knew ADT was a comp but I don't follow them, my bad I guess. You are right on the FCF as well, found it in the citigroup conference presentation. It still seems fairly cheap though given their historical growth. I know it is with acquisitions but historically the acquisitions have translated well on a FCF / share metric. The biggest issue I see is a fairly shallow moat and Malone selling a big chunk of shares. I will probably watch them for awhile longer.
alertmeipp Posted February 5, 2014 Posted February 5, 2014 Well, and I got more FTP.TO today. Not without risk but the risk / reward is getting very asymmetric. Chad laid out the non-DP business really well in the recent presentation, and the cost cutting and loonie will help the DP business quite a bit going forward.
Kiltacular Posted February 5, 2014 Posted February 5, 2014 Bought OTM puts on IWM early today to add to the pile of SPY puts we own. Nice pop with the IWM puts up about 65% at the close. Have been rolling some of the ITM SPY puts into longer duration OTM puts. It's definitely nice to have an increasing store of potential dry powder in this decline. It remains to be seen if, in the immortal words of George W. Bush, "This sucker's going down." :) +1. Let the discussion continue on whether it makes sense to hedge or not but it sure feels nice to have no impact on your portfolio when the markets go down 2%+, especially when you are at that time trekking in northern thailand's jungle! :d It sure feels good when you timed it right... the thing is how often you timed it right. If one has the ability on timing (some do), there is much better way to make money than doing "hedges" I give him credit. He timed it perfectly and he had a reason...WSBASE...he called it on the way up too.
alertmeipp Posted February 5, 2014 Posted February 5, 2014 Of coz, he is one of the few who can time it right. I am one of the many who can't.
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