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Posted

Just added to my FB position.

 

 

 

Been busy. Last week or so:

 

Wrote BRK.B puts (195 and 197.5 strikes) channeling my inner boilermaker.

 

LIF.TO

 

WEQ.DB

 

SHLD debt

 

Finally got into the SHLD bonds eh? Which ones did you buy?

Posted

 

Finally got into the SHLD bonds eh? Which ones did you buy?

 

6.625 '18s. I like the lien vs SRAC (and the way lower price). While I'm pretty sure they're undersecured at present, I think there's a chance ESL makes a credit bid with its debt higher up the capital stack for some of the things they want. If what they want is actual operating stores and they're willing to pay something around current assets for them that is very helpful, imo. I think the unsecured holdco debt has a very good chance of being a zero. I suspect the SRAC/18's will end up the fulcrum security, and I think there might be value hiding in the real estate, likely even in the RE that has been pledged for debt.

 

I realize that this sounds exactly like the thesis that equity holders had for years, so I've kept this a pretty small position. The difference (imho) is that now there is a hard catalyst - these assets are getting dealt with in the court process.

Posted

And sold some 140$ nov18 puts on FB for 5.6$, the premium is really fat. Looks like the market expects a pretty big move after earnings.

 

*EDIT* I also bought a TSLA bear call spread 300/400 MAR2019 for 47$ credit because i just love the drama.

Posted

Frommi,

 

I am interested in why you were short the DAX.  It seems quite cheap to me, from a simple statistical perspective.

 

That was my seasonality trade. I buy these puts every year on the first day of May and sell at the end of October or if the DAX goes down by 20%. Over the past 100 years this has hedged a portfolio without extra cost. Every 4-5 years the puts are 5-6 baggers. While this looks like an even trade it boosts portfolio performance by 3-4% on average and reduces drawdowns from -50% to -20%. That was also the a good way to survive the bear market of 1929->1932. I am a pretty fearfull guy and need this stuff to stay fully invested. I am sure i will look stupid for selling them one day too early on monday. :)

Posted

@Frommi DAX as in Deutscher Aktienindex?  ::)

 

So weird that would have the effect you describe. Are you sure that's not just coincidence? I mean 100 years could be to short a timeframe?

Posted

 

But why sell the German index specifically?

 

This is my personal anti-home bias. According to https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=76248 Italy would work best, but i don`t think there is an active option market for that index. But when you look at the DAX holdings there are a lot of awful, overleveraged and cyclical businesses in it. The best is that no professional investor will ever use this effect, most investors i know laugh about it or dismiss it as a statistical fluke. (Should this change, i will probably reduce my position size)

Posted

 

But why sell the German index specifically?

 

This is my personal anti-home bias. According to https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=76248 Italy would work best, but i don`t think there is an active option market for that index. But when you look at the DAX holdings there are a lot of awful, overleveraged and cyclical businesses in it. The best is that no professional investor will ever use this effect, most investors i know laugh about it or dismiss it as a statistical fluke. (Should this change, i will probably reduce my position size)

 

The DAX has been traditionally much more volatile than the US stock market. I think some future traders like trading the German Dax futures because of the high volatility, the time difference and the relatively high liquidity. The old saying still goes that when wall streets gets a cold, Frankfurt gets a pneumonia.

Posted

Added to FB , TCEHY

 

sold out of UBNT

 

I just found something interesting about tencent. TCEHY owns 48% of Epic games ( Now valued at 15bn) , which launched Fortnite.

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