TwoCitiesCapital Posted May 30, 2018 Posted May 30, 2018 Sold a bit of Fairfax to fund my renewed position in Santander for European banking exposure. Have been wrong about SAN for years, but it has been an extraordinary trading vehicle for me. After the market action over the last 2-3 months, seemed like it was a good time to dip back into it - particularly since Fairfax ISN'T going to be repurchasing hand over fist like I thought they might when I bought my last batch.
rb Posted May 30, 2018 Posted May 30, 2018 It’s still selling for more than 1.2x BV and per Market Analysts like Greg Warren of Morningstar, “Many think” that BRK stock got ahead of itself in 2017. Well 1.2x is not where BRK should be. That's the point where it's such a bargain that Buffett will take out his shareholders. I don't think that the stock got "ahead of itself" in 2017. It probably got somewhere in the area of fairly valued. I don't see that as getting ahead of itself since the S&P and most of its components are beyond fair value. But it's a free country people can talk smack all they want.
Spekulatius Posted May 30, 2018 Posted May 30, 2018 Berkshire and Eurobank today. Liberty Global last week. Love BRK at $470 Billion. 10% of that is Apple alone I agree. Awesome price offered [around 190, or a bit below] for this company by the market on an eventful day. Intrinsic value in the area of 250, or above. It’s still selling for more than 1.2x BV and per Market Analysts like Greg Warren of Morningstar, “Many think” that BRK stock got ahead of itself in 2017. FWIW, Morningstar has BRK.B at $220 fair value and with a 4 star rating right now. Seems about correct.
Valuebo Posted May 30, 2018 Posted May 30, 2018 Don't forget that BRK's BV drops strongly when the stock market plummets. So if stocks are overvalued, BRK's BV is likely overstated. In other words, you get a leveraged effect when stock markets and BRK's BV is low.
boilermaker75 Posted May 30, 2018 Posted May 30, 2018 Berkshire and Eurobank today. Liberty Global last week. Love BRK at $470 Billion. 10% of that is Apple alone GFP, Nice, I would have joined you but if I get assigned to all my naked puts (highly unlikely) I'll be on more margin than I would want in this market. However, I could not completely resist so I wrote one $187.5-strike, Friday expiration put for $95! ;) Geaux Saints, Mike PS Did you see where Drew Brees bought John Wooden's 1930s Purdue jersey?
Mephistopheles Posted May 30, 2018 Posted May 30, 2018 Don't forget that BRK's BV drops strongly when the stock market plummets. So if stocks are overvalued, BRK's BV is likely overstated. In other words, you get a leveraged effect when stock markets and BRK's BV is low. Good point. On the other hand, a drop in the stock market and BV means increased opportunities to put that $100 billion to use, thus increasing overall IV.
gfp Posted May 30, 2018 Posted May 30, 2018 Hey Mike, I hadn't seen that Drew bought the jersey to loan to the school for display. What a guy. Saints have been fun again - Alvin Kamara is a blast to watch (and a nice guy you can bump into around town) and Drew still has a few great years left if he gets the help he needs. My buddy made his draperies, ha! I wouldn't want a bunch of margin after a super long bull run either, but I suppose if BRK gets down to 170 or thereabouts I won't be able to resist doing the call option trade I've had good results with at that valuation several times in the past. Long LEAPS calls and probably some shorter dated calls as well. (I know, I know, buying options on the long side must feel so wrong to you! I'll make sure they are fairly deep in the money with low premiums) Contrary to the post above, I don't foresee Berkshire's book value "dropping strongly" in anything but an all out rout. And I think a market panic ultimately makes BRK more valuable and solves many of the few "problems" BRK has putting capital to work. Retained earnings will largely offset most down years in the market... Berkshire and Eurobank today. Liberty Global last week. Love BRK at $470 Billion. 10% of that is Apple alone GFP, Nice, I would have joined you but if I get assigned to all my naked puts (highly unlikely) I'll be on more margin than I would want in this market. However, I could not completely resist so I wrote one $187.5-strike, Friday expiration put for $95! ;) Geaux Saints, Mike PS Did you see where Drew Brees bought John Wooden's 1930s Purdue jersey?
Valuebo Posted May 30, 2018 Posted May 30, 2018 You are both correct, over the long run BRK BV goes up when markets do poorly for a while. :) Just wanted to state BV is not something set in stone. On the other hand, BV has become less and less relevant for BRK as operating businesses are a bigger piece of the pie than before.
Dynamic Posted May 30, 2018 Posted May 30, 2018 I've sold my entire Apple (AAPL) position today at around $188.42 USD (£140.73 GBP) leaving me about 28.4% cash (previously 0.13%), 68.4% BRK.B, 2.2% my spouse's ShareSave employee option scheme, and a tiny few dribs and drabs in HPE, HPQ etc. This is not a bearish move on AAPL, although I may have estimated that I was selling near a short-term high, hoping not to lose too much in the many days it may take to shift the proceeds to their new home and possibly reinvest at least some of it into AAPL. I wanted to sell a small proportion of my BRK.B holding to add to the AAPL proceeds I want to shift to its new home, hopefully repurchasing most or all of that BRK.B in a few days within this new account. I decided I'd hold out until BRK.B was a little higher before doing so, as it seems particularly cheap right now. So I figured I'd take a bit of a short-term punt and put the AAPL proceeds into BRK.B while it was so cheap and maybe gain a couple of percent with luck without too much downside risk and no tax consequences, before I aim to make the sale and transfer the proceeds to their new home. Uncharacteristically, just this once, I'm acting like a day-trader! I won't make a habit of it!
Valuebo Posted June 1, 2018 Posted June 1, 2018 Bought more GCM yesterday at C$3.05, today GXE at C$1.11 Sold some CRC at $37.5 I bought back at $31.5 last week. ???
EricSchleien Posted June 1, 2018 Posted June 1, 2018 Tried to increase my position in CNGA but no sellers! Would anybody like to sell me shares? Increased my position in LAACO, Ltd; Trupanion; and Brookfield Asset Management
boilermaker75 Posted June 5, 2018 Posted June 5, 2018 On Friday I wrote USB 50-strike July 20th expiration puts for $1 per share, USB 50-strike June 29 expiration puts for $0.65 per share, and BK 55-strike June 8 expiration puts for $0.43 per share. Today, in some non-margin accounts because I had to wait for options to expire last Friday, I wrote some USB 50-strike June 15 expiration puts for $0.55 per share, USB 50-strike June 29 expiration puts for $0.58 per share, WFC 54-strike June 29 expiration puts for $0.67 per share, and BK 55-strike June 15 expiration puts for $0.55 per share.
SafetyinNumbers Posted June 5, 2018 Posted June 5, 2018 I bought some EFR.DB-TSX yesterday. It’s a pretty interesting piece of paper to have access to a potential Uranium bull market while getting paid to wait. Maturity is Dec 2020, strike is C$4.15. Implied vol of the outstanding warrants is over 60% while the debs trade at par. The debt issue is also a small part of the capital structure and I don’t think they will have a problem raising money but of course I think the debs could be a multibagger.
Sharad Posted June 5, 2018 Posted June 5, 2018 I have been accumulating a position in L Brands (NYSE: LB) over the last 2+ weeks...
wisowis Posted June 6, 2018 Posted June 6, 2018 I bought some EFR.DB-TSX yesterday. It’s a pretty interesting piece of paper to have access to a potential Uranium bull market while getting paid to wait. Maturity is Dec 2020, strike is C$4.15. Implied vol of the outstanding warrants is over 60% while the debs trade at par. The debt issue is also a small part of the capital structure and I don’t think they will have a problem raising money but of course I think the debs could be a multibagger. So from what I can tell, the interest rate on the debs varies between 8.5-13.5%, depending on the (weekly) spot market price of uranium oxide. Management doesn't expect the price to exceed 54.99 by 2020, the price above which the interest rate increases (and price is currently at 22.75$, from Google). Any reason to be optimistic about a bull market in uranium?
SafetyinNumbers Posted June 6, 2018 Posted June 6, 2018 I bought some EFR.DB-TSX yesterday. It’s a pretty interesting piece of paper to have access to a potential Uranium bull market while getting paid to wait. Maturity is Dec 2020, strike is C$4.15. Implied vol of the outstanding warrants is over 60% while the debs trade at par. The debt issue is also a small part of the capital structure and I don’t think they will have a problem raising money but of course I think the debs could be a multibagger. So from what I can tell, the interest rate on the debs varies between 8.5-13.5%, depending on the (weekly) spot market price of uranium oxide. Management doesn't expect the price to exceed 54.99 by 2020, the price above which the interest rate increases (and price is currently at 22.75$, from Google). Any reason to be optimistic about a bull market in uranium? Yes, I think so. The current Uranium spot price is too low for anyone to make money. Most producers locked into long term contract pricing much higher than spot which are expiring over the next few years. In response, Cameco and other large producers have decided to cut production and use existing inventory and buy in the spot market to fulfill production in order to preserve their resource for higher prices. Utilities will have to negotiate contract pricing soon and it will likely come in well above current prices. It’s a classical deep cyclical play that is complicated by an opaque market, two tiered pricing and extremely long lead times. I bought more yesterday with the stock surging higher and a holder of the debentures being forced to sell for what I can only assume are liquidity reasons.
benchmark Posted June 6, 2018 Posted June 6, 2018 On Friday I wrote USB 50-strike July 20th expiration puts for $1 per share, USB 50-strike June 29 expiration puts for $0.65 per share, and BK 55-strike June 8 expiration puts for $0.43 per share. Today, in some non-margin accounts because I had to wait for options to expire last Friday, I wrote some USB 50-strike June 15 expiration puts for $0.55 per share, USB 50-strike June 29 expiration puts for $0.58 per share, WFC 54-strike June 29 expiration puts for $0.67 per share, and BK 55-strike June 15 expiration puts for $0.55 per share. 'write puts' == selling puts? and how do you decide which put to write? I sometimes sell puts as well, but only for one week or less time, maybe the profit/cost-of-selling isn't great?
boilermaker75 Posted June 6, 2018 Posted June 6, 2018 On Friday I wrote USB 50-strike July 20th expiration puts for $1 per share, USB 50-strike June 29 expiration puts for $0.65 per share, and BK 55-strike June 8 expiration puts for $0.43 per share. Today, in some non-margin accounts because I had to wait for options to expire last Friday, I wrote some USB 50-strike June 15 expiration puts for $0.55 per share, USB 50-strike June 29 expiration puts for $0.58 per share, WFC 54-strike June 29 expiration puts for $0.67 per share, and BK 55-strike June 15 expiration puts for $0.55 per share. 'write puts' == selling puts? and how do you decide which put to write? I sometimes sell puts as well, but only for one week or less time, maybe the profit/cost-of-selling isn't great? Yes, writing puts is the terminology for selling puts, for opening (writing) a put contract. Most of the puts I write are nearer to expiration like you do, from a few days to about two weeks. There is more time value to obtain the closer to expiration. My strike price is the price at which I would not mind owning the stock, because I might! So it is also the way I enter my LTBH positions. When I go further out in time it is because the price I want to own the stock is further from where it is currently trading so I need more time value to make the cost of trading immaterial.
boilermaker75 Posted June 8, 2018 Posted June 8, 2018 Wrote 5 June 15 expiration 195 strike BRKB puts for $1.20 per share
gjangal Posted June 8, 2018 Posted June 8, 2018 SNAP - small asymmetric bet. They have 6 quarters to improve engagement or get bought out or go bust. I think a platform with 190 mn dau with a better frequency of use compared to TWTR will survive PANW - They have secular growth ahead of them. 73% gross margins. They will be a platform for network security. Missed the boat for so long.
gokou3 Posted June 11, 2018 Posted June 11, 2018 Bought Terraform Power (TERP) today. TERP just completed a private offering of $650M at $10.66/share to its sponsor Brookfield for the acquisition of Saeta Yield, owner of >1000MW of solar/wind power. 7% dividend yield, 5-8% annual growth guided by management. 80% 2018 pro-forma pay-out. First-class management and alignment of interest with Brookfield. Downside is high leverage but management states it is working on lowering to 4-5X, and the Saeta acquisition helps that effort.
gfp Posted June 12, 2018 Posted June 12, 2018 Good trade. I like BRK at 193.80 and I like $600... Either way is nice. Its great to sell these close dated options on a Friday (before holiday weekends are even better) - even though it's all supposed to be priced in, I find that once it becomes the week of expiry, people's appetite for allowing nice premium diminishes quickly. Wrote 5 June 15 expiration 195 strike BRKB puts for $1.20 per share
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