Xerxes Posted December 30, 2022 Share Posted December 30, 2022 Things are never bad as they look in the worse of times (interest rate headwind) and never as good as they look in the best of times (interest rate tailwind). On BX, at some point in IDK late 2023, the DE will/hope (?) bottom out, and so will the share price. While “harvest” and realizing gains is on pause, seeds are to be planted by BX counter cyclically. Until then the collapse in the multiple is warranted, until they can demonstrate to the market that the asset-light business is an “all weather” business. Given that there is no post-BX-IPO historical data on this business as light asset business operating in normalized rate environment. Lastly while the business certainly had a tailwind in a zero rate world, as institutional capital flowed in, and while the IPO was in 2009. it does not mean that John Grey and Steve Schawrzman were born yesterday (I.e the day before zero rate kicked in 08-09). They know a thing or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Viking Posted December 30, 2022 Share Posted December 30, 2022 (edited) Over the past week: SU, GOOG, AMZN, META, QCOM, DIS I also rebuilt my dividend portfolio (mostly Canadian stuff): TRP, ENB, T, BCE, VZ, BNS, CM, CWB, WFC, C, SLF, GWO, DXT Edited December 30, 2022 by Viking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dinar Posted December 30, 2022 Share Posted December 30, 2022 Bought Clipper (CLPR) today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
n.r98 Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 Thanks for the informative responses - wish everyone a great (maybe debaucherous?) New Year in advance. Let's get em benjamins for 2023! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luca Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 Yesterday I added to Micron, Meta, TSMC, Amazon, opened a small position on Kering, sold some Berkshire to buy more Alphabet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedLion Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 20 hours ago, Xerxes said: Until then the collapse in the multiple is warranted, until they can demonstrate to the market that the asset-light business is an “all weather” business. Given that there is no post-BX-IPO historical data on this business as light asset business operating in normalized rate environment. Lastly while the business certainly had a tailwind in a zero rate world, as institutional capital flowed in, and while the IPO was in 2009. it does not mean that John Grey and Steve Schawrzman were born yesterday (I.e the day before zero rate kicked in 08-09). They know a thing or two. To be fair, the IPO was in mid 2007 right before the collapse. The market was quite excited to see BX IPO (when the fed funds rate was north of 5%) and then the stock just got completely gutted over the next couple years. BX went on to gain it all back and then become ~7 bagger from IPO price to the peak, plus payout more than the IPO price in dividends. BX literally IPO'd with great hype based on the historical figures of 5%+ on the federal funds rate. Also, BX is far more diversified and earns a very healthy percentage of its income from FRE. I think it's fair to see BX trade at a lower multiple of Distributable Earnings, but at the bare minimum the business should be worth 20X FRE with the carry for free. This would put it at $86 based on trailing FRE. I believe this is a very conservative valuation, but that's around when I started backing up the truck, because I don't like paying for carried interest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luca Posted January 2, 2023 Share Posted January 2, 2023 Added to FFH, Meta,Alphabet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
competitive-advantage Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 Bought Apple. I made the order in the weekend and did not expect Apple to go down so quickly to $125.45. I feel good about this investment after reading the annual reports of Apple, Samsung, Mediatek, Xiaomi, Vivo and Alphabet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dinar Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 CNQ - Canadian Natural Resources Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dipod Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 CNQ, SU, JOE, AMZN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luca Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 2 hours ago, competitive-advantage said: Bought Apple. I made the order in the weekend and did not expect Apple to go down so quickly to $125.45. I feel good about this investment after reading the annual reports of Apple, Samsung, Mediatek, Xiaomi, Vivo and Alphabet. Buffett liked it even a bit higher. My concern is how much innovation they can pull off to gather more market share but one might not even need that. Just growing in the other markets/emerging markets+buybacks should reward you. Services are also growing. What is your thesis longterm? How do you see apples future? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mephistopheles Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 AMR, BTU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cwericb Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 Little bit of CKI.T (Clarke Inc) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luca Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 More TSMC and Amazon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cod Liver Oil Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 Apple Card/Apple Pay is a gorgeous system. Does anyone else use it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luca Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 13 minutes ago, Cod Liver Oil said: Apple Card/Apple Pay is a gorgeous system. Does anyone else use it? I have an iPhone 13 Pro and i use Apple Pay whenever i go to any store. Have 4 Cards on Apple Pay and my Wallets are all digital. Great System but we also have google pay, Samsung pay etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RetroRanger Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 More Haier D-Shares 690D.DE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
competitive-advantage Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 (edited) 16 hours ago, Luca said: Buffett liked it even a bit higher. My concern is how much innovation they can pull off to gather more market share but one might not even need that. Just growing in the other markets/emerging markets+buybacks should reward you. Services are also growing. What is your thesis longterm? How do you see apples future? Thanks for asking Their focus on the customers will make them sustain and grew their position in the future. I had iPhones for many years and recently bought a Macbook Air. That made me realize how good the products really are. My photos and passwords are stored in the cloud, so that combined with the user experience there is no chance I’m changing to another brand. There may be stronger competive advantages out there, but within my circle of competence they’re hard to find. I will do my best anyway Edited January 4, 2023 by competitive-advantage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luca Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 34 minutes ago, competitive-advantage said: Thanks for asking Their focus on the customers will make them sustain and grew their position in the future. I had iPhones for many years and recently bought a Macbook Air. That made me realize how good the products really are. My photos and passwords are stored in the cloud, so that combined with the user experience there is no chance I’m changing to another brand. There may be stronger competive advantages out there, but within my circle of competence they’re hard to find. I will do my best anyway Yeah, its a great eco system and i agree that with mobile phones and laptops apple has and makes the best product. Desktop pcs i still prefer my own windows machine. Now you also have the cloud, services, apple music refining the whole eco system even more. Still, I think PE of 20 is an attractive entry for sure, doesnt have to grow that much to be rewarded/minimizing downside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cod Liver Oil Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 (edited) The brands which offer the best customer experience imo are Apple, Nintendo and Disney. They will survive and thrive under most economic conditions. Google is more indispensable than fun, but also fantastic (if ChatGPT lights a fire under their ass, so much the better). A pretty good line up at these prices. I think you can own these and have time to pick up your kids at school every day. Please pitch other contenders for best customer experience. Edited January 4, 2023 by Cod Liver Oil 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValueArb Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 1 hour ago, competitive-advantage said: Thanks for asking Their focus on the customers will make them sustain and grew their position in the future. I had iPhones for many years and recently bought a Macbook Air. That made me realize how good the products really are. My photos and passwords are stored in the cloud, so that combined with the user experience there is no chance I’m changing to another brand. There may be stronger competive advantages out there, but within my circle of competence they’re hard to find. I will do my best anyway Apple Silicon has also given them a new competitive advantage, especially in laptops where its combination of performance and low power usage is way ahead of Intel/AMD. But it remains to be seen how long they can keep their lead, last time they went their own way with processors (PowerPC) they couldn't keep up with x86 over time. They still haven't been able to scale Apple Silicon to Mac Pros yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crs223 Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 3 hours ago, Cod Liver Oil said: The brands which offer the best customer experience imo are Apple, Nintendo and Disney. They will survive and thrive under most economic conditions. Google is more indispensable than fun, but also fantastic (if ChatGPT lights a fire under their ass, so much the better). A pretty good line up at these prices. I think you can own these and have time to pick up your kids at school every day. Please pitch other contenders for best customer experience. I love your comment. especially the reframe of ChatGPT as a catalyst for google innovation. What do you mean by “still have time to pick up the kids”? Sorry i don't get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedLion Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 Bought back all my puts except BX. GOOGL MED ESS AVB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cod Liver Oil Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 (edited) @crs223i just mean you can own that stuff and not angst about trading it and end your workday at 3 to pick up the kids at school. My friend at IBM confirmed that the AI space is Alphabet’s to lose. I hope they are losing some sleep over it. YouTube is kicking ass and cloud also growing well. Clearly a great company with a moderate to severe case of complacency. Ironic justice served as MSFT is tanking as it announces the Bing/Chatgpt combination. Edited January 4, 2023 by Cod Liver Oil Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
competitive-advantage Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 (edited) 5 hours ago, ValueArb said: Apple Silicon has also given them a new competitive advantage, especially in laptops where its combination of performance and low power usage is way ahead of Intel/AMD. But it remains to be seen how long they can keep their lead, last time they went their own way with processors (PowerPC) they couldn't keep up with x86 over time. They still haven't been able to scale Apple Silicon to Mac Pros yet. Thanks. I have no idea how this will affect sales. When I buy tech products it's not because the device is the fastest. I will do some more research about this development and which factors customers value highest, so I'm aware of that. Edited January 4, 2023 by competitive-advantage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now