giofranchi Posted April 28, 2015 Share Posted April 28, 2015 FFH likely doesn't have the same muddle-through returns as 20% by next January, because I think most of the multiple expansion has already happened. I agree. Period. But I would also add that, when I buy a business, what happens from April until January of the next year is only part of the picture. And multiple expansion is only the frost on the cake. GLRE and TPRE are the only two I know of that are cheaper and have significant equity hedges. Of course you are already aware of them. No, I don’t think either GLRE or TPRE are as well positioned as FFH. I don’t think OAK is as well positioned as FFH. I don’t think KO nor other blue chips are as well positioned as FFH. If we really end-up having deflation, it is true GLRE, TPRE, OAK, and KO will still make some money, but will most probably surprise on the downside. FFH’s business results, instead, might very well surprise on the upside. This is very important imo, not because FFH’s stock price will perform better than the rest… If I am invested in FFH today, it is precisely because I am agnostic about stock price movements… I simply don’t know how stock prices will move. Instead, it is important because FFH in that situation might come to possess the wherewithal to buy lots of greatly productive assets at bargain prices. Much more than GLRE, TPRE, OAK, and KO will be able to do. Carnegie, Rockefeller, Mellon, etc. all have become fabulously rich that way. No one knows if that will happen again. But, even if there were only very slight chances, I want to participate. Cheers, Gio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meiroy Posted April 28, 2015 Share Posted April 28, 2015 When the market really crashes reflexivity becomes far more dominant with any problems in the capital structure becoming much more obvious. I would not expect FFH or any such large company to have strong enough buyer of last resort with the interest to keep it significantly over the general market. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giofranchi Posted April 28, 2015 Share Posted April 28, 2015 When the market really crashes reflexivity becomes far more dominant with any problems in the capital structure becoming much more obvious. I would not expect FFH or any such large company to have strong enough buyer of last resort with the interest to keep it significantly over the general market. You are talking about the FFH stock price. I don’t talk about what a stock price will do in the future. Instead, I am talking about the billions from its bonds portfolio, its equity hedges, and its CPI-linked derivative contracts. And about the assets FFH might be able to buy with those billions. Cheers, Gio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
no_free_lunch Posted April 29, 2015 Share Posted April 29, 2015 I bought a decently sized position in Open Text today. They do digital document management and are expanding out from there. It is a well run, fast growing company (15%+) going for about 15-16x fcf. ROE is about 25%. It has been mentioned by Donville Kent and Turtle Creek, both of whom have outstanding long-term records. Stock sold off on a weak quarter and currency effects. Should be a good long-term hold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KCLarkin Posted April 29, 2015 Share Posted April 29, 2015 I bought a decently sized position in Open Text today. I was trying to buy this morning but it bounced before I could get in. Seems to frequently have a sharp gap down and then a sharp rebound. Still down ~6% so I hope to accumulate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
no_free_lunch Posted April 29, 2015 Share Posted April 29, 2015 Even where it is trading right this minute, $52.08, I think it is an incredible bargain. Based on the most recent quarter, free cash flow is annualized around $450M. So the company is trading in the vicinity of 15x fcf. It really should trade for at least 20x, given if nothing else that it has strong recurring revenue. When you factor in management's ability to acquire and control costs, it should probably trade at more of a growth multiple, likely 25-30x. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giofranchi Posted April 30, 2015 Share Posted April 30, 2015 I have just bought more PSH. Cheers, Gio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bargainhunter Posted April 30, 2015 Share Posted April 30, 2015 Just significantly increased my position in SNMX. As per today's earnings release Pepsi commercialization is on track for mid 2015. Just as important, direct sales are ramping up. Look at the trend in sales wins over the past several quarters. 0, 1, 3, 6. We are on the cusp of a major ramping up in revenues here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muscleman Posted April 30, 2015 Share Posted April 30, 2015 I converted USD into EUR, wired to Fidelity and bought a meaningful stake in Bank of Cyprus. :D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frommi Posted April 30, 2015 Share Posted April 30, 2015 Bought CHEF and QQQ puts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ross812 Posted April 30, 2015 Share Posted April 30, 2015 Bought CHEF and QQQ puts. I have a gtc buy order in for 17.5 on CHEF. Rinse and repeat on this one. The $23 month out options were going for $1.3 in March. I couldn't resist... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frommi Posted April 30, 2015 Share Posted April 30, 2015 Bought CHEF and QQQ puts. I have a gtc buy order in for 17.5 on CHEF. Rinse and repeat on this one. The $23 month out options were going for $1.3 in March. I couldn't resist... I once had a limit order in for FIAT. Guess what happened. :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buylowersellhigh Posted April 30, 2015 Share Posted April 30, 2015 Ross, What is your thesis on CHEF? TIA Bought CHEF and QQQ puts. I have a gtc buy order in for 17.5 on CHEF. Rinse and repeat on this one. The $23 month out options were going for $1.3 in March. I couldn't resist... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ross812 Posted April 30, 2015 Share Posted April 30, 2015 Ross, What is your thesis on CHEF? TIA Bought CHEF and QQQ puts. I have a gtc buy order in for 17.5 on CHEF. Rinse and repeat on this one. The $23 month out options were going for $1.3 in March. I couldn't resist... http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/investment-ideas/chef-the-chefs'-warehouse/ There is quite a bit in there. I'm pretty comfortable with food distribution and I think CHEF is in an great niche market. I'm not as excited with their center of plate purchases (i.e. beef - too cyclical), but we are definitely on an upswing of cycle right now. They should make money on the next down swing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lance Posted May 1, 2015 Share Posted May 1, 2015 Bought FFXDF (Fairfax India Hldgs Corp), closed my LNKD short. Thanks, Lance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavidVY Posted May 1, 2015 Share Posted May 1, 2015 Bought a few more things -Houston Wire and Cable (HWCC) : Distribution company of wire and cable. Good track record so far. Energy crisis has sent all these distribution companies down. 1/3 of its clientele is energy related, but realistically only upstream is going to be affected. Midstream and downstream are probably passing on lower energy costs to consumer and demand is staying relatively the same (or higher) -Amdocs (DOX) - Customer Experience Software. Stable company, high cash flows, zero debt. Handles accounting and billing for most major telcos worldwide. Niche segment w/low margin but high volume <--- Entry to barrier. Highly technical company (minus) but excellent capital allocators and growing slowly into new spaces Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Travis Wiedower Posted May 1, 2015 Share Posted May 1, 2015 OUTR and LGIH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest notorious546 Posted May 2, 2015 Share Posted May 2, 2015 OPY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlCDore Posted May 2, 2015 Share Posted May 2, 2015 Bought FFXDF (Fairfax India Hldgs Corp), closed my LNKD short. Thanks, Lance Lance, Did that just get listed? Why didn't you buy FIH (in Canada)? Thanks, AtlCDore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurgis Posted May 2, 2015 Share Posted May 2, 2015 Bought FFXDF (Fairfax India Hldgs Corp), closed my LNKD short. Thanks, Lance Lance, Did that just get listed? Why didn't you buy FIH (in Canada)? Thanks, AtlCDore One reason to buy FFXDF is if your broker does not allow international stocks. Or if your broker does not allow international stocks in IRA and you want the position in IRA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TorontoRaptorsFan Posted May 4, 2015 Share Posted May 4, 2015 CTRL - Control 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavidVY Posted May 4, 2015 Share Posted May 4, 2015 Bought Genworth today (GNW) -Selling at 35% book value - PMI insurance has stabilized - Life insurance is in the mix too. I think fair value is in the 60-75% BV range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatientCheetah Posted May 5, 2015 Share Posted May 5, 2015 CTRL - Control 4 what's your thesis on it? i owned it before, sold it at a loss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TorontoRaptorsFan Posted May 5, 2015 Share Posted May 5, 2015 Home Automation is a growing sector Seems undervalued considering the interest PE firms have in the sector (ie-KKR investment in Savant & Sonos) Growing dealer base to sell the product Apps that work on both Android and Apple platforms Been in business now for over 12 years Could migrate platform to a cloud based model that would help with recurring monthly revenue from users (ie-similar to security contracts but to monitor every aspect of home - pool, spa, lights, audio-video, security, HVAC, cameras) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valuebo Posted May 5, 2015 Share Posted May 5, 2015 AIQ. Market keeps ignoring this one. Superlow daily volume driving the stock lower again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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