What are you buying today?

[Cod Liver Oil]

hey @Castanza I have found that buying stuff while holding nose usually ends well. 

 

Separately, to test out @MMM20's thesis that V has an >80% chance of outperforming Nintendo over a 5 year period, I bought some V at 311 and NTDOY at 13.75 on March 9, 2026. Please check back occasionally to see who is more foolish.

 

Edited March 10 by Cod Liver Oil

[Eldad]

BRO, smells pretty good to me. 

[frommi]

Changed my software basket after learning more, sold Wolters Kluwer and Factset and added to LMN and TOI. My software basket which is 20% of my networth now is only CSU, TOI and LMN. 

[MungerWunger]

1 minute ago, frommi said:

Changed my software basket after learning more, sold Wolters Kluwer and Factset and added to LMN and TOI. My software basket which is 20% of my networth now is only CSU, TOI and LMN. 

nice choices!

[frommi]

37 minutes ago, MungerWunger said:

nice choices!

Its the first time that i think that i can hold a stock for the very very long time, because they do value investing much more efficient and with a much higher CAGR than i could ever do it.

Edited March 10 by frommi

[giulio]

I keep adding to stvn around 15 and umg below 18.

[jfan]

1 hour ago, frommi said:

Changed my software basket after learning more, sold Wolters Kluwer and Factset and added to LMN and TOI. My software basket which is 20% of my networth now is only CSU, TOI and LMN. 

How did you divide up your position size among the three entities if you don't mind me asking and why? 

[Red Lion]

Started a position in BLDR and added a bit to OWL. 

[frommi]

21 minutes ago, jfan said:

How did you divide up your position size among the three entities if you don't mind me asking and why? 

13% in CSU, 5% in LMN and 2% in TOI.

TOI is lowest because i don't like the complexity of all the stuff and that they are already levered 2x. (and i was not able to buy more at a 5% fcf yield)

CSU is the biggest because it is also the safest in my mind with its 800 sub-businesses.

5% LMN because thats my limit of how big i go for not-so-diversified businesses, but i think it has the biggest runway because of size and how they do their aquisitions and they have no debt right now.

Edited March 10 by frommi

[WayWardCloud]

2 hours ago, giulio said:

I keep adding to stvn around 15 and umg below 18.

Thanks for putting UMG back on my radar. I've always liked the business but not the price. Now it seems cheap. Any particular reason they're down so much? Do you care to share your thesis?

[thowed]

6 hours ago, frommi said:

Changed my software basket after learning more, sold Wolters Kluwer and Factset and added to LMN and TOI. My software basket which is 20% of my networth now is only CSU, TOI and LMN. 

 

Nice!  No SGN though?

[Spekulatius]

20 hours ago, KPO said:

I have a lot of respect for your views after following your thoughts for probably as long as I’ve been on here. Outside of the Leucadia historical connection, what gives you comfort in trusting these guys? I looked at it recently after following for over 20 years, but now that it’s JEF it seems much more like a black box. 

It’s an investment bank. From time to time, things will get messy. JEF is well capitalized but profitability is mediocre. I think this is one where you can wait out the current news flow and probably sell your shares at $60 or higher in 2 years.

 

I think eventually this will get sold to a foreign bidder who wants to have a toe hold in US investment banking (Sumitomo?)

[frommi]

7 hours ago, thowed said:

 

Nice!  No SGN though?

Thx for bringing it up, i have to dig deeper.
EDIT: Looked at it, they have quite different reporting than the other CSU businesses and buy back shares at a 6% fcf yield, i am not sure how deep the CSU culture is there. Or their TAM is very limited. For now i will just observe. Recurring revenue is also very low, this looks more like a consulting company to me.

Edited March 11 by frommi

[giulio]

14 hours ago, WayWardCloud said:

Thanks for putting UMG back on my radar. I've always liked the business but not the price. Now it seems cheap. Any particular reason they're down so much? Do you care to share your thesis?

I can only speculate on why is down this much, all reasons have nothing to do with business performance -> 1) some investors think Bollore will sell down a big block if french court forces him to buy vivendi, 2) UMG shelved its us listing plans, possibly leading to investors selling as there's "no near term catalyst", 3) AI fears, 4) UMG did not announce a buyback, some think mgmt is bad at capital allocation.

 

Here is a recent letter by the CEO of Warner Music which describes the opportunity better than me! https://www.wmg.com/news/a-letter-to-our-shareholders

 

Based on their CMD guidance, I think UMG can grow revenue at 8% (9-10% including M&A) and EBITDA at 12-13% over the next 5 years.

So far you had only subscribers growth. Starting from this year, thanks to new contracts with DSPs, you'll see the benefit of price increases (irrespective of whether DSPs decide to raise prices) on top of subs growth.

There are many additional nuances, but that's the thesis in a nutshell!

[thowed]

6 hours ago, frommi said:

Thx for bringing it up, i have to dig deeper.
EDIT: Looked at it, they have quite different reporting than the other CSU businesses and buy back shares at a 6% fcf yield, i am not sure how deep the CSU culture is there. Or their TAM is very limited. For now i will just observe. Recurring revenue is also very low, this looks more like a consulting company to me.

 

I think the buybacks have been in part (or main) because the float is so low (as CSU own 73%) and they want to have shares for employees to buy to incentivise them.

 

Also the recurring revenue is growing with recent acquisition of Medical company which has been signing a bunch of deals recently which should be pretty steady. 

 

[Cod Liver Oil]

@giulio yes, UMG is orphaned. Ackman and Bollore left the board, growth problems, technical overhang from Bollore reorg., fear of Suno etc..... but it's still a solid business.  There are no natural buyers for this security, it is stranded in Amsterdam, everyone is underwater, no sponsors.  We own Bollore and Odet in decent size.

 

Edited March 11 by Cod Liver Oil

[DooDiligence]

I got stranded in Amsterdam one time back on 9/11

Melkveg anyone?

 

[CorpRaider]

On 3/6/2026 at 12:59 PM, KPO said:

RYN

Curious as to your thesis; if you´ve posted elsewhere and could direct me I would appreciate it.

[WayWardCloud]

8 hours ago, giulio said:

I can only speculate on why is down this much, all reasons have nothing to do with business performance -> 1) some investors think Bollore will sell down a big block if french court forces him to buy vivendi, 2) UMG shelved its us listing plans, possibly leading to investors selling as there's "no near term catalyst", 3) AI fears, 4) UMG did not announce a buyback, some think mgmt is bad at capital allocation.

 

Here is a recent letter by the CEO of Warner Music which describes the opportunity better than me! https://www.wmg.com/news/a-letter-to-our-shareholders

 

Based on their CMD guidance, I think UMG can grow revenue at 8% (9-10% including M&A) and EBITDA at 12-13% over the next 5 years.

So far you had only subscribers growth. Starting from this year, thanks to new contracts with DSPs, you'll see the benefit of price increases (irrespective of whether DSPs decide to raise prices) on top of subs growth.

There are many additional nuances, but that's the thesis in a nutshell!

Thank you! I absolutely love the asset but not the management. Blocking a US listing is clearly acting against their own shareholders interest. I think it's still a good opportunity at today's price for the first time since IPO and your thesis makes a lot of sense. I think you will do well. I would seriously consider it if I didn't have too many positions already. There have been so many exciting opportunities in the last ~4 months that I get to be very picky with who I do business with and those guys don't cut it. They're sitting on a golden goose though.

Edited March 11 by WayWardCloud

[KPO]

4 hours ago, CorpRaider said:

Curious as to your thesis; if you´ve posted elsewhere and could direct me I would appreciate it.

I haven’t posted on it, but similar to WY you’re getting cash flowing land well below replacement value for just under $1800 an acre at the current quote. There’s pasture land 25+ miles from where I live that generates barely enough to cover property taxes, yet it sells for >$9,000 per acre.  So the simple thesis is it’s an inflation hedge and a better store of value than non-income producing assets like gold or crypto.
 

It’s trading close to levels not seen in over 20 years immediately after the PotlachDeltic transaction, which will give them more scale. Additionally the combined company owns three MPC’s with total developable acreage of around 40,000, which you effectively get for free. This certainly isn’t JOE, but it’s cheap here against its own history and private market value of the land.

Further, all of this is happening against a political backdrop where one of the only things both parties are actively pursuing is affordable home ownership. Much of the mortgage and housing friendly legislation being proposed can only help both companies. 

As an aside, I’m surprised a Malone, Gates, Ellison, Turner, etc. haven’t tried to take one these two out, as you’d be the largest land owner in the US by a wide margin with the stroke of a pen. 

[KPO]

GPN

[Eldad]

50 minutes ago, KPO said:

I haven’t posted on it, but similar to WY you’re getting cash flowing land well below replacement value for just under $1800 an acre at the current quote. There’s pasture land 25+ miles from where I live that generates barely enough to cover property taxes, yet it sells for >$9,000 per acre.  So the simple thesis is it’s an inflation hedge and a better store of value than non-income producing assets like gold or crypto.
 

It’s trading close to levels not seen in over 20 years immediately after the PotlachDeltic transaction, which will give them more scale. Additionally the combined company owns three MPC’s with total developable acreage of around 40,000, which you effectively get for free. This certainly isn’t JOE, but it’s cheap here against its own history and private market value of the land.

Further, all of this is happening against a political backdrop where one of the only things both parties are actively pursuing is affordable home ownership. Much of the mortgage and housing friendly legislation being proposed can only help both companies. 

As an aside, I’m surprised a Malone, Gates, Ellison, Turner, etc. haven’t tried to take one these two out, as you’d be the largest land owner in the US by a wide margin with the stroke of a pen. 

I live in AR. People from the coasts are always blown away by the land value here. I don’t know anyone here that would pay more than say $1500 an acre for cutover timberland. It says 1/3rd of their Southern land is basically creek beds and swamp. That is worth about $750-$800 an acre. Just a word of caution that $9,000 does not even remotely apply in the states where they own land. 

[KPO]

23 minutes ago, Eldad said:

I live in AR. People from the coasts are always blown away by the land value here. I don’t know anyone here that would pay more than say $1500 an acre for cutover timberland. It says 1/3rd of their Southern land is basically creek beds and swamp. That is worth about $750-$800 an acre. Just a word of caution that $9,000 does not even remotely apply in the states where they own land. 

The $9K is in rural eastern Kansas. Not timberland, but not exactly South Florida. The more valuable land RYN owns is in Washington, Idaho and FL. It’s definitely on average worth more than $1800. The lowest value land they own happens to be in AR and West Texas. I’d put it at $800-1200, and that’s using OK panhandle valuations I’m familiar with from over 10 years ago. 

[nsx5200]

On 3/7/2026 at 3:15 PM, backtothebeach said:

I kind of think it's a toss up from here on out, and with what you call the random walk of two stocks/variables, I wouldn't be surprised to see the two stock prices cross paths again in the future, even though they are not in the same sector.

A bit late, but... Thank you for sharing your thought.  It's a good problem to have when you need to decide between two good choices.  I much prefer that than having to decide between two bad choices.

[Eldad]

12 minutes ago, KPO said:

The $9K is in rural eastern Kansas. Not timberland, but not exactly South Florida. The more valuable land RYN owns is in Washington, Idaho and FL. It’s definitely on average worth more than $1800. The lowest value land they own happens to be in AR and West Texas. I’d put it at $800-1200, and that’s using OK panhandle valuations I’m familiar with from over 10 years ago. 

Ok sounds like you have dug in. But panhandle of OK is like waste land, cattle country but 800-1200 is fair. Then add the timber value. But the AR, West TX, MS, LA, and probably most of the AL has almost no development value whatsoever now or in 50 years. Your KS land will probably be part of Kansas City in 50 years and there are a lot more wealthy people looking for a hobby farm etc I am guessing.