What are you buying today?

[Mephistopheles]

MGM, CROX

[dipod]

Shorted some puts on CROX expiring this Friday.

[coffeecaninvestor]

Sold NGG and put some of it to work into CPRT, RTO, AMRZ, BRO, BAH, MMC, OTCM, NVR, LOW

[Spekulatius]

Added a few ODET.PA shares.

[tnathan]

Just a general comment, but there are SO MANY DEALS right now in unloved sectors (insurance, defensives, res. reits, data providers, software, healthcare). They probably won't work until this AI stuff clears but what a great opp for 3-5 yr holds

Edited October 6, 2025 by tnathan

[Spekulatius]

23 minutes ago, tnathan said:

Just a general comment, but there are SO MANY DEALS right now in unloved sectors (insurance, defensives, res. reits, data providers, software, healthcare). They probably won't work until this AI stuff clears but what a great opp for 3-5 yr holds

I totally agree. The AI firestorm, seems to suck the oxygen out of the air for pretty much anything  else. However like other firestorms, this one won’t last forever and leave behind a lot of scorched earth.

[coffeecaninvestor]

30 minutes ago, tnathan said:

Just a general comment, but there are SO MANY DEALS right now in unloved sectors (insurance, defensives, res. reits, data providers, software, healthcare). They probably won't work until this AI stuff clears but what a great opp for 3-5 yr holds

I’ve largely stayed away from most of these sectors (reits, data providers, software, healthcare) so haven’t had the confidence to buy any of them, but I was thinking of a diversified basket approach and just DCA in slowly. 

[bizaro86]

On 10/4/2025 at 8:43 AM, Spekulatius said:

 Other datapoint is that utility power rates in New England are already very high and receiving more and more backslash from the public. I think over the last 10 years the price of power in NE has increased more than in Europe

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU011072610

2025 is not in the chart and has seen another jump based on my last bills before I sold my house in MA. This imo does not bode well for NGG ability to push through price increases with regulators there.

 

I think power prices in the NE have increased dramatically primarily because nat gas prices there have de-coupled from the rest of the US due to lack of pipeline capacity. There's lots of cheap gas in PA and WV in the Marcellus - if there was political will to build a pipeline consumer energy prices would decline. 

 

And I think that's more likely in the current political climate.

[Saluki]

small adds to JOE and CROX. 

[Jaygo]

bought a critical mineral stock this morning on the TML news. Its a gross speculation and I feel dirty. Talon for those interested. Nickel in Minnesota. 

 

[Hsmpanl]

1 hour ago, Saluki said:

small adds to JOE and CROX. 

+1, this is the way

[Cod Liver Oil]

@tnathan and @Spekulatius the velocity of capital flowing into AI and chips is breathtaking; it creates a vacuum behind it which leaves a bunch of boring insurance, RE and aggregate businesses sucking wind.  My bro at Google confirms they cannot get the chips they need to build stuff.  Adding to Amrize and Bollore.

Edited October 7, 2025 by Cod Liver Oil

[Zemergefen]

Starter position in Amrize

[Eldad]

CNSWF again after thinking about it. 

[lnofeisone]

15 hours ago, coffeecaninvestor said:

I’ve largely stayed away from most of these sectors (reits, data providers, software, healthcare) so haven’t had the confidence to buy any of them, but I was thinking of a diversified basket approach and just DCA in slowly. 

This is what I'm doing with Fidelity automated investments. Unloved stocks and just buying them weekly. 

[coffeecaninvestor]

6 minutes ago, lnofeisone said:

This is what I'm doing with Fidelity automated investments. Unloved stocks and just buying them weekly. 

Yeah they have a feature you can create your own ETF for $5/month. Not a bad way to go about it. 

[lnofeisone]

9 minutes ago, coffeecaninvestor said:

Yeah they have a feature you can create your own ETF for $5/month. Not a bad way to go about it. 

You can do it for free with automated investments. You can fix the investment amount, say $50/week/stock. I think ETF allows you to auto-rebalance, but I adjust my investment amounts quarterly. 

[hardcorevalue]

17 hours ago, tnathan said:

Just a general comment, but there are SO MANY DEALS right now in unloved sectors (insurance, defensives, res. reits, data providers, software, healthcare). They probably won't work until this AI stuff clears but what a great opp for 3-5 yr holds

 

Thanks any favourite names Nathan?

[Red Lion]

On 10/4/2025 at 5:59 AM, Junior R said:

looking to start a position in OWL if it drops under $16

I've been playing with the idea of adding to OWL at these levels too. I feel more comfortable with the risk profile of APO at this price though. 

[Junior R]

1 minute ago, Red Lion said:

I've been playing with the idea of adding to OWL at these levels too. I feel more comfortable with the risk profile of APO at this price though. 

yeah APO is better buy based on risk vs owl...I did added APO last week...I am also looking to add more PAX if it drops more

[fareastwarriors]

Amrize and JOE

[LC]

48 minutes ago, Junior R said:

yeah APO is better buy based on risk vs owl...I did added APO last week...I am also looking to add more PAX if it drops more

 

Given all the different private equity/private credit these asset mgrs provide, all different types of companies they invest in and all the financial engineering, how do you assess risk here? 

[Junior R]

Just now, LC said:

 

Given all the different private equity/private credit these asset mgrs provide, all different types of companies they invest in and all the financial engineering, how do you assess risk here? 

I asses it based on management and how they where able to deliver what they promised in the past but that's all you could really do lol 

[Red Lion]

17 minutes ago, LC said:

 

Given all the different private equity/private credit these asset mgrs provide, all different types of companies they invest in and all the financial engineering, how do you assess risk here? 

 

I'll give a bit of a stab at it. 

 

Apollo has a sterling track record in credit going back for decades. It's not a gigantic part of their business, but even today you see Apollo in bankruptcy court and restructurings all the time, and it seems like they always come out ahead. I know this is anecdotal, but this is a huge factor in my comfort level here. 

 

They have an extended track record of outperformance at Athene compared to competitors. They match liabilities and asset duration. They have been taking outside capital to invest in sidecars which reduces the balance sheet commitment to the annuity/retirement subsidiaries. Underperformance on the annuity business is IMHO the most likely risk to materialize, but I don't see that ruining the investment at these valuations and growth rates in the asset management business. This is the hardest part of the business to analyze, but it's also an annuity business that isn't taking huge open ended risk on the liability side and is investing in privately originated investment grade credit on the asset side. 

 

They have a head start to the competition underwriting large amounts of private investment grade credit. Again, back to my first point, I think Apollo's decades of experience winning on the credit side of things gives me much more comfort as to their underwriting than e.g. OWL. 

 

A couple followup points:

 

PE - is not the growth story here, but Apollo's most recent flagship fund has been outperforming most of the competition due to a value focus. 

 

RETIREMENT - The retirement market is enormous, and we are in the early stages of seeing private assets rolled out to the private market. I'm sure traditional PE will see some flows of money from the retirement market, but I think the massive opportunity is going to be private credit and maybe hybrids. 

 

BX and KKR both have very impressive PE credentials, but I think Apollo is situated to be the front runner on private credit type funds. These asset management FRE are valued at a high multiple by the market. I'm betting that this is the next growth tailwind that drives Apollo to outperform over the next 10 years or so. 

 

[tnathan]

4 hours ago, hardcorevalue said:

 

Thanks any favourite names Nathan?

Yeah health insurance names are both cheap and starting to trade well. Love ELV + MOH. I have a lot of the insurance brokers too, but have been building smaller positions in FI, FIS, VRSK, CWST, WCN, ALSN, TW, ACGL. Lots more I haven't bought but would look at EXP, SFM, INVH too