What are you buying today?

[John Hjorth]

6 minutes ago, Milu said:

Nice one John, might start to add a bit more myself later today. It’s still only a 4% position for me so might try get that up to 5 or 6%

 

Please stay stingy while bottom-fishing, @Milu

[Sweet]

55 minutes ago, This2ShallPass said:

August. I'm hoping these things playout by then one way or another..

thanks for the reply

[Milu]

50 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:

 

Please stay stingy while bottom-fishing, @Milu

Wise words. My general feeling with LVMH is the stock will likely go nowhere for the next year to 18 months, and then just double in some 6 month period. A very comfortable long term holding for me.

[John Hjorth]

1 hour ago, Milu said:

Wise words. My general feeling with LVMH is the stock will likely go nowhere for the next year to 18 months, and then just double in some 6 month period. A very comfortable long term holding for me.

 

lol! at around 13:40 : 

 

Compare to the time stamp on this :

 

[Milu]

13 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:

 

lol! at around 13:40 : 

 

Compare to the time stamp on this :

 

Looks like I’ll get a cheaper price so for today’s buy. Cue the next round of panic around tariffs for a few weeks, then trump pulls back or a deal is done and all’s right with the world.

[Spekulatius]

1 hour ago, John Hjorth said:

 

lol! at around 13:40 : 

 

Compare to the time stamp on this :

 

And some people thought LVMH can get away unscathed because they occupy some space in the Grump tower and Arnault knows Trump since the 80’s.

[Castanza]

Trimmed a hair of CCJ (+40% in 1 month) bought some CPRT and GOOGL

 

I was Stopped out of UNH at ~313 last week

 

Brings me to +28% ytd 

 

Down to ~3% cash

[John Hjorth]

51 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

And some people thought LVMH can get away unscathed because they occupy some space in the Grump tower and Arnault knows Trump since the 80’s.

 

Reminds me of a scene in 'The Mechanic' [2011], where Arthur Bishops apprentice Steve doesen't follow instructions to use Rohypnol to take out the meat mountain Burke, who has a soft spot for young males, after which things get totally out hand. And after that, Steve visits a bar for a drink, totally beat up. After which a chick adresses Steve in the bar, looks him in the eyes, saying : 'I wish somebody would hurt me like that'.

 

So, I guess, the morale is, that if you're kinky, you'll enjoy your friends hurting you. Not one word from me here about Mr. Arnault in that respect.

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

I'm likely going to buy more LVMH next week.

[John Hjorth]

On 5/8/2025 at 3:22 PM, John Hjorth said:

Started yet another position today in a tiny Danish bank :

 

SKJE.CPH [Skjern Bank A/S], trades at P/E 7.2 and P/B 1.1.

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

Got a puff in NRDF.CPH a couple of days ago, which is now proposed to merge with FYNBK.CPH, a merger that makes a lot of sense, and I will actively be voting for the merger by shares owned in both banks.

 

Started yet another small position today in a tiny Danish bank :

 

DAB.CPH [Danske Andelskassers Bank A/S], trades at P/E 12.1 and P/B 1.1.

 

CofB&F topic. Potential for a good puff in a few years, I think.

[Hektor]

16 hours ago, Gregmal said:

LOL probably got banned for being on the wrong side of the aisle again. 

[Spekulatius]

@Marco Van Basten

 

Just be careful out there:

https://www.reuters.com/article/sports/fox-sports-suspend-van-basten-for-on-air-nazi-remark-idUSKBN1Y00DB/

 

I never forget this game. Marco was a great player :

 

[Cod Liver Oil]

@dinar encouraged me to smoke some PM and TASE so I will miss him!!!!! 

[sleepydragon]

5 hours ago, Milu said:

Wise words. My general feeling with LVMH is the stock will likely go nowhere for the next year to 18 months, and then just double in some 6 month period. A very comfortable long term holding for me.

there’s simply few stocks out there right now that are owner operated, high roe, and that the owner keeps buying stocks (1billion over 1 year period), and trading at a reasonable valuation. Lvmh’s problem has less to do with tarriff. China is a bigger problem. But a decade later people will still be buying luxury bags.

 

[Marco Van Basten]

18 minutes ago, sleepydragon said:

there’s simply few stocks out there right now that are owner operated, high roe, and that the owner keeps buying stocks (1billion over 1 year period), and trading at a reasonable valuation. Lvmh’s problem has less to do with tarriff. China is a bigger problem. But a decade later people will still be buying luxury bags.

 

Yes, but it is not a simple business - look at Kering for instance.  For LVMH the key is whether they can succeed in India.  I would guess that they will do well in Africa and Latin America, but the business does have fashion risk.  You should follow Richemont, I missed it, but I'd buy it on the next sell-off.  I'd do the work on Ferrovial if I were you.  

[Marco Van Basten]

1 hour ago, Spekulatius said:

@Marco Van Basten

 

Just be careful out there:

https://www.reuters.com/article/sports/fox-sports-suspend-van-basten-for-on-air-nazi-remark-idUSKBN1Y00DB/

 

I never forget this game. Marco was a great player :

 

I remember that year well.  Nazi stuff is just abhorrent, I didn't know that.  Had I known, I would have chosen a different handle, that's the trouble with football players.  I guess Al-Farabi would have been better, eh @Xerxes?

[hasilp89]

1 hour ago, Marco Van Basten said:

Yes, but it is not a simple business - look at Kering for instance.  For LVMH the key is whether they can succeed in India.  I would guess that they will do well in Africa and Latin America, but the business does have fashion risk.  You should follow Richemont, I missed it, but I'd buy it on the next sell-off.  I'd do the work on Ferrovial if I were you.  

not sure if you saw but i believe Steven Wood got a board seat at Swatch and is going to start pushing for change. Seems like it will be tough, from what i recall mgmt there is not interested in shareholders. But will be interesting to watch.

[Marco Van Basten]

1 minute ago, hasilp89 said:

not sure if you saw but i believe Steven Wood got a board seat at Swatch and is going to start pushing for change. Seems like it will be tough, from what i recall mgmt there is not interested in shareholders. But will be interesting to watch.

I saw that, but I am frankly not sure what can be done.  Have you seen his plan?  If so can you post it?  As I have gotten older, I have realized the wisdom of Peter Lynch's quip that turnarounds rarely turn.  

[gfp]

4 minutes ago, hasilp89 said:

not sure if you saw but i believe Steven Wood got a board seat at Swatch and is going to start pushing for change. Seems like it will be tough, from what i recall mgmt there is not interested in shareholders. But will be interesting to watch.

 

Is that the guy from Correios de Portugal?  I love that guy - made a fortune two separate times on that 500 year old company!

[sleepydragon]

1 hour ago, Marco Van Basten said:

Yes, but it is not a simple business - look at Kering for instance.  For LVMH the key is whether they can succeed in India.  I would guess that they will do well in Africa and Latin America, but the business does have fashion risk.  You should follow Richemont, I missed it, but I'd buy it on the next sell-off.  I'd do the work on Ferrovial if I were you.  

kering is more fashion than luxury. Arnault had the opportunity to buy it and eventually passed. Richemont really just has one brand people care and that’s cartier, and jewelry and watch is way less profitable than bags. I think India will be tough for LVMH, wsj has a story about it recently 

[Spekulatius]

2 hours ago, Marco Van Basten said:

I remember that year well.  Nazi stuff is just abhorrent, I didn't know that.  Had I known, I would have chosen a different handle, that's the trouble with football players.  I guess Al-Farabi would have been better, eh @Xerxes?

I did not know either about the Nazi stuff before researching him. He was a great soccer player and remember that match in 1988 well when he scored the last minute. I also remember what Koeman did which was inexcusable l especially as a captain of the Dutch team. Things have cooled down a little since then.

 

Keep the handle.

[Marco Van Basten]

1 hour ago, sleepydragon said:

kering is more fashion than luxury. Arnault had the opportunity to buy it and eventually passed. Richemont really just has one brand people care and that’s cartier, and jewelry and watch is way less profitable than bags. I think India will be tough for LVMH, wsj has a story about it recently 

I missed it even though I read WSJ daily.  Would you mind linking the story?  Thank you.

[sleepydragon]

26 minutes ago, Marco Van Basten said:

I missed it even though I read WSJ daily.  Would you mind linking the story?  Thank you.

https://www.wsj.com/business/retail/china-us-tariffs-luxury-goods-market-bebf85b5?st=Dh1FWZ&reflink=article_copyURL_share

 

[sleepydragon]

One thing i like about Arnault is he still gets up like 6am on Saturday and visit stores in paris. And he tour around china and visit stores (bringing his son). There are a lot of videos on xiaohongshu by people who saw him checking out stores — especially back in 2023 when he was once the richest guy in the world.. there was even one he’s outside of Cartier’s store in shanghai

[Xerxes]

4 hours ago, Marco Van Basten said:

I remember that year well.  Nazi stuff is just abhorrent, I didn't know that.  Had I known, I would have chosen a different handle, that's the trouble with football players.  I guess Al-Farabi would have been better, eh @Xerxes?

lol. I toyed with the idea of using Ferdouwsi or Hafiz as handlers. I always like how Hafiz stood up to Timurlane, and lived to tell his tale. 
 

But ultimately, of Persian poetry I know nothing of. So went with a Achaemenid monarch with two X in the name. 

 

[bizaro86]

ROST. Down big on pulled guidance from tarriff uncertainty. Feels like a temporary headwind to me - whatever happens they'll remain the lowest cost way to buy clothes.

Edited May 25, 2025 by bizaro86