John Hjorth Posted March 28, 2025 Posted March 28, 2025 22 minutes ago, John Hjorth said: A bit more JOE today, my orders in the market got filled. 11 minutes ago, Hsmpanl said: This is the way! @Hsmpanl, I'll likely monday try to pick up more at lower prices the same way.
nsx5200 Posted March 28, 2025 Posted March 28, 2025 (edited) Feels like I'm day-trading. The limits tripped for NVO, and picked that up as well. NVO trading not that much above t-bills in terms of P/E. It is sick. Note: CLIP (short-term t-bill ETF) actually moved downward for the day, outside of the dividend distribution day. This is so abnormal. Edited March 28, 2025 by nsx5200 add note about CLIP
brobro777 Posted March 29, 2025 Posted March 29, 2025 6 hours ago, Paarslaars said: GME 25$ strike Jan '26 calls Yeah I don't know what I'm doing on a value investing forum anymore... small position though. Year like this, the gamblers with options and futures can produce returns that make all them value investor funboys mad jelly! and it's only March! Haha
tnathan Posted March 31, 2025 Posted March 31, 2025 Not the typical stock for me but I bought a 1% position in RDDT
Jaygo Posted March 31, 2025 Posted March 31, 2025 small adds to Aecon, Aritzia, Builders First, Soma Gold and a starter in TFII and CNR I recently sold half of my Junior gold exploration positions to fund this. Omai, Fortune Bay, GFG keeping the other half as it is all house money and I still believe in the shiny metal but less so in explore only companies.
DooDiligence Posted March 31, 2025 Posted March 31, 2025 11 minutes ago, tnathan said: Not the typical stock for me but I bought a 1% position in RDDT For the LLM angle?
tnathan Posted March 31, 2025 Posted March 31, 2025 1 hour ago, DooDiligence said: For the LLM angle? A few things. (1) A non-scientific belief that licensing revenue (like 90% margins on this) gets to $1B relatively quickly (currently little over 100m). Current large deals with Google and OpenAI are not close to optimized. I expect much better monetization as these + new large deals come through. At 20x multiple this is the market cap already. (2) The rest of the business is really inflecting. MAUs up 40% in the past year and they are only scratching the surface on monetizing those users. Further, its a very U.S. centric story. International underrated opportunity for them and they've been investing to make the language barrier more seamless for the platform. Lots of unknowns obviously but this is a company that I think will clearly grow vs. a lot of other question marks in todays market. Being dragged down by the broader selloff but things are improving rapidly here not declining
DooDiligence Posted March 31, 2025 Posted March 31, 2025 34 minutes ago, tnathan said: A few things. (1) A non-scientific belief that licensing revenue (like 90% margins on this) gets to $1B relatively quickly (currently little over 100m). Current large deals with Google and OpenAI are not close to optimized. I expect much better monetization as these + new large deals come through. At 20x multiple this is the market cap already. (2) The rest of the business is really inflecting. MAUs up 40% in the past year and they are only scratching the surface on monetizing those users. Further, its a very U.S. centric story. International underrated opportunity for them and they've been investing to make the language barrier more seamless for the platform. Lots of unknowns obviously but this is a company that I think will clearly grow vs. a lot of other question marks in todays market. Being dragged down by the broader selloff but things are improving rapidly here not declining I find it very useful alongside YouTube for lessons, DIY's and more. Probably should be a thread here?
This2ShallPass Posted April 1, 2025 Posted April 1, 2025 14 hours ago, tnathan said: A few things. (1) A non-scientific belief that licensing revenue (like 90% margins on this) gets to $1B relatively quickly (currently little over 100m). Current large deals with Google and OpenAI are not close to optimized. I expect much better monetization as these + new large deals come through. At 20x multiple this is the market cap already. (2) The rest of the business is really inflecting. MAUs up 40% in the past year and they are only scratching the surface on monetizing those users. Further, its a very U.S. centric story. International underrated opportunity for them and they've been investing to make the language barrier more seamless for the platform. Lots of unknowns obviously but this is a company that I think will clearly grow vs. a lot of other question marks in todays market. Being dragged down by the broader selloff but things are improving rapidly here not declining I have RDDT as part of my growth stock bucket of ~10% (well they performed themselves down to 7.5% with the recent selloff:)). Added more in the $110s. I think about these companies not in terms of traditional valuation metrics but the opportunity in front of them and how big can they become. Reddit is becoming the next "Google" in terms of popularity and indispensability. Their data is a treasure trove in the AI age and I see it as more icing on the cake. They absolutely have the potential to 10x. But because these companies are so volatile, need to be ready for 50% drawdowns in the blink of an eye and position size appropriately..
Junior R Posted April 1, 2025 Posted April 1, 2025 15 hours ago, This2ShallPass said: I have RDDT as part of my growth stock bucket of ~10% (well they performed themselves down to 7.5% with the recent selloff:)). Added more in the $110s. I think about these companies not in terms of traditional valuation metrics but the opportunity in front of them and how big can they become. Reddit is becoming the next "Google" in terms of popularity and indispensability. Their data is a treasure trove in the AI age and I see it as more icing on the cake. They absolutely have the potential to 10x. But because these companies are so volatile, need to be ready for 50% drawdowns in the blink of an eye and position size appropriately.. the other thing XAI just bought x for 3xb so eventually rddt could be an acquisition for a major player...I think it also has 2b in cash
no_free_lunch Posted April 1, 2025 Posted April 1, 2025 16 hours ago, This2ShallPass said: I have RDDT as part of my growth stock bucket of ~10% (well they performed themselves down to 7.5% with the recent selloff:)). Added more in the $110s. I think about these companies not in terms of traditional valuation metrics but the opportunity in front of them and how big can they become. Reddit is becoming the next "Google" in terms of popularity and indispensability. Their data is a treasure trove in the AI age and I see it as more icing on the cake. They absolutely have the potential to 10x. But because these companies are so volatile, need to be ready for 50% drawdowns in the blink of an eye and position size appropriately.. I hate reddit but i think you could be correct. Look at how massive FB has become its hard to predit the total potential market become because it is still being defined. Also we have seen from META how these can scale.
villainx Posted April 2, 2025 Posted April 2, 2025 1 hour ago, no_free_lunch said: I hate reddit but i think you could be correct. What don't you like about reddit?
no_free_lunch Posted April 2, 2025 Posted April 2, 2025 1 hour ago, villainx said: What don't you like about reddit? I like the UI and simplicity and general thought process but the politics.... omg. I am very right wing and the politics are far left of me. Dont be offended i cant help it. Nevertheless this IS interchangable with meta and that says a lot.
villainx Posted April 2, 2025 Posted April 2, 2025 (edited) 59 minutes ago, no_free_lunch said: I am very right wing and the politics are far left of me. I do wonder about their algo. I'm fairly far left but I don't notice political leanings one way or another. Then again, I try to avoid politics and current events as much as possible, so my sub feeds are japan travel tips, nyc food, thomas pynchon, aquariums, bluey, etc., but the feed sends so much am i overreacting, homework help, canned sardines, etc subs. Stuff that seems unrelated to subs I visit or joined. On the other hand, if your feed is annoying you, maybe the algo was designed to prevent echo chambering? Edit: I also like reddit's business, but haven't looked at valuation very closely other than it's probably very expensive. Edited April 2, 2025 by villainx
This2ShallPass Posted April 2, 2025 Posted April 2, 2025 7 hours ago, no_free_lunch said: Look at how massive FB has become its hard to predit the total potential market become because it is still being defined. Also we have seen from META how these can scale. Exactly. They have massive tailwinds. Their ad load is only 3% currently, they can always push on that as needed. Meta has shown once you reach a certain point, seems like ad load doesn't impact user counts. YT is so annoying with their ad load but no alternative (I quickly got premium).. 5 hours ago, no_free_lunch said: I am very right wing and the politics are far left of me. Interesting. Reddit is one of the least moderated spaces if I understand correctly. Maybe their user base skews younger / left??
John Hjorth Posted April 2, 2025 Posted April 2, 2025 Added this morning to FYNBK.CPH [Fynske Bank A/S, dividend reinvestment, my households dailyday 'ordinary' bank, a small Danish regional bank, a well and conservatively run bank, that trades at P/E ~9.3 and P/B at ~ 0.81]. I have owned it pretty much since it got listed in 2001. - - - o 0 o - - - Everytime the bank tries to get ideas of new fees or higher fees, I *shrug* and buy a little more - Works great .
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