What are you buying today?

[LC]

28 minutes ago, Ross812 said:

increased my DFIN position by 25%

How large of a position is this for you now? 
 

Any concerns over deal volume? Mgmt has mentioned for a few Qs now (if memory serves) that they are optimistic that deal volume is turning…but doesn’t seem to materialize. 
 

Also, are you looking at comps? Have they seen similar volume declines? I notice WK stock is also down from its highs…

[Ross812]

1 hour ago, LC said:

How large of a position is this for you now? 
 

Any concerns over deal volume? Mgmt has mentioned for a few Qs now (if memory serves) that they are optimistic that deal volume is turning…but doesn’t seem to materialize. 
 

Also, are you looking at comps? Have they seen similar volume declines? I notice WK stock is also down from its highs…

 

Its about 6% still. It was down 20% today and I added 25% so no real change.

 

The financial service revenue tied to mergers and IPOs is cyclical and I agree management has been rosy with projecting a turn for at least 18 months now. The stock was hammered for guiding 4% lower YOY revenues compared to Q1'24 and missed revenue by 10M in Q4 based on mergers and IPOs coming in lower than expected. WK and the whole sector listed company financial services is down. I pay attention to the SaaS compliance software making up 42% of revenue which is durable and growing at 11-13% YoY. In the long run, print is going to run-off to 0 and you are going to have a boring SaaS company serving a large percentage of publicly listed companies with a cyclical one off financial services support to mergers and IPOs giving a kicker when activity ticks up. My fear is the cutting of regulations impacts the SaaS side. So far, this doesn't look like its an issue, so I'm holding my nose and averaging up. 

 

 

[thowed]

Adds to ANET (after-hours), and FTLF.

[Onefoothurdles]

Sold half of my DFIN position last week only to buy it all back today

[Saluki]

Small nibbles to VG, XIPR and TalkMD. 

[Rainier]

9 hours ago, Saluki said:

Small nibbles to VG, XIPR and TalkMD. 

What is XIPR?

[shhughes1116]

2 hours ago, Rainier said:

What is XIPR?

Did you guys mean XIFR, the new name for the bombed out Nextera Energy Partners?  

[Saluki]

28 minutes ago, shhughes1116 said:

Did you guys mean XIFR, the new name for the bombed out Nextera Energy Partners?  

Yes, it was a typo. New ticker for Nextera energy partners. It dropped so much after the dividend was cut to zero that it looked good again. Probably take a year or two to see some price improvement but I can nibble along the way. 

[investor1]

EWCZ

[Rainier]

31 minutes ago, Saluki said:

Yes, it was a typo. New ticker for Nextera energy partners. It dropped so much after the dividend was cut to zero that it looked good again. Probably take a year or two to see some price improvement but I can nibble along the way. 

Thanks; sorry I should have picked up that it was NextEra.

 

And thanks for the analysis on it from a few weeks ago - I didn’t know anything about it prior to that. It’s interesting and I’ve been thinking about a small position.

 

I do wonder what stops them from just getting themselves back into the same situation again over the long-term (over leveraging with CEPFs). Maybe they’ll be more disciplined. But I guess the reality is that this is probably a 2-5 year story with constant re-assessing, not something to buy and put in a coffee can.

[Castanza]

JOE, FRFHF, RTO last few weeks

 

FRFHF - 30% Cost Basis up to ~900

JOE -  15%

MSFT - 13%

RTX -  11%

RTO - 6%

GOOGL - 5%

CNSFW - 5%

TOITF - 5%

 

cash = 10%

 

dropped MELI, DHLGY, CPRT, WFG, BRK.b, NTDOY

 

Trackers - SSD, CB, NTDOY (probably gonna regret trying to trade this)

 

Edited February 20, 2025 by Castanza

[Paarslaars]

All these traders selling a great long term company like Nintendo... You guys are crazy! 

[Gregmal]

Well how many of you guys have Nintendo weighted north of 20%? 
 

Like I said in another thread, if it’s a 5% position, then yea what’s the point in trimming? But at larger levels sometimes it’s just about managing the size. 

[cubsfan]

13 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

Well how many of you guys have Nintendo weighted north of 20%? 
 

Like I said in another thread, if it’s a 5% position, then yea what’s the point in trimming? But at larger levels sometimes it’s just about managing the size. 

 

Not me - but I got to love the confidence! 

 

At least enough to make it interesting for me.

[Paarslaars]

Yeah wasnt referring to you cutting 20%, you mentioned it was position sizing.

 

For me it is currently 24% of my personal portfolio, most of the position was bought in the 5000-7000¥ region. Though this equates to roughly 15% of the combined portfolios so I guess I am still undersized.

[Castanza]

18 minutes ago, Paarslaars said:

All these traders selling a great long term company like Nintendo... You guys are crazy! 

 

If it was in my brokerage sure, but I held it in my Roth so I have no problem flexing in and out of tax free positions (Brk.b as well). NTDOY, love it long term, but the stock has gone up ~30% in a month on news that isn't all that new imo. Great future and great business moves. 

 

@Gregmal After the runup this was getting close to 12% for me. If it wasn't in my Roth I likely wouldn't have trimmed. Debated trimming to just 5% but figured why not with how this thing swings around (famous last words). 

[Eng12345]

BAH

[Gregmal]

Haha yea I’m somewhat joking around but I think trading around the core to a certain degree is helpful. Ive had a ton of stuff that’s worth having a position in but too much capital tied up in stuff I already like, so perhaps its boredom driving me but I want to own a few more things and ringing the register a bit to do so accomplishes that. I would be pissed if Nintendo went back to $12-14 and I didn’t at least have a little to show for it. 

[chenisheng]

1 hour ago, Gregmal said:

Well how many of you guys have Nintendo weighted north of 20%? 
 

Like I said in another thread, if it’s a 5% position, then yea what’s the point in trimming? But at larger levels sometimes it’s just about managing the size. 

5% for me, but wish I went 10% when the CEO confirmed backwards compatibility 

[lnofeisone]

1 hour ago, Eng12345 said:

BAH

What's your thesis? BAH is a total mess internally. They are losing contracts and people are jumping ship. BAH is also pure gov play and don't have commercial contracts to offset (unlike ACN which lost $1.5B or so of contracts already). 

[brobro777]

1 hour ago, Gregmal said:

Haha yea I’m somewhat joking around but I think trading around the core to a certain degree is helpful. Ive had a ton of stuff that’s worth having a position in but too much capital tied up in stuff I already like, so perhaps its boredom driving me but I want to own a few more things and ringing the register a bit to do so accomplishes that. I would be pissed if Nintendo went back to $12-14 and I didn’t at least have a little to show for it. 

 

My gambler's crystal ball sez... there's a better than 66.7% chance that you can buy back at a significant enough discount to make it worth your while sometime during the next 2 years!

 

 

[giulio]

FIH, PRM

[sleepydragon]

1 hour ago, lnofeisone said:

What's your thesis? BAH is a total mess internally. They are losing contracts and people are jumping ship. BAH is also pure gov play and don't have commercial contracts to offset (unlike ACN which lost $1.5B or so of contracts already). 

How about CACI?

 

[lnofeisone]

1 hour ago, sleepydragon said:

How about CACI?

 

BAH has something like 35% of their portfolio in civilian, and a lot of them are getting hit very hard (cfpb is $0 now). CACI is a bit more insulated because of its technology play but some of their service contracts are looking weak (e.g., part of USCIS that handles inbound immigration, etc.). 

[Paarslaars]

6 hours ago, Castanza said:

dropped MELI

Unfortunate timing...