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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, villainx said:

 

There's signs turnaround is getting better?  

If you wait for things to be all clear then the real opportunity will likely be missed. I think the margin of safety is the best I can find with this high of quality business that is relatively simple. They have a good position in a good industry, and if I had to bet (which I am) I think it will likely be the same or better 5-10 years out. I can underwrite a few crappy years up front and still come out with a decent return with no multiple expansion. 
 

I'm trying to not over think it since that leads to sucking my thumb and doing nothing. Similar to what I see happening in the JOE thread (you can lump me in the over analyzing JOE group), I was hoping it get to a price where I wouldn’t have to over analyze things so much. 

Edited by coffeecaninvestor
Additional thoughts
Posted

Did any consumer staples report today? 
 

Or was it as simple as 500 billion in Nvda rolled over into PEP, KO, CLX, CL, JNJ etc. ? They are up like crazy today. 

Posted
2 minutes ago, Eldad said:

Did any consumer staples report today? 
 

Or was it as simple as 500 billion in Nvda rolled over into PEP, KO, CLX, CL, JNJ etc. ? They are up like crazy today. 

 

hedge funds covering boring funding shorts????

 

 

Posted
18 minutes ago, Eldad said:

Did any consumer staples report today? 
 

Or was it as simple as 500 billion in Nvda rolled over into PEP, KO, CLX, CL, JNJ etc. ? They are up like crazy today. 

 

The same amount of money bought NVDA today as sold it.  These rotations happen when the go-go names get spooked.  Berkshire stock usually ramps.  Sometimes it lasts.  Usually not

Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, gfp said:

 

The same amount of money bought NVDA today as sold it.  These rotations happen when the go-go names get spooked.  Berkshire stock usually ramps.  Sometimes it lasts.  Usually not

Right, just shorthand. 
 

Also, pretty much everyone other than big tech is a winner when LLM becomes a commodity product. Probably especially big pharma. 

Edited by Eldad
Posted
On 1/10/2025 at 10:19 AM, gfp said:

I have had a bunch of limit buy orders for Chubb down here around $250/share and the first one just executed at $253.07.  With all the LA wildfire headlines I wouldn't be surprised to see all of them executed.

 

 

image.thumb.png.8b4934b0416b84f16aa590c3ae3e1499.png

 

 

The low this day ended up being $252.16.  Chubb reports earnings after the close today

Posted
On 1/25/2025 at 8:45 AM, John Hjorth said:

 

Blake [ @Blake Hampton ],

 

Talking i.e. about P/BV per share for Apple makes absolutely no sense - the Apple capital allocation could easily run it into indefinitely [if aggressive approach applied], eventually turning it negative! [Please look at $PM].

 

I was still thinking about your reply, and I do see your point. I do think companies can run themselves in a way where their book value soon becomes a meaningless figure. However, I also believe that book value has a place in measuring a company's returns relative to its employed equity. It's one of the most important questions in investing: how much money does it take to make more money? It would be generally more accurate, I think, if you were to use tangible equity instead of book so as to exclude intangibles, but the premise is still the same. I also think that companies with negative P/Bs generally carry a lot of debt, which I of course never like.

Posted
12 hours ago, Blake Hampton said:

However, I also believe that book value has a place in measuring a company's returns relative to its employed equity.

You mean return on invested capital I think. 
 

Buying back stock at a multiple of book value will reduce the book value in itself. But ROIC for aapl is insane for example. 

Posted

Added to APR.W - a polish automobile part wholesaler. Had some shares in another account since 2022 and it looks like it’s a good time to add.

Growth has slowed and margin took a hit from minimum wage increases, so I am betting on normalization here.

 

There is some older VIC write up and also a letter from Asheville capital if interested in digging in.

Posted
7 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

Added to APR.W - a polish automobile part wholesaler. Had some shares in another account since 2022 and it looks like it’s a good time to add.

Growth has slowed and margin took a hit from minimum wage increases, so I am betting on normalization here.

 

There is some older VIC write up and also a letter from Asheville capital if interested in digging in.

Have you checked LKQ, it trades at the same multiples, but with higher FCF Yield?
To me it looks safer and with similar upside, whats your take on that? Do i miss something?

Posted
1 hour ago, Spekulatius said:

Added to APR.W - a polish automobile part wholesaler. Had some shares in another account since 2022 and it looks like it’s a good time to add.

Growth has slowed and margin took a hit from minimum wage increases, so I am betting on normalization here.

 

There is some older VIC write up and also a letter from Asheville capital if interested in digging in.

Which brokers are you using for Warsaw stock exchange?  Thank you.

Posted

LKQ has much less organic growth .

APR does not have much FCF as they reinvest in growth and consume a lot of working capital. They are not in the Autozone operating model yet

 

LKQ is a different business but looks pretty good on a first glance. I will check it out - thanks for sharing.

Posted
On 1/27/2025 at 3:01 PM, gfp said:

 

The same amount of money bought NVDA today as sold it.  These rotations happen when the go-go names get spooked.  Berkshire stock usually ramps.  Sometimes it lasts.  Usually not

Love this, nice reminder!

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