What are you buying today?

[Pelagic]

Added to BLDR

[Paarslaars]

More MSTR calls.

[Kizion]

7 minutes ago, Paarslaars said:

More MSTR calls.

didn’t you buy your last ones last week? You promised us! 

[Spekulatius]

5 hours ago, MadeItSquare said:

Italmobiliare maybe?

 

(Long-time lurker, first-time poster. Hi all!)

Yes, that’s it. One of my favorite Blogs ValueAndOpportunity posted about it and bought it a while ago. I did not buy at that time but checked the results and like what I saw.

 

Welcome to CoBF !

Edited Thursday at 01:35 AM by Spekulatius

[Paarslaars]

Yeah I know, couldn't help myself...  I'm so bad at sitting on cash, especially when I see irrational drops (-12%) on that silly FED announcement.

 

[Castanza]

JOE

[73 Reds]

40 minutes ago, Paarslaars said:

Yeah I know, couldn't help myself...  I'm so bad at sitting on cash, especially when I see irrational drops (-12%) on that silly FED announcement.

 

You mean money is not going back to be free, LOL?  Who'd have guessed?

[Gregmal]

Took the yuge news about quarter point rates cuts and dot plots as an opportunity to pick up some bourbon. 
 

‘Tis the season

 

 

[WayWardCloud]

Got some more AirBnB

 

Also finally decided to pay for a yearly subscription to tikr.com terminal, they're having a 20% off winter discount and they're my go to for quickly checking numbers on new ideas.

Edited Wednesday at 10:07 PM by WayWardCloud

[gfp]

2 hours ago, Gregmal said:

Took the yuge news about quarter point rates cuts and dot plots as an opportunity to pick up some bourbon. 
 

‘Tis the season

 

 

Nice.  All from the Sazerac Company if I remember correctly.

[Gregmal]

1 hour ago, gfp said:

Nice.  All from the Sazerac Company if I remember correctly.

Yea Sazerac/BTs late November releases. 

[gfp]

19 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

Yea Sazerac/BTs late November releases. 

Sazerac’s owner Goldring is probably New Orleans’ wealthiest resident.  Maybe second after Gayle Benson who owns the NFL and NBA franchises among other valuable businesses. Wealthiest in the state is probably the Raisin Cane’s guy in Baton

Rouge depending on what Canes would actually sell for. Sazerac is pretty impressive for a private family owned company. A lot of it is run from Kentucky these days 

Edited Thursday at 02:59 AM by gfp

[villainx]

Your bourbon pic made me think of Costco, which made me check if there were Costco near Joe territory, which made me wonder how soon might there be Costco one.

[Gregmal]

13 minutes ago, villainx said:

Your bourbon pic made me think of Costco, which made me check if there were Costco near Joe territory, which made me wonder how soon might there be Costco one.

I asked awhile ago. They insist on being near a major distribution route, which out there would be I10. 
 

I did however get a nod and a smirk when asking about the Costco of gas stations, which is Buc-ees. Think that would fit in nicely on 79 somewhere. 

[yesman182]

8 hours ago, Viking said:

have re-established small positions in:

- Canfor (CFP.TO)

If they are in such a bad spot, why is lumber still so expensive. Pre coved 4x8 sheet of osb  7/16th thick was sub $10 now it’s $16USD+. 2x4 was 2 usd, now they are 3.50.  Having those prices up +60% in 5 years doesn’t help builders sell more houses. 

[Red Lion]

I just added to CPT and JOE, and started a new position in MAA. All inside my tax deferred account. 

[Kizion]

Not sure it’s smart but sold Apple shares (short) and bought JOE and MSGE for the same amount. Exchange of overvalued stock for undervalued

[Lance]

SWBI

 

Thanks

Lance

[Junior R]

added pax

[Saluki]

1 hour ago, Lance said:

SWBI

 

Thanks

Lance

 

I picked up a few more 2027 $10 LEAPs.  The previous ones were $12.90 breakeven these are $12.50 breakeven.  

 

They are making money and doing buybacks, the capex for the HQ is over, so it seems like a decent bet.  

[Red Lion]

Upgraded my tracking position in CP to a starter position. Thank you @Dinar for bringing this back to my radar. I've been working on the valuation for the last 6 weeks or so, and am comfortable enough here to increase my exposure especially since I've been taking profits on some other positions lately and don't want to be all cash. 

[Junior R]

4 minutes ago, Red Lion said:

Upgraded my tracking position in CP to a starter position. Thank you @Dinar for bringing this back to my radar. I've been working on the valuation for the last 6 weeks or so, and am comfortable enough here to increase my exposure especially since I've been taking profits on some other positions lately and don't want to be all cash. 

Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd? What is the valuation you have come up with?

[Red Lion]

4 minutes ago, Junior R said:

Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd? What is the valuation you have come up with?

 

I don't have a specific valuation, it's more that I feel that this is a fair multiple for the combined CP/KSU business if they're able to execute on their synergies/revenue growth/margin improvement goals set out at the investor day. Management is projecting mid double digit EPS growth through 2028. I'm not backing up the truck yet, but I've sniffed around the railroads for years and always end up missing good entry points waiting for a better valuation. 

 

I also think that CP has been selling off on some idea that the Trump Trade is bad for trade with Mexico. I just don't buy that argument at all, I think onshoring will lead to more trade with Mexico and Canada than ever before. 

 

Right now I've been recycling some gains inside my tax deferred accounts and dabbling in a few different ideas as I get more comfortable with them. This is usually my strategy, but I'm trying to diversify away from my favorite subsector (the alternative asset managers) since I've seen what happens to them in choppy markets and it's not pretty. 

[ICUMD]

@Red Lion CP and CNR are excellent companies and valuation is very attractive currently. Id be adding if I had extra funds. Roughly 8% of my portfolio is allocated between the two. 

 

Only wish they paid better dividends, as I like cash flow.

[Dinar]

18 minutes ago, Junior R said:

Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd? What is the valuation you have come up with?

According to analysts' forecasts, which I think are too low, the stock is trading at a 6.9% free cash flow yield on 2028 numbers.  For a business that should be able to raise price ahead of inflation and grow volumes, that is way too low. 

Every year that the company hikes price at inflation + 0.5%, it's EBIT grows at inflation + 1%, and free cash flow by around inflation + 1.2-1.3%. 

Every time volumes go up by 1%, EBIT should grow by roughly 1.4-1.7%, given that incremental volumes come with very high EBIT margins, closer to 70%.  Every time EBIT grows by 1.4-1.7%, free cash flow to the equity grows by around 2%.

So if you assume that pricing = inflation + 0.5% per annum, and volume growth = 0.5% per annum, starting in 2029, then you have EBIT growing at inflation + 1.7%, and free cash flow at inflation + 2%+ per annum.

So assuming analysts' forecasts for 2028 are correct, and the company can grow volumes at 0.5% per annum, and pricing at inflation + 0.5% per annum, your forward rate of return should be inflation + 8.6% per annum.

In my opinion, the company will meaningfully outperform analysts' forecasts, and the stock is probably trading at a 9%-9.5%+ free cash flow yield to the equity on 2029 numbers, and will probably grow free cash flow after that at inflation + 2-3% per annum.  You are also getting potential environmental tailwinds for free, and upside from increase in highway taxes.