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Posted
On 12/6/2024 at 7:59 AM, longlake95 said:

Bought a 2.5% position in MATR over the last couple of weeks. 

There's a lot of noise in the MATR numbers. Do you have a good sense for their run-rate FCF?

Posted
2 hours ago, Malmqky said:

Bought some $T for myself and more for my mother.

 

Anyone know why it's down 4% today? Couldn't find a single thing...

 

I added to $T today. Not sure why it is falling today, infact MS upgraded the price target to $28 from $19. 

Posted
3 hours ago, Lance said:

Trimmed GBTC

 

Sold covered calls on COIN

 

Wrote puts on DBC

 

Added to DEA and OGN

 

Thanks

Lance

 

 

What's the thesis on DEA? DOGE fails? 

Posted
3 hours ago, Lance said:

Trimmed GBTC

 

Sold covered calls on COIN

 

Wrote puts on DBC

 

Added to DEA and OGN

 

Thanks

Lance

 

Haven’t seen OGN on here yet. I like it, assume adding because of VTAMA approval or seeing something else?

Posted
48 minutes ago, Blake Hampton said:

Just doubled my position in OXY, the stock is currently selling near its 52-week low

pretty cheap seems like this falls more then the other energy plays due the debt levels but is undervalued and should do good with Trump win

Posted
6 minutes ago, Junior R said:

pretty cheap seems like this falls more then the other energy plays due the debt levels but is undervalued and should do good with Trump win


I think people hate oil without realizing that is the most important substance outside of oxygen and water. Climate change is bad and needs to be addressed, but oil is far too important to go away anytime soon.

Posted
1 hour ago, Blake Hampton said:

Just doubled my position in OXY, the stock is currently selling near its 52-week low

Yeah, like the idea, many popular buyers like buffet, li lu etc

Posted (edited)
On 12/16/2024 at 2:50 PM, Castanza said:

 

What's the thesis on DEA? DOGE fails? 

Not so much that DOGE fails, but that I think the impact of DOGE on DEA is somewhat overblown.  Bureaucracy is pretty resilient.

 

Thanks

Lance  

Edited by Lance
Posted
On 12/16/2024 at 3:09 PM, Hsmpanl said:

Haven’t seen OGN on here yet. I like it, assume adding because of VTAMA approval or seeing something else?

The VTAMA approval is good, but buying this more based on valuation/RFK concerns, etc.

 

Thanks

Lance

Posted

Wrote puts on COIN.

 

Small add to JOE and very small add to LB (which probably goes lower after the lock-up expiration on 12/25).

 

Thanks

Lance

Posted
16 minutes ago, Lance said:

The VTAMA approval is good, but buying this more based on valuation/RFK concerns, etc.

 

Thanks

Lance

I looked at OGN as I tend to do with all spinoffs but that turned me off was that invested  heavily into Women’s health , which is a hard business to make money in.

The spinoff also came with a boatload of debt.

Posted
2 hours ago, Lance said:

very small add to LB (which probably goes lower after the lock-up expiration on 12/25).

 

 

Yes, agree, but also couldn't help myself.

Posted (edited)

I have re-established small positions in:

- Canfor (CFP.TO)

- Saputo (SAP.TO)

 

Is this the worst bear market for lumber ever? Worse situation than covid? Stocks are cheaper today than they were in Covid. Higher interest rates? Gasoline on this dumpster fire. Probably early. But lumber is getting interesting again.

 

Saputo is hitting 52 week lows. It is trading where it was trading back in 2013. Canada is their cash cow and Trump will be coming after Canada's heavily protected dairy market, likely soon (perhaps that is why it has been selling off recently). So this one could go lower. But the turnaround they have been trying to execute for the past three years (yes, it has taken that long) looks like it is coming to a close (yes, we have heard this before). Deleveraging is complete (balance sheet has been fixed). We could see a rebound in profitability of US market in the coming year (as they shift production from old plants - which will be closed - to new plants). At C$25.40/share, the risk/reward now looks skewed to the upside. If the new management team is any good (Lino Jr recently stepped down from CEO role), this could be a strong performer in the coming years.     

Edited by Viking

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