longlake95 Posted September 22, 2022 Posted September 22, 2022 8 minutes ago, ourkid8 said: Ditto, it's too cheap to ignore. seems like a tightly wound spring, with yields backing up. Solid CR's. Dry powder. 0.8X book... and Prem making better investments. Looks like a 1 ft hurdle. I still think the market penalizes Prem for his past mistakes.... my thesis is that putting 35B to work at 4% might change people's minds...
ourkid8 Posted September 22, 2022 Posted September 22, 2022 22 minutes ago, longlake95 said: seems like a tightly wound spring, with yields backing up. Solid CR's. Dry powder. 0.8X book... and Prem making better investments. Looks like a 1 ft hurdle. I still think the market penalizes Prem for his past mistakes.... my thesis is that putting 35B to work at 4% might change people's minds... Exactly, pretty straight forward.
Spekulatius Posted September 23, 2022 Posted September 23, 2022 Bought a bit of TSM pre market today. Have a buy order for FFH around $450
Spekulatius Posted September 23, 2022 Posted September 23, 2022 15 minutes ago, Dinar said: Ashtead PLC - owner of Sunbelt rentals. Do you feel it's attractive? Their debt is surging. It's a great business as long as housing/construction hums along nicely, but not so much if it slows down. I don't know how much is priced in and it sure looks cheap. One of the many above average cyclical business that looks fairly cheap based on normalized earnings ( if this is knowable).
Dinar Posted September 23, 2022 Posted September 23, 2022 43 minutes ago, Spekulatius said: Do you feel it's attractive? Their debt is surging. It's a great business as long as housing/construction hums along nicely, but not so much if it slows down. I don't know how much is priced in and it sure looks cheap. One of the many above average cyclical business that looks fairly cheap based on normalized earnings ( if this is knowable). Yes, I think that it is quite cheap. Their debt is up as the company has been aggressively growing fleet. Recessions are generally a big negative for them but here is why I think it will be less of an issue: a) Smaller competitors have been going out of business since they cannot get equipment/skilled labor b) There are significant economies of scale - if you double the number of locations, you do not need to double the number of units or skilled mechanics c) The return of manufacturing to America, the semiconductor plant building boom in the US, the Biden infrastructure plan all bode very well for demand. d) I do not think that home construction will decline that much, since we still need homes to be built. What's priced in? The stock is selling at USD 42 per share, while it should earn $3.50-$3.70 this fiscal year (ends 04/30/2023.) You have to reduce EPS by 4% to account for gains of sale of equipment so call it $3.50 in EPS. Assuming a real discount rate = 6% (so nominal = inflation + 6%), this assumes 30% drop in profitability and zero growth on a going forward basis in real terms. The company claimed that could (in real terms) more than double and almost triple in size in one of their presentations. Given returns on marginal capital, this growth opportunity, that you get for free, is quite valuable.
Spekulatius Posted September 23, 2022 Posted September 23, 2022 @Dinar thank you for the well written thesis summary. I think I have seen this written up before in one of the hedge fund letter, maybe Keith Smith / Bonhoeffer @Packer16 ?
Xerxes Posted September 23, 2022 Posted September 23, 2022 I have the US Dollars that came out of David Sokol's privatization attempt of Atlas ready for re-deployment. I have GOOG, AMZN, BRK, RTX, DIS, SBUX -- all current holdings as potential "add on targets", but the more the market goes down, the more difficult it is for me to chose which ones to add. Some of these aerospace names do not follow the normal business cycle, others like Starbucks are more cyclical but even then they probably benefit from so called "lipstick effect" I also have Transdigm and Lockheed as new additions, but not really a price target. The higher rate seem to bite Transdigm stock price faster it seems.
gfp Posted September 23, 2022 Posted September 23, 2022 Bear market Friday! Buying EQT, longer dated BRK in the money calls, CLF, Covering some SPY short, Fairfax at $614cad. Looks like a good day to pick up some of Gregmal's EPSN as well
Spekulatius Posted September 23, 2022 Posted September 23, 2022 1 hour ago, Spekulatius said: Bought a bit of TSM pre market today. Have a buy order for FFH around $450 Life comes at you fast - had a fill for some FRFHF at $451. Also got some fills for $BTI at a bit more than $37.
Dinar Posted September 23, 2022 Posted September 23, 2022 10 minutes ago, Spekulatius said: Life comes at you fast - had a fill for some FRFHF at $451. Also got some fills for $BTI at a bit more than $37. Spek, why do you like BTI? I used to own it, sold post results in February, and every time I look at it, I cannot get there, particularly vs PM & SWMA
Gregmal Posted September 23, 2022 Posted September 23, 2022 2000 more CKX at market, with another 2000 on the bid at 10.5 if anyone wants to play ball.
Spekulatius Posted September 23, 2022 Posted September 23, 2022 (edited) 30 minutes ago, Dinar said: Spek, why do you like BTI? I used to own it, sold post results in February, and every time I look at it, I cannot get there, particularly vs PM & SWMA PM is better run, but it's a matter of price. I bought in the low thirties, sold north of $46 (almost top ticked it) and now feel I should get in. It's a dividend stock and I don't try to overthink it. If PM goes sub sub 90's, I am in too. I continue to hold SWMA (havn't sold a share) but unsure what happens next. Edited September 23, 2022 by Spekulatius
lnofeisone Posted September 23, 2022 Posted September 23, 2022 Adding across the board with biggest VET, SNOW, GOOGL, JOE, HQI, CASH.
Dinar Posted September 23, 2022 Posted September 23, 2022 Bought Veris Residential (VRE), thank you Gregmal for the suggestion.
Dinar Posted September 23, 2022 Posted September 23, 2022 55 minutes ago, Spekulatius said: PM is better run, but it's a matter of price. I bought in the low thirties, sold north of $46 (almost top ticked it) and now feel I should get in. It's a dividend stock and I don't try to overthink it. If PM goes sub sub 90's, I am in too. I continue to hold SWMA (havn't sold a share) but unsure what happens next. I think if you adjust for growth, PM is much cheaper than BTI. BTI I think is losing volumes at 3% per annum, while PM is growing at 2%+. In addition, one gets a free option on IQOOS in the US.
DooDiligence Posted September 23, 2022 Posted September 23, 2022 More BRK.B & GOOGL for the 2034 bucket. 1
Parsad Posted September 24, 2022 Posted September 24, 2022 5 hours ago, Gregmal said: Yankees Red Sox tickets. Why not See Judge break Ruth's record? Will it be tonight? Cheers!
yesman182 Posted September 24, 2022 Posted September 24, 2022 10 hours ago, Gregmal said: Added some FFH, Disney and LPX @Gregmal What is your take on LPX. Are you long home builders and think OSB is a way to play that? Or do you like the siding business? I own LPX for the siding business. LPX has been supply constrained for years. I think the siding business will take market share from Hardie Plank and Vinyl.
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