What are you buying today?

[Gregmal]

On 9/20/2022 at 1:58 PM, Gregmal said:

Took some of these off and split the proceeds into Fairfax and some Novembers.

Sold some more of the Octobers and added to MSGS

[ourkid8]

More BAM

[Dinar]

Bought MSFT yesterday into the close at $239-$240.

[longlake95]

added a little FFH

[Cod Liver Oil]

A massive brown bear stood outside my window yesterday displaying his furry junk. Then he climbed a 50 foot oak and ate the acorns at the top. I may be confusing the message but I took that as a sign to buy more hard assets:  PCYO and Itafos today.

[longlake95]

4 minutes ago, Cod Liver Oil said:

A massive brown bear stood outside my window yesterday displaying his furry junk. Then he climbed a 50 foot oak and ate the acorns at the top. I may be confusing the message but I took that as a sign to buy more hard assets:  PCYO and Itafos today.

 

LMFAO 

Edited September 22, 2022 by longlake95

[Williams406]

11 minutes ago, Cod Liver Oil said:

A massive brown bear stood outside my window yesterday displaying his furry junk. Then he climbed a 50 foot oak and ate the acorns at the top. I may be confusing the message but I took that as a sign to buy more hard assets:  PCYO and Itafos today.

Excellent! Was it Schiff or Grantham?

[Gregmal]

8 minutes ago, longlake95 said:

 

LMFAO 

I talk to this man pretty regularly and he s one of the under appreciated gems of COBF. Should post more.

[KPO]

TEN

[longlake95]

Thanks. Okay maybe I will post a little more.  Not sure I can add too much to the big brains around here. 

Edited September 22, 2022 by longlake95

[CorpRaider]

SLG.  If they cut the divvy I'm couch surfing at Chanos'.

Edited September 23, 2022 by CorpRaider

[ourkid8]

2 hours ago, longlake95 said:

added a little FFH

Ditto, it's too cheap to ignore.  

[aws]

Berkshire and MKL

[LearningMachine]

CMCSA

[longlake95]

8 minutes ago, ourkid8 said:

Ditto, it's too cheap to ignore.  

seems like a tightly wound spring, with yields backing up. Solid CR's. Dry powder. 0.8X book... and Prem making better investments. Looks like a 1 ft hurdle. I still think the market penalizes Prem for his past mistakes.... my thesis is that putting 35B to work at 4% might change people's minds... 

[ourkid8]

22 minutes ago, longlake95 said:

seems like a tightly wound spring, with yields backing up. Solid CR's. Dry powder. 0.8X book... and Prem making better investments. Looks like a 1 ft hurdle. I still think the market penalizes Prem for his past mistakes.... my thesis is that putting 35B to work at 4% might change people's minds... 

Exactly, pretty straight forward.  

[Spekulatius]

Bought a bit of TSM pre market today. Have a buy order for FFH around $450

[Dinar]

Ashtead PLC - owner of Sunbelt rentals.  

[Spekulatius]

15 minutes ago, Dinar said:

Ashtead PLC - owner of Sunbelt rentals.  

Do you feel it's attractive? Their debt is surging. It's a great business as long as housing/construction hums along nicely, but not so much if it slows down. I don't know how much is priced in and it sure looks cheap. One of the many above average cyclical business that looks fairly cheap based on normalized earnings ( if this is knowable).

[Dinar]

43 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

Do you feel it's attractive? Their debt is surging. It's a great business as long as housing/construction hums along nicely, but not so much if it slows down. I don't know how much is priced in and it sure looks cheap. One of the many above average cyclical business that looks fairly cheap based on normalized earnings ( if this is knowable).

Yes, I think that it is quite cheap.  Their debt is up as the company has been aggressively growing fleet.  Recessions are generally a big negative for them but here is why I think it will be less of an issue:

a) Smaller competitors have been going out of business since they cannot get equipment/skilled labor

b) There are significant economies of scale - if you double the number of locations, you do not need to double the number of units or skilled mechanics

c) The return of manufacturing to America, the semiconductor plant building boom in the US, the Biden infrastructure plan all bode very well for demand.   

d) I do not think that home construction will decline that much, since we still need homes to be built.  

What's priced in?  The stock is selling at USD 42 per share, while it should earn $3.50-$3.70 this fiscal year (ends 04/30/2023.)  You have to reduce EPS by 4% to account for gains of sale of equipment so call it $3.50 in EPS.  Assuming a real discount rate = 6% (so nominal = inflation + 6%), this assumes 30% drop in profitability and zero growth on a going forward basis in real terms.  The company claimed that could (in real terms) more than double and almost triple in size in one of their presentations.  Given returns on marginal capital, this growth opportunity, that you get for free, is quite valuable.

[Spekulatius]

@Dinar thank you for the well written thesis summary. I think I have seen this written up before in one of the hedge fund letter, maybe Keith Smith / Bonhoeffer @Packer16 ?

[Xerxes]

I have the US Dollars that came out of David Sokol's privatization attempt of Atlas ready for re-deployment.

 

I have GOOG, AMZN, BRK, RTX, DIS, SBUX -- all current holdings as potential "add on targets", but the more the market goes down, the more difficult it is for me to chose which ones to add. Some of these aerospace names do not follow the normal business cycle, others like Starbucks are more cyclical but even then they probably benefit from so called "lipstick effect"

 

I also have Transdigm and Lockheed as new additions, but not really a price target. The higher rate seem to bite Transdigm stock price faster it seems.

[Gregmal]

Added some FFH, Disney and LPX

[gfp]

Bear market Friday!  Buying EQT, longer dated BRK in the money calls, CLF, Covering some SPY short, Fairfax at $614cad.

 

Looks like a good day to pick up some of Gregmal's EPSN as well

[Spekulatius]

1 hour ago, Spekulatius said:

Bought a bit of TSM pre market today. Have a buy order for FFH around $450

Life comes at you fast - had a fill for some FRFHF at $451. Also got some fills for $BTI at a bit more than $37.