investor1 Posted September 13, 2022 Share Posted September 13, 2022 SAX.DE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
longlake95 Posted September 13, 2022 Share Posted September 13, 2022 JOE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gary17 Posted September 13, 2022 Share Posted September 13, 2022 looking at fairfax two year corporate bond lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fareastwarriors Posted September 13, 2022 Share Posted September 13, 2022 (edited) average down on $META... getting really painful. Edited September 13, 2022 by fareastwarriors Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted September 14, 2022 Share Posted September 14, 2022 8 minutes ago, fareastwarriors said: average down on $META... getting really painful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jfan Posted September 14, 2022 Share Posted September 14, 2022 38 minutes ago, fareastwarriors said: average down on $META... getting really painful. I joined you in this toilet flushing moment. Not that I'm fantastic at pinpointing intrinsic value. But it seems to me the market has already priced in a digital ad market share decline from mid 20% to mid teens, and a terminal value PE multiple compression to 16 over the next decade. I just see WhatsApp monetization and Reality Labs as a free option at these market values. I guess the biggest risk is an exponential deterioration of social networks when people churn off to competitors. What were the reasons for MySpace's demise? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IceCreamMan Posted September 14, 2022 Share Posted September 14, 2022 1 hour ago, jfan said: What were the reasons for MySpace's demise? Facebook? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jfan Posted September 14, 2022 Share Posted September 14, 2022 17 minutes ago, IceCreamMan said: Facebook? Sorry could be a bit clearer. Just trying to draw historical lessons from the demise of MySpace and to see if there are parallels with the Meta story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crs223 Posted September 14, 2022 Share Posted September 14, 2022 23 minutes ago, jfan said: Sorry could be a bit clearer. Just trying to draw historical lessons from the demise of MySpace and to see if there are parallels with the Meta story. He’s saying “facebook was the reason for myspace’s demise”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LC Posted September 14, 2022 Share Posted September 14, 2022 facebook:myspace tiktok:instagram ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted September 14, 2022 Share Posted September 14, 2022 6 hours ago, LC said: facebook:myspace tiktok:instagram ? Tiktok really is not a replacement for FB or Instagram. It’s not a social interaction platform. Most users just passively watch short form video there, which is different than interacting with other users or uploading your own fotos etc. In my opinion, Tiktok is more a competitor for YouTube than FB and IG. That said, they all compete for eyeballs and attention. With Zuck’s Metaverse Adventure, there is a real risk than Meta becomes a rapidly melting icecube. For that reason, I would be reluctant to average down to no end. When network effects start to unwind, the underlying value can become extremely squishy. I own some shares, but I am reluctant to add more. I need to see some tangible progress on the product development from Meta here to add more to this bet. I decided a while ago to switch ~80% of my Meta allocation to GOOGL. I would much rather add to GOOGL than to Meta at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DooDiligence Posted September 14, 2022 Share Posted September 14, 2022 41 minutes ago, Spekulatius said: I would much rather add to GOOGL than to Meta at this point. I just Googled this and the internet says you are correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted September 14, 2022 Share Posted September 14, 2022 (edited) 43 minutes ago, DooDiligence said: I just Googled this and the internet says you are correct. This feel like a circularity or singularity has been reached. On a side note, when you asked google the question" Should I buy XX stock?", you get some interesting answers and links to look at. I actually started doing this as part of my research process. Same with $XX (XX= ticker symbol) in twitter. Edited September 14, 2022 by Spekulatius Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted September 14, 2022 Share Posted September 14, 2022 Small add to Uber. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benderok Posted September 14, 2022 Share Posted September 14, 2022 Added to GOOGL today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValueMaven Posted September 15, 2022 Share Posted September 15, 2022 On 9/13/2022 at 6:19 PM, Spekulatius said: One of the shittiest insurance companies I am aware of (from a shareholders perspective). Hasn’t gone anywhere for 2 decades. I owned shares around 2001 or so and made out OK riding the shares up a bit, but they are pretty much back to the same levels. I liked them as a customer when I lived in CA, lowest rates for the combo of homeowners and car insurance by a country mile for me. What is your thesis? I like the dividend, the stock is massively oversold, and you have a possible catalyst in the sale of the business once the old-man is no longer around. I disagree its a bad insurance company ... look at the combined ratio overtime vs. peers. Costs are very low vs. other auto-insurance companies and they benefit from the low-duration fixed income portfolio which after 10+ of earning nothing is finally generating some income. Sure they dont buyback stock - but they basically pay everything out to shareholders. Hardly any leverage as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yesman182 Posted September 15, 2022 Share Posted September 15, 2022 58 minutes ago, ValueMaven said: I like the dividend, the stock is massively oversold, and you have a possible catalyst in the sale of the business once the old-man is no longer around. I disagree its a bad insurance company ... look at the combined ratio overtime vs. peers. Costs are very low vs. other auto-insurance companies and they benefit from the low-duration fixed income portfolio which after 10+ of earning nothing is finally generating some income. Sure they dont buyback stock - but they basically pay everything out to shareholders. Hardly any leverage as well Didn't they just cut their dividend in half? Didn't California also not allow price increases for another year or so? I am happy to pass on MCY until it is well below book. I will be interested to see what happens when the old man is no longer at the helm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
n.r98 Posted September 15, 2022 Share Posted September 15, 2022 1 hour ago, ValueMaven said: I like the dividend, the stock is massively oversold, and you have a possible catalyst in the sale of the business once the old-man is no longer around. I disagree its a bad insurance company ... look at the combined ratio overtime vs. peers. Costs are very low vs. other auto-insurance companies and they benefit from the low-duration fixed income portfolio which after 10+ of earning nothing is finally generating some income. Sure they dont buyback stock - but they basically pay everything out to shareholders. Hardly any leverage as well Speaking about insurance companies - maybe $ARGO might interest you, still looking into it. Right off the bat, already trading at 0.6 BV despite making a division sale at 0.81 BV. Business has been trimming international divisions and current core US insurance biz has a combined ratio <100 whilst previously, blended combined ratio in the 120s. Activists just got on BoD and really pushing for a sale here it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted September 15, 2022 Share Posted September 15, 2022 2 hours ago, ValueMaven said: I like the dividend, the stock is massively oversold, and you have a possible catalyst in the sale of the business once the old-man is no longer around. I disagree its a bad insurance company ... look at the combined ratio overtime vs. peers. Costs are very low vs. other auto-insurance companies and they benefit from the low-duration fixed income portfolio which after 10+ of earning nothing is finally generating some income. Sure they dont buyback stock - but they basically pay everything out to shareholders. Hardly any leverage as well Thanks for your perspective. I am not convinced that MCY is a good value. The way I see it, they operate mostly at a combined ratio of 100% , so the result comes from the investment return. I think they operate around 2x premium /equity and their (mostly bond) investment are a bit higher than premiums so with this short duration portfolio, the returns on equity have been mostly below 10%. They did better than that in 2020, but that’s because accident frequency was way down due to less driving. I think for a stock that earns less than 10% on equity (and in fact barely 8% over the years) valuation at book value is about fair. So for me MCY doesn’t look all that cheap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DooDiligence Posted September 15, 2022 Share Posted September 15, 2022 15 hours ago, Spekulatius said: This feel like a circularity or singularity has been reached. On a side note, when you asked google the question" Should I buy XX stock?", you get some interesting answers and links to look at. I actually started doing this as part of my research process. Same with $XX (XX= ticker symbol) in twitter. Not sure how accurate this visualization is but yeah, more Google. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GordonGekko69 Posted September 15, 2022 Share Posted September 15, 2022 (edited) more PAH3, sold puts on PAH3 @ 64 (9/16) @ 67 (9/16) and @ 62 (10/21), little add to PCYO and sold Puts on WBD @ 10.5 (10/28) Edited September 15, 2022 by GordonGekko69 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted September 15, 2022 Share Posted September 15, 2022 Bought a starter in WRK. I think it's cheap and less cyclical than Mr Market thinks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted September 15, 2022 Share Posted September 15, 2022 Bought some more XLE. We now have the Biden put at $80 a barrel. Joe thinks he's gonna keep the price from crashing and replenish the reserves. Little does he know he's already accomplished that, in spades. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted September 15, 2022 Share Posted September 15, 2022 Notha 20% add to JOE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fareastwarriors Posted September 15, 2022 Share Posted September 15, 2022 (edited) 47 minutes ago, Gregmal said: Notha 20% add to JOE + $joe one pack here Edited September 15, 2022 by fareastwarriors Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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