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Posted

Small position in HCDI preferred. Pretty interesting situation. Bit of a dumpster dive but getting paid for it and the announcement today showing a belief in the common means I'm a little more positive on the preferred. 

Posted
21 hours ago, fareastwarriors said:

added some CLPR this morning before the big pop. NYC is looking bright(er).

 

 

 

You timed this one well

Posted (edited)

shorted some PTON immediately AH at 81 and 74. Having just had a front row seat with Z, I think I can guess what the news digestion is going to look like LOL.

 

EDIT: grabbed a bit of ATUS AH at 18 as well. Both trades looking for the momo to continue for a good bit. Probably into next week. 

Edited by Gregmal
Posted
24 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

shorted some PTON immediately AH at 81 and 74. Having just had a front row seat with Z, I think I can guess what the news digestion is going to look like LOL.

 

lol

Posted
2 hours ago, Gregmal said:

shorted some PTON immediately AH at 81 and 74. Having just had a front row seat with Z, I think I can guess what the news digestion is going to look like LOL.

 

EDIT: grabbed a bit of ATUS AH at 18 as well. Both trades looking for the momo to continue for a good bit. Probably into next week. 

 

Very nice Greg! I made a little money writing calls on PTON, but I should have been buying puts. I kept thinking what do you see in garage sales? Exercise bikes. I should have gone in bigger.

Posted
3 hours ago, Gregmal said:

shorted some PTON immediately AH at 81 and 74. Having just had a front row seat with Z, I think I can guess what the news digestion is going to look like LOL.

 

EDIT: grabbed a bit of ATUS AH at 18 as well. Both trades looking for the momo to continue for a good bit. Probably into next week. 

 

How did you short them after hours? what broker offers this? 

Posted
39 minutes ago, benchmark said:

 

How did you short them after hours? what broker offers this? 

Most should allow AH trading. Sometimes you might have to sign additional risk waivers/disclosures but for the most part I think its relatively easy to get permissions for. 

Posted
1 hour ago, boilermaker75 said:

 

Very nice Greg! I made a little money writing calls on PTON, but I should have been buying puts. I kept thinking what do you see in garage sales? Exercise bikes. I should have gone in bigger.

Eh it was a tricky trade though. Even the puts I would roll, they were just very expensive and unless you timed it right it was hard to really make the type of money you'd expect on the options. I still have the Jan $50 puts so we'll see where those open. Net/net outright shorting was basically a wash up until today because it whipped around every time some two bit hedge would try to pump it. But this is why you stalk stocks and just kind of wait for your setups. I thought Q2 was a mess and they were dishonest about a bunch of things but the desperate buyers of this still felt compelled to pay 105-110 the following day and even inexplicably bid this back up to near 120 on an announcement that they were making clothes LOL. The excuses for Q2 and the price cuts were so ridiculous that a Q3 miss(or worse guidance cut) would be devastating. So I felt Q3 would basically be make or break and had three browsers open all with limit orders 85, 80, 75, 72.5 all locked and loaded and at the first sign of movement hit 85/80. Didnt even read the release LOL. Didnt get filled at 85 but got 81. You had maybe 30 seconds to smash 80s. Read the release to confirm and smashed 75/70. 

 

This followed Z to an absolute T in term of post release trading. Constant bleed into the 8 pm close. Tomorrow should be fun as well. 

Posted

I tried scalping the PTON earnings today. I was not too hot, I was very sloppy after making money elsewhere today. 😞

I'm sitting at a loss after buying 1,000 shares at $68. I'm not in the habit of setting stops because I've regretted the times I've gotten stopped out on volatility.  

Pulled up the earnings and it does look like turd to my eyes. I'll try to get out premarket or early in tomorrows session. 

 

 

 

Posted
18 hours ago, Gregmal said:

Eh it was a tricky trade though. Even the puts I would roll, they were just very expensive and unless you timed it right it was hard to really make the type of money you'd expect on the options. I still have the Jan $50 puts so we'll see where those open. Net/net outright shorting was basically a wash up until today because it whipped around every time some two bit hedge would try to pump it. But this is why you stalk stocks and just kind of wait for your setups. I thought Q2 was a mess and they were dishonest about a bunch of things but the desperate buyers of this still felt compelled to pay 105-110 the following day and even inexplicably bid this back up to near 120 on an announcement that they were making clothes LOL. The excuses for Q2 and the price cuts were so ridiculous that a Q3 miss(or worse guidance cut) would be devastating. So I felt Q3 would basically be make or break and had three browsers open all with limit orders 85, 80, 75, 72.5 all locked and loaded and at the first sign of movement hit 85/80. Didnt even read the release LOL. Didnt get filled at 85 but got 81. You had maybe 30 seconds to smash 80s. Read the release to confirm and smashed 75/70. 

 

This followed Z to an absolute T in term of post release trading. Constant bleed into the 8 pm close. Tomorrow should be fun as well. 

 

Nice trade, are you going to let this one ride, or cover? 

Posted

^The short Ill cover next week. Let it settle over the weekend. Puts I took 4x my basis off and will see how the rest fare over the following month, with a short leash of course since still OTM. 

Posted

All in the last week: Bought more ABG (took from aprox 5 to 12,5 pct. position since announcement of Larry Miller deal). Bought new stakes in CNSL, DISCK and APTS (APTS smaller one at 3 pct.)

Posted
On 10/31/2021 at 5:28 PM, Gregmal said:

You guys are entering the trade for the wrong reasons then. @boilermaker75 not surprisingly has it down 100% right.
 

I don’t really give a shit whether i own the stock or not, I’m really just selling insurance to folks on stuff that I can deal with owning at that price/valuation. If MO at 41.30 cost does me in, so be it. But I’d wager(as I am) that I either make money on the put sale or can make money from that basis. I don’t care if it gets bought for $50000 a share tomorrow. If it goes to $25 I should’ve been more selective obviously in hindsite, but that’s always a risk in the market anyway. 
 

People love to complicate the heck out of things which is what I think is going on here. Every stock can go up or down a lot. That’s not a risk specific to selling puts. 

 

I do this consistently and look at it exactly the same way as you and @boilermaker75 ... selling insurance. I'll usually do it with a company that I either already own and am looking to add to, or one that I'm looking to start a new position in but maybe some unrelated news, market sentiment or whatever has been lifting the general market up as a whole. Rather than wait on the sidelines for a pull back that may or may not come anytime soon, I sell insurance on the company and collect the premiums, which alone can actually create a pretty good return.

 

One thing I'll add is that if there is a modest decline, rather than be put the shares, I'll usually just roll the put out and collect the premium again. Now if there's a large decline where there's not enough premium to make it worth doing again, I'll let it be exercised and most likely be buying even more shares in addition as that's really the ideal opportunity I was waiting for to begin with

Posted (edited)
22 hours ago, DJS said:

 

I do this consistently and look at it exactly the same way as you and @boilermaker75 ... selling insurance. I'll usually do it with a company that I either already own and am looking to add to, or one that I'm looking to start a new position in but maybe some unrelated news, market sentiment or whatever has been lifting the general market up as a whole. Rather than wait on the sidelines for a pull back that may or may not come anytime soon, I sell insurance on the company and collect the premiums, which alone can actually create a pretty good return.

 

One thing I'll add is that if there is a modest decline, rather than be put the shares, I'll usually just roll the put out and collect the premium again. Now if there's a large decline where there's not enough premium to make it worth doing again, I'll let it be exercised and most likely be buying even more shares in addition as that's really the ideal opportunity I was waiting for to begin with

 

Excellent first post DJS 😉

 

Edit: and welcome to CoBF

 

Exactly what I do now. Try to roll out the puts if I can pick up enough premium, unless I am doing it to pick up the shares.

Edited by boilermaker75
Posted (edited)

@Spekulatius what is your thesis on Nextdoor? I agree it could be huge, but don't think I've seen it posted on the forums here yet. What are your thoughts on valuation too? Would be curious to hear your take. Thanks!

Edited by valueventures
Posted
4 hours ago, boilermaker75 said:

 

Excellent first post DJS 😉

 

Edit: and welcome to CoBF

 

Exactly what I do now. Try to roll out the puts if I can pick up enough premium, unless I am doing it to pick up the shares.

 

when you roll out the puts, don't you lose money on your current puts already? 

Posted (edited)
9 hours ago, benchmark said:

 

when you roll out the puts, don't you lose money on your current puts already? 

 

Yes you buy back your current puts at a loss, or just a reduction in your profit, but sell the further out expiration puts at a greater premium. 

 

Let's say the strike is $50 and the stock is around $49.5 at closing. You can buy pack the put at about $0.50 and sell the put expiring the next week for much more than $.50, maybe  > $1.

 

Or if you had sold the original put for $1.50, you just might want to close the position at a $1 profit.

Edited by boilermaker75
Posted (edited)
12 hours ago, valueventures said:

@Spekulatius what is your thesis on Nextdoor? I agree it could be huge, but don't think I've seen it posted on the forums here yet. What are your thoughts on valuation too? Would be curious to hear your take. Thanks!

What do I know - I like the business and the management. Apparently some traders got into this and maybe like the new ticker symbol $KIND ?

 

It's 10 AM and the stock is already halted 3 times:

image.thumb.png.2f60e70216c2ea369de4489f3e36730f.png

 

Valuation is a $3.6B EV for a ~$200M run rate revenue business growing 66% YoY.

Edited by Spekulatius
Posted
On 11/5/2021 at 2:33 PM, Gregmal said:

^The short Ill cover next week. Let it settle over the weekend. Puts I took 4x my basis off and will see how the rest fare over the following month, with a short leash of course since still OTM. 

Closed out the PTON trade. Got the expected follow through and the options are now basically at the money so time to call it a day. 

Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Gregmal said:

Closed out the PTON trade. Got the expected follow through and the options are now basically at the money so time to call it a day. 


Congratulations on a great trade. Was researching PTON and saw it was rated as #1 brand. Above Apple, NetfIix, Costco, Chick-Fil-A, etc. I’m tempted to go long here. 
 

https://www.comparably.com/brands
 

 

Edited by bathtime

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