Gregmal Posted March 5, 2021 Posted March 5, 2021 PTON - starting a position here in mid 90s after the steep fall. $4b fw revenue run rate, 40% margin profile, $28b MCap so not as bad a multiple now. Demand >> Supply, able to sell everything they make. Lots of optionality around accessories, apparel and subscriptions (as the blades) with the bike/tread just like a razor (and they make margins on the razor too). Global product and not specific to just the US. It's becoming part of culture now - people falling in love with their digital avatar instructor (some articles around that), AirBnBs and Hotels put them as a perk on their premises. Pay later business models making them affordable for mass consumers (Affirm is the largest source of biz). People using them for 20+ days a month shows the stickiness. Like the risk/reward. Buena suerte. Lots of air still in this bubble. Indeed. It went up a lot and now down a lot because thats what bubbles do. The fundamentals probably arent relevant until $50 a share. Although $100 maybe be a support level cause its a nice round number and thats the type of thing retail investors predicate their shizz on. Kind like how RICK hit a wall at $69! In other news. Shorted some PSTH Jan 2022 $20 puts for ~$3.50, also cranked out some June $22.50s for ~2.50 Long live spac alpha.
LC Posted March 5, 2021 Posted March 5, 2021 BABA, Stock and call options. What options are you looking at?
BG2008 Posted March 5, 2021 Posted March 5, 2021 More GTXMQ.... wabuffo Interesting. I sold out at $6.9 or so.
wabuffo Posted March 5, 2021 Posted March 5, 2021 Interesting. I sold out at $6.9 or so. BBG reporting that the COH and EC reached a deal today. BK exit can now move forward pretty quickly. wabuffo
Buckeye Posted March 5, 2021 Posted March 5, 2021 PTON - starting a position here in mid 90s after the steep fall. $4b fw revenue run rate, 40% margin profile, $28b MCap so not as bad a multiple now. Demand >> Supply, able to sell everything they make. Lots of optionality around accessories, apparel and subscriptions (as the blades) with the bike/tread just like a razor (and they make margins on the razor too). Global product and not specific to just the US. It's becoming part of culture now - people falling in love with their digital avatar instructor (some articles around that), AirBnBs and Hotels put them as a perk on their premises. Pay later business models making them affordable for mass consumers (Affirm is the largest source of biz). People using them for 20+ days a month shows the stickiness. Like the risk/reward. Buena suerte. Lots of air still in this bubble. Indeed. It went up a lot and now down a lot because thats what bubbles do. The fundamentals probably arent relevant until $50 a share. Although $100 maybe be a support level cause its a nice round number and thats the type of thing retail investors predicate their shizz on. Kind like how RICK hit a wall at $69! In other news. Shorted some PSTH Jan 2022 $20 puts for ~$3.50, also cranked out some June $22.50s for ~2.50 Long live spac alpha. Welcome back Gregmal. It's nice to see you here again. Apparently you were missed, as evidenced by the "Save Gregmal" thread:)
Lakesider Posted March 5, 2021 Posted March 5, 2021 BABA, Stock and call options. What options are you looking at? 300 Jan 23 & 260 Jan 23
clutch Posted March 5, 2021 Posted March 5, 2021 Snatched a lot of tech names during the sell-off today: AMZN, ABNB, NVDA, TSLA, SHOP also, COST.
sarganaga Posted March 5, 2021 Posted March 5, 2021 Imperial Brands (IMBBY) Yup, lots here too. A bit less than 4% for me.
RichardGibbons Posted March 6, 2021 Posted March 6, 2021 Bought some UAN Aug $30 calls. Because why wouldn't one want to make a leveraged bet on a company whose business strategy is basically "take on huge operational leverage and then wait for fertilizer prices to increase"? Double the leverage, double the fun! (This describes why UAN is an interesting speculation. Note that the price of UAN32 fertilizer futures have almost doubled YoY, with almost all that increase coming in the past two months. If today's prices hold for six months, I think the options will work out well. If not, they will likely be worthless.)
benchmark Posted March 6, 2021 Posted March 6, 2021 Interesting. I sold out at $6.9 or so. BBG reporting that the COH and EC reached a deal today. BK exit can now move forward pretty quickly. wabuffo What would you expect that bounce would be after the BK exit?
fareastwarriors Posted March 6, 2021 Posted March 6, 2021 Snatched a lot of tech names during the sell-off today: AMZN, ABNB, NVDA, TSLA, SHOP also, COST. Whoa TSLA.... I added some INDT on Friyay.
K2SO Posted March 7, 2021 Posted March 7, 2021 added PZA.TO. Who doesn't love cheap pizza and a clear path to dividend increases?
shamelesscloner Posted March 8, 2021 Posted March 8, 2021 CURI: added around $15 levels. Curiosity stream is the infotainment streaming vehicle of John Hendricks, the founder of Discovery. He owns 40%+ of the stock and has been a buyer in each cap raise. Current T12m revenue runrate is $40m and they should double that in the next year (management aims a 10x in 5 years). The service is priced at ~$20/year (very good value...subscribe if you haven't) and has nearly 10x+ as much documentary content as Netflix (the content library itself is worth $1.3b+ according to management comments vs a current market cap that is half of that). Compared to traditional TV dramas which cost ~$8-10m/hour to make, infotainment content can be made much much cheaper at $200-300K/hour. So like for like, it has more compelling economics than other streamers once it establishes itself as a must have option. Looking ahead they could have 80m+ subs in a few years generating $40/yr+ in ARPU for a $3b+ revenue run-rate and this business could be worth 10-20x of what it is worth now. John Hendricks is very widely connected in the Content/Cable/CTV industry as an OG legend and is thus rapidly getting access to the service everywhere in the world. Start an investment ideas thread? Have you seen any more comprehensive write-ups from fund managers? I'm intrigued.
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