What are you buying today?

[no_free_lunch]

Anyone looking at the Canadian banks?  They are getting lucrative here.  6-7% dividend yields.  Prices are back to 2006 levels.

[alwaysdrawing]

I meant Uccmal but glad to hear your perspective too, always, so thanks. If you don't me asking, what's your total equity exposure then?

 

I'm around 50-60% cash, maybe 10% equities, and around 30% special situations or options. Generally my limits for options are much lower, but it's tough to keep it within limits when they keep going up (see attachment).  I continue to rotate into more bearish names, and more asymmetric bets as I find opportunities.

 

[alwaysdrawing]

Anyone looking at the Canadian banks?  They are getting lucrative here.  6-7% dividend yields.  Prices are back to 2006 levels.

 

Some of them are good put targets.  ;)

[Uccmal]

Al,

 

How are you positioned now? Any equities?

 

Hi Paul, 130% equities maybe, varies by the day.  It was about 110% 5 weeks ago. 

Hence the puts and why I am patiently waiting for the next major downdraft.  I have 4 untapped lines of credit for backup, if the drop from here exceeds 50%, they may come in handy. 

 

We’ve been here before. 

 

a.

[Uccmal]

Anyone looking at the Canadian banks?  They are getting lucrative here.  6-7% dividend yields.  Prices are back to 2006 levels.

 

I am just riding my 10% or so stake in RY down for now. 

 

I have a bid in for RY at 50 CDN, and for TD at a similar discount. Their brokerages are doing well.  :-).  NIMs are compressed.  Dividends, who knows. 

[Uccmal]

Will be looking at Call Leaps in a few days for the best companies. 

[CorpRaider]

Anyone looking at the Canadian banks?  They are getting lucrative here.  6-7% dividend yields.  Prices are back to 2006 levels.

 

I want some but decided to wait till close to TBV. 

[Guest]

I meant Uccmal but glad to hear your perspective too, always, so thanks. If you don't me asking, what's your total equity exposure then?

 

I'm around 50-60% cash, maybe 10% equities, and around 30% special situations or options. Generally my limits for options are much lower, but it's tough to keep it within limits when they keep going up (see attachment).  I continue to rotate into more bearish names, and more asymmetric bets as I find opportunities.

 

Nice man!

[Artha158]

CXW

[Lance]

BAM, BP, BTI, BX, CXW, KHC, GEO, KMI, MO, PPL, RDSb, SPG, SWK, UTG, VIAC, WFC, XOM

 

 

Thanks

Lance

[Gregmal]

Man what a day.

 

Wondering if Donald is signing todays intraday chart? "I'm not responsible"....

 

Bought FRPH, DD, CTO, MSG, PCYO, BRK, HTL, and small GOOG add

 

 

[jgyetzer]

Gradually buying a COVID-19 “barbell.”  Half in things I believe will be mostly unaffected or become more valuable throughout the quarantines (Mostly cable cos and BRK, FB, NTDOY).  Other side with companies that may be impaired during the pandemic, but great assuming they can weather the storm (DIS, LYV, MSG, BATRK, IAC). 

 

Also, mostly distracting myself so I don’t sell off existing holdings

[Casey]

AMZN

[Spekulatius]

TRV and PINS

[ERICOPOLY]

 

Wondering if Donald is signing todays intraday chart? "I'm not responsible"....

 

 

Obama should do that, except he has too much class/maturity.

[gjangal]

Buying V at a forward pe of 20. For all those who have been waiting for V , this looks like a good chance. Once the case curve flattens, economic activity should return to normal slowly. Given where rates are , this seems like an good price for a good company

[Spekulatius]

Buying V at a forward pe of 20. For all those who have been waiting for V , this looks like a good chance. Once the case curve flattens, economic activity should return to normal slowly. Given where rates are , this seems like an good price for a good company

 

Seems like a good low risk bet, I wouldn’t put too much into forward multiples, as they sure will come down though. I do agree that V and MA are probably the quickest to bounce back.

[Castanza]

re-entered some GOOG around 1080

 

Edit: RTN 117

[Williams406]

Buying V at a forward pe of 20. For all those who have been waiting for V , this looks like a good chance. Once the case curve flattens, economic activity should return to normal slowly. Given where rates are , this seems like an good price for a good company

 

Where are you getting the forward earnings #? Is that consensus earnings? Your estimate of future earnings?

[LC]

Bought V,

Sold some IRM calls

Bought back some SPY calls that I sold earlier in the week.

 

I had a pretty good experience selling calls last week with such high volatility premiums. I was selling calls that would have me breakeven at equity prices seen in the early market response to COVID19 (prices at SP500 levels of 28/2900). With short tenors too, for example 3/31 expiry. I figured, if the markets stay depressed I pocket some nice premiums, if the markets rebound I lose out on the calls but the remainder of my portfolio will outperform.

[sleepydragon]

Added BRKB

and also TSCO..  With people wfh, maybe more will start raising chicken!

 

[Uccmal]

Added BRKB

and also TSCO..  With people wfh, maybe more will start raising chicken!

 

I hear bats make good eating.  Taste like chicken. 

[Uccmal]

Bought V,

Sold some IRM calls

Bought back some SPY calls that I sold earlier in the week.

 

I had a pretty good experience selling calls last week with such high volatility premiums. I was selling calls that would have me breakeven at equity prices seen in the early market response to COVID19 (prices at SP500 levels of 28/2900). With short tenors too, for example 3/31 expiry. I figured, if the markets stay depressed I pocket some nice premiums, if the markets rebound I lose out on the calls but the remainder of my portfolio will outperform.

 

LC, .can you walk me through one example of this.  It eats a lot of margin, non?

[Spekulatius]

Added BRKB

and also TSCO..  With people wfh, maybe more will start raising chicken!

 

I hear bats make good eating.  Taste like chicken.

 

I’d probably go for squirrels first. I do have a lot of bats flying around my house in warm summer evenings, but I think hunting them would require a shotgun with a night scope.

 

One acquaintance  from our town told me that gun and ammo are sold out. I guess Dick’s sporting is missing out on some revenues.

[LC]

Bought V,

Sold some IRM calls

Bought back some SPY calls that I sold earlier in the week.

 

I had a pretty good experience selling calls last week with such high volatility premiums. I was selling calls that would have me breakeven at equity prices seen in the early market response to COVID19 (prices at SP500 levels of 28/2900). With short tenors too, for example 3/31 expiry. I figured, if the markets stay depressed I pocket some nice premiums, if the markets rebound I lose out on the calls but the remainder of my portfolio will outperform.

 

LC, .can you walk me through one example of this.  It eats a lot of margin, non?

 

Yes, does require some margin for coverage depending on your holdings.

 

For example I was buying various SP500 companies when the index was in the 2800 range - around Feb 28. And then again as the index moved down to 2600, 2500 but let's leave those out. This brought my average cost for these stocks to a price range where the SP500 is around 3000.

 

Come March 11, 12, now the index is in the 2500s or thereabouts. And volatility is crazy high.

 

I am thinking, well damn, I averaged down too early (of course). And everything I owned prior to COVID is bombed out. So where can things go from here? Well, up down or neutral (duh).

 

In terms of selling calls:

 

-Neutral I wasn't too concerned about as (1) volatility is crazy; (2) quality information is sparse (see the COVID thread for my thoughts on that). Nobody really knows what the outcome of all this will be. And if the market remains neutral around the 2500 mark, well those calls will expire worthless anyways.

 

-If the market tanks further, well my portfolio is going to continue to crater. But that's a sunk cost, I will want more cash to buy stocks I like even cheaper, and ride it out. And again here, the calls expire worthless but at least provide some premium to buy now-lower-priced stocks.

 

-If the market rebounds, well now the majority of my portfolio is looking just fine. I bought some when the index was at 2800, bought a little more around 25, 2600. So, that's a good situation for me, but I am giving up any upside above 2800 (strike price of the calls).

 

So I sold SPY calls, 280-strike, expiring Mar 31 (only 2.5 week tenor!). I already had sold covered calls on other stocks I owned back when the index was 3000+; I closed all those positions out for next-to-nothing. So I was totally un-hedged, and then sold enough SPY calls to cover about 50% of my portfolio's notional.

 

Essentially, it was getting paid 3% premium for 3 weeks of exposure to 3.5% of upside losses.

 

I.e. I would potentially have to lock in losses for stocks initially purchased at index-weighted-average prices of 3000, but forced to sell at 2800 if called (7% total loss, but again I was only 50% exposed so 3.5% total)