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Guest cherzeca
Posted

bought a little spy.  may add more if goes down more

Posted

Added 50% to MSGN, back up to about a 6% position. Small add to PCYO, BRK, MSB. Would guess we're close to a bottom. But what do I know.

 

I hope not, would like to buy more.

 

Added to V today. Might join u guys on this MSGN trade for funsies.

Posted

1.) a bunch of cash (sold FFH)

2.) BRK

3.) And a little BAC and C. But post purchase i am thinking i am early with BAC and C :-)

 

I am thinking we may only be in the early innings of this sell off so capital preservation is a focus. Patience...

Posted

I liked some of the action in certain names during the last hour or two of trading. But generally speaking, much like last night, I dont like when the futures immediately rebound following the close. Usually you need all hope lost, and a good gap down to open that can then flush everyone out.

 

Funny side note. Apple still has like 20% downside. To get back to October's prices...

Posted
I am thinking we may only be in the early innings of this sell off so capital preservation is a focus. Patience...

I never know when, so I go in drips-and-drabs. In terms of cash-on-hand never more than 10% per week, which in the event of a "prolonged" downturn gives me at least 10-20 weeks to pick up shares; plus more as cash flows during those 10-20 weeks comes in (salary, dividends, etc.)

Posted

I liked some of the action in certain names during the last hour or two of trading. But generally speaking, much like last night, I dont like when the futures immediately rebound following the close. Usually you need all hope lost, and a good gap down to open that can then flush everyone out.

 

Funny side note. Apple still has like 20% downside. To get back to October's prices...

 

Agreed. Not sure this is over and not convinced we've caught down to the fundamentals that have continued to deteriorate month after month.

 

That being said, while I did reinvest my called call proceeds yesterday, the profits I've booked from my put positions sold over the last two days are remaining in cash and am looking to re-add put exposure if we get a subsequent bounce and VIX below 20.

 

Still keeping my overall portfolio allocation at roughly 50/50 and don't think I'll consider adding equity risk back into the portfolio until we're down significantly.

Posted

Not much yet.

 

I think we have weeks or more of worse Coronavirus news to go. It would surprise me if Trump & the fed can paper over it.

Posted

On one end, much of this is overdone, especially if you are investing in US isolated companies. I can think of plenty that have gotten wrecked. On the other end, the market had no business going up 10% or whatever the past few months, for practically no reason. So I guess much of it is a wash. As always, life is a lot easier when you focus on specific investment you know well.

Posted

Added a small bit to MSG at 272. Algos are going bananas today

 

Not Algos, they depend on live events which might get cancelled if things go Corona south. MSGN is tied to the same mast.

Posted

Added a small bit to MSG at 272. Algos are going bananas today

 

Not Algos, they depend on live events which might get cancelled if things go Corona south. MSGN is tied to the same mast.

 

The volume surges definitely seem like algos, and zip within ranges quite noticeably. Either way, at worst, this is a one off hardship assuming its full blown Resident Evil. Hardly enough to impair the value 10% when it's already discounted 20%+. Just markets being skittish. Could be worse. Like AMC.

Posted

I bought more LGL Group (LGL) at $11.50 to $12.50.  Sells products to defense industry.  Down from $16 last couple days on both the general market / virus and reported lower bookings in 4Q19.  Big picture -  my estimate for 2020 - LGL will earn $2 million to $4 million FCF on enterprise value of $38 million (at $11.75 stock price).  Did $1.75 million FCF in 2018 & I estimate about $3.25 million in 2019.

 

Has an ownership in a SPAC, that, if successful in finding an acquisition, can materially move the stock price.  (Lottery ticket that's not priced into shares at all.)

 

Mario Gabelli owns over 20%.  Can't remember exact ownership figure.

 

Good price, good business, with motivated management and owners.

 

Good luck all :)

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