What are you buying today?

[TwoCitiesCapital]

M - Macy’s. I think 3 of their prime properties - Herald Square NY, State Street Chicago and Union Square SF are worth like half the EV of the entire company ($9 b as of today)

 

But as learned with Sears, it matters not what those properties are worth if they're not sold OR if the proceeds from the sale prop up the retail business.

 

Not saying that M is going the way of JCP or Sears - just that I'm skeptical of the value department styles provide overall given my own shopping habits and prior investment experiences

[Gregmal]

M - Macy’s. I think 3 of their prime properties - Herald Square NY, State Street Chicago and Union Square SF are worth like half the EV of the entire company ($9 b as of today)

 

But as learned with Sears, it matters but what those properties are worth of they're not sold OR if the proceeds from the sale prop up the retail business.

 

Not saying that M is going the way of JCP or Sears - just that I'm skeptical of the value department styles provide overall given my own shopping habits and prior investment experiences

 

Macy's needs to demonstrate it is different than everyone else. The playbook for every failing business is more or less SHLD. Sell your valuable assets and keep the crap floating. Macys should immediately spin off a SRG like REIT, sell the Macys retail operations, and then just refocus on Bloomingdales. People buy cheap knock off shit on Amazon all the time. Whereas the moat of Bloomingdales is that no one buys that kind of designer shit they sell online due to knock offs.

[Gregmal]

Just snagged a decent starter chunk of GRIF as the opening spread was fairly narrow.

[bizaro86]

Bought a bit of CARV this AM. Small NYC bank that is down 90% today. Released (not very good) earnings yesterday, but capital ratios still look reasonable and I couldn't find any enforcement actions or anything.

[brycepeterson]

Nibbling on FOX $33-$35.  FCF should range $1.6-$2.0 = 6.25% to 7.5% FCF to EV.  Good assets (Fox News, Fox Sports).  Fairly steady cash flow.  That's a good price vs. all other bizs in market, and considering quality of biz.  I'd buy a lot more, but have reservations on the next generation Murdoch(s) running it.  Just paid $300 million for acq that I don't understand.  Worry it's a trend.

[Saluki]

Bought some more BRK and PBF.  Just starting a new position in EAF. 

[Foreign Tuffett]

Bought a bit of CARV this AM. Small NYC bank that is down 90% today. Released (not very good) earnings yesterday, but capital ratios still look reasonable and I couldn't find any enforcement actions or anything.

 

I'm not familiar with this company whatsoever, but is it actually down by ~90% today? What service is showing it as being down that much? I've checked several and only Seeking Alpha is showing down by ~90%.

 

 

 

[writser]

Agreed. I hope that is not the reason you bought it.

[bizaro86]

Bought a bit of CARV this AM. Small NYC bank that is down 90% today. Released (not very good) earnings yesterday, but capital ratios still look reasonable and I couldn't find any enforcement actions or anything.

 

I'm not familiar with this company whatsoever, but is it actually down by ~90% today? What service is showing it as being down that much? I've checked several and only Seeking Alpha is showing down by ~90%.

 

Thanks! I saw it on the SA biggest losers list, pulled up the 10-Q and checked the P/B and whether it was actually bankrupt and bought a few hundred shares.

 

The $13MM in trust preferreds that haven't been paid for years is a pretty significant factor in the current valuation that I also missed.

 

I though this was an illiquid fat finger type deal, and it wasn't,  so I've sold. Thanks to you both for helping keep my loss on carelessness <$100.

[Foreign Tuffett]

Bought a bit of CARV this AM. Small NYC bank that is down 90% today. Released (not very good) earnings yesterday, but capital ratios still look reasonable and I couldn't find any enforcement actions or anything.

 

I'm not familiar with this company whatsoever, but is it actually down by ~90% today? What service is showing it as being down that much? I've checked several and only Seeking Alpha is showing down by ~90%.

 

Thanks! I saw it on the SA biggest losers list, pulled up the 10-Q and checked the P/B and whether it was actually bankrupt and bought a few hundred shares.

 

The $13MM in trust preferreds that haven't been paid for years is a pretty significant factor in the current valuation that I also missed.

 

I though this was an illiquid fat finger type deal, and it wasn't,  so I've sold. Thanks to you both for helping keep my loss on carelessness <$100.

 

No worries.

[gokou3]

More WFC

[sarganaga]

Bought some Birchcliff Energy (BIREF, BIR.TO) yesterday & today. Has looked cheap for awhile, even cheaper now. Good long term assets, appears to have pretty competent management, Kitimat project (assuming it completes) should add value.

[Gregmal]

PCG puts, wish me luck.

 

Bravo

[EricSchleien]

More TRUP

[Ahab]

PCG puts, wish me luck.

 

Bravo

Thanks  8)

[BG2008]

Just snagged a decent starter chunk of GRIF as the opening spread was fairly narrow.

 

How many shares did you snag?  Just curious about your view on GRIF.

[Gregmal]

Just snagged a decent starter chunk of GRIF as the opening spread was fairly narrow.

 

How many shares did you snag?  Just curious about your view on GRIF.

 

Got 2,000 between 34.86 and $35,

 

First, your/the thesis is right. You won't lose money on GRIF at $35 unless you're a forced seller. I just think you're a bit early.

 

Full disclosure, on a quick bounce to high 30's I'm probably out. I think this is the low end of an opportune trading range. Done it a couple times before.

 

Longer term, I think this is something that fits the FRP/CTO mold in that its transformational while under the radar. A couple years out I think they've got a shot at doing $30M NOI. That puts the share price at $55+ with the other assets valued at nil.

 

Gabelli is + much like Winters was at CTO.

 

Management is so far, from what Ive observed, capable. Not outstanding but not a detriment.

 

Basically, Im cool with FRPH here, and I see CTO going parabolic with it's catalysts between now and next year's AGM, so I want to line up my next one. GRIF doesn't have the liquidity to just hop on in, so this is a good starter spot IMO. I believe Ive shared with you my position on CTO. Im fine going there with GRIF as well if we get $30 or below. There might not be a hard catalyst, but one of my favorite catalysts is when people say "there's no catalyst". More often than not that is when the catalyst is right around the corner.

[Gregmal]

Added some MSG under 270. Couldn't help it. Always sells off on earnings. Earnings for MSG don't matter. Hopefully the market never learns...

[Spekulatius]

Added some MSG under 270. Couldn't help it. Always sells off on earnings. Earnings for MSG don't matter. Hopefully the market never learns...

 

Added some too, but it didn’t sell off on earnings as I first thought. It was the news about the MSG Sphere project cost increase (from $1.2b assumed to $1.7B proposed) and the delayed spinofff do the sports assets that caused the drop, in my opinion. I do agree that earnings shouldn’t matter.

[alpha]

Added to FIH.U

[Lance]

MSGN

 

Thanks

Lance

[Gregmal]

MSGN

 

Thanks

Lance

 

Yup, from the looks of it, I'll likely be adding to this(again) today as well. Bottomless abyss. Odd for a company with such easily predictable and stable earnings.

 

I think Dolan is actually a plus here, as he has the power to change many of the arrangements that may or may not become favorable with MSG, and will basically be able to make whatever arrangements are necessary to get a deal done. He obviously wants to sell this, and given the capital needed for his giant TV projects, will likely have to start considering selling some assets given he isn't really allowed to borrow much against the sports teams.

[Spekulatius]

^ I passed on this because it is a cigarbutt ( albeit with a lot of life left) in a sense that it will be worth far less once the contract with MSG ( the sister co) is up. It rather deal with the foibles of MSG, as sports team valuations have  tail winds.

[Gregmal]

^ I passed on this because it is a cigarbutt ( albeit with a lot of life left) in a sense that it will be worth far less once the contract with MSG ( the sister co) is up. It rather deal with the foibles of MSG, as sports team valuations have  tail winds.

 

Dolan still controls both entities. He won't just let the contract run out and wipe out billions in value.

 

Just added more at 14.75.

 

Company has been plowing cash into debt pay down, now standing around $700M net of cash. You've got $200M FCF and even with sub decline a fairly decent chunk of it will continue to get offset by decrease in interest expenses.

[benchmark]

^ I passed on this because it is a cigarbutt ( albeit with a lot of life left) in a sense that it will be worth far less once the contract with MSG ( the sister co) is up. It rather deal with the foibles of MSG, as sports team valuations have  tail winds.

 

Dolan still controls both entities. He won't just let the contract run out and wipe out billions in value.

 

Just added more at 14.75.

 

Company has been plowing cash into debt pay down, now standing around $700M net of cash. You've got $200M FCF and even with sub decline a fairly decent chunk of it will continue to get offset by decrease in interest expenses.

 

6.5% decrease in subscriber is staggering