Zelman on housing

[Gmthebeau]

2 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

SF real estate is definitely down , but not 35%. If I were to make a guess it’s probably more 10% (more in very swanky areas). I still have friends living in the Bay Area and nobody talks about RE down 35% so far. I do think a 35% crash in RE in the SF area is possible even with RE in the US overall not taking much of a hit.

 

I think we want a diversity of opinions here . Maybe it’s just me, but I want both the @Gregmal and the @Gmthebeau to post.

yea I don’t know the true numbers nobody does.  Worst report said 35, many say 20%, others about 15.  It’s down a lot to anyone who chased it at the top.   It’s likely going down more for sure.  This isn’t done in my opinion.

[Gregmal]

Huh? I don’t think I’ve ever used the term “moon forever” nor do I even really know what that means. You sound like some 25 year old fool on Stocktwits or Reddit. The type that buy stocks like Tesla and Moderna in October 2021. The posts are all here in this thread, although I’ve noticed you deleted a bunch in addition to a bunch of other stuff you blatantly lie about. Have a good day with your bonds. 

Edited July 4, 2023 by Gregmal

[Gmthebeau]

1 minute ago, Gregmal said:

Huh? I don’t think I’ve ever used the term “moon forever” nor do I even really know what that means. You sound like some 25 year old fool on Stocktwits or Reddit. The type that buy stocks like Tesla and Moderna in October 2021. The posts are all here in this thread, although I’ve noticed you deleted a bunch. Have a good day with your bonds. 

I have deleted nothing, yes it’s all here.  You were dead wrong anyone can go back and read it.  

[Gregmal]

Lol ok. “Moon forevah!”…

 

Got any other “long term trends” and stock picks for us? We are all open to em, even if you’re gonna disappear when they implode and then come back years later and say you sold them a few weeks later! We ll even let you take a victory lap on calling the implosion of an asset class that…checks notes…. Was flat to slightly up last year despite broader market weakness.
 

Anyhow, don’t know what your fixation is with SF housing. Don’t really care either. You can be an expert on shitty crime, drug, and homeless filled liberal cities. Thread was and is about the overall housing market. People here know exactly what areas I invest in. It’s all good. 

Edited July 4, 2023 by Gregmal

[Gmthebeau]

1 hour ago, Gregmal said:

Lol ok. “Moon forevah!”…

 

Got any other “long term trends” and stock picks for us? We are all open to em, even if you’re gonna disappear when they implode and then come back years later and say you sold them a few weeks later! We ll even let you take a victory lap on calling the implosion of an asset class that…checks notes…. Was flat to slightly up last year despite broader market weakness.
 

Anyhow, don’t know what your fixation is with SF housing. Don’t really care either. You can be an expert on shitty crime, drug, and homeless filled liberal cities. Thread was and is about the overall housing market. People here know exactly what areas I invest in. It’s all good. 

 

Dude, I said I was leaving long before any of those stocks imploded.  You just keep trying to desperately rewrite history from your losing position that the SF housing market would go up forever.  You were DEAD WRONG.  Let's not lose sight of that FACT.   I remember you said it was "desirable" now it's shitty.  I guess after watching it implode you changed your mind how desirable it actually was.   I will post some stock ideas after you finally give up your nonsensical posting.

Edited July 4, 2023 by Gmthebeau

[Gregmal]

Facts! LOL

 

How it started:

Citing FRED

Claiming housing is terrible

Boasting about bubble stonks

 

How its going:

Citing Wolfstreet

Ignoring almost every housing market in the US but strangely SF Bay Area. 

Boasting about owning bonds

 

 

#mooning

Edited July 4, 2023 by Gregmal

[Ulti]

Back to the subject at hand:

 

https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/housing-inventory-and-demographics

[Gmthebeau]

50 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

Facts! LOL

 

How it started:

Citing FRED

Claiming housing is terrible

Boasting about bubble stonks

 

How its going:

Citing Wolfstreet

Ignoring almost every housing market in the US but strangely SF Bay Area. 

Boasting about owning bonds

 

 

#mooning

 

I didn't say housing was terrible, I said it was overvalued in some markets and S.F was what you focused on.  Clearly, that turned out to be the case.  Already said other hot areas went down too.  Guessing reading is NOT your strong suit??  

 

In a runaway bull market you buy the leaders.  You sell them once the market tops.  This is how you KEEP the money and not give it back.

 

I said I owned bonds and dividend stocks now.  Don't see how thats boasting?  We are not in a runaway bull market any longer.  Different times call for different strategies.  It's called managing risk.  You are clearly a sick deranged individual.  A normal person would have just admitted they got it wrong. Not you.  Instead you double down on lies, propaganda and nonsense.

 

#derangedidiot

 

Edited July 4, 2023 by Gmthebeau

[Gregmal]

So now we are back to the classic fools argument that any asset class, no matter how much of a longer term runway, that can possibly experience a 10-20% pullback, even if purely theoretical, is worth avoiding. Even if it greatly outperforms pretty much every other asset class during a turbulent market stretch. 
 

My god this guy is gold and the gift that keeps on giving, assuming it’s satire. If he s serious…..

 

Oh, and now my long standing exposure to residential real estate in NJ and Florida is “lies, propaganda and nonsense”….this guy is too much.

 

#stillmooning 

Edited July 4, 2023 by Gregmal

[SharperDingaan]

2 hours ago, Spooky said:

 

Thanks SD, not a bad idea at all. Was talking to some friends from Calgary and they said the demographics of the city are changing fast, lots of new people moving there.

 

Keep in mind that Alberta is also a boom & bust province, and it's young people and young migrants/immigrants who travel for work. Red Deer is only 140km up the road from Calgary, and is currently the 10th most affordable city in Canada...

 

Red Deer: https://www.nesto.ca/real-estate/20-cheapest-cities-to-live-in-canada/

Average Monthly Expenses for a Single Person (excluding rent): $861

Average Monthly Cost of 1-Bedroom in the City: $948

 

Calgary is also somewhat unique; oil/gas head-office hub, university town, tourist route to/from the Rockies. A 20-30 something has a lot of incentive to make it home for a while, get an education, work the mostly local tourist jobs, meet all the traveling Australian/Nordic ski-bums on walkabout,  and use the opportunity to find a significant other. Forces down the city demographics. 

 

Great place to get the family started, but once the eldest gets to kindergarten ... decisions need to be made. To escape the oil/gas 'trap', you really need to move to either Toronto or Vancouver; all good 

 

SD

 

 

 

 

 

[Gmthebeau]

9 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

So now we are back to the classic fools argument that any asset class, no matter how much of a longer term runway, that can possibly experience a 10-20% pullback, even if purely theoretical, is worth avoiding. Even if it greatly outperforms pretty much every other asset class during a turbulent market stretch. 
 

My god this guy is gold and the gift that keeps on giving, assuming it’s satire. If he s serious…..

 

Oh, and now my long standing exposure to residential real estate in NJ and Florida is “lies, propaganda and nonsense”….this guy is too much.

 

#stillmooning 

 

If you sell at the top of a bull market and buy back at cheap you will end up with a lot more money in the long run.  It's called risk management.   You might google Seth Klarman and related investors you will learn they invest the same way.  You want to buy more at cheap and sell at rich.  You ideas are so basic I wonder if you are 24 years old just out of college?   

 

#cluelesswindbag

 

[spartansaver]

8 minutes ago, Gmthebeau said:

 

If you sell at the top of a bull market and buy back at cheap you will end up with a lot more money in the long run.  It's called risk management.   You might google Seth Klarman and related investors you will learn they invest the same way.  You want to buy more at cheap and sell at rich.  You ideas are so basic I wonder if you are 24 years old just out of college?   

 

#cluelesswindbag

 

Lol this just feels like a troll wanting to pick a fight.

[Gregmal]

Lol I don’t think this guy realizes we can all go back and read the thread posts. He lectured us on “housing” and today, despite no evidence of it, claims he was purely just referring to SF and a few other markets. He lectured us on his prowess with bubble stocks for the long haul(even in some posts mentioning thinking “years ahead” of everyone else) only to now claim he dumped them “just before they blew up”(despite zero evidence of that either)..it’s pretty funny. He does so using words and terminology that belong in the Reddit threads….but yea…. Teach us how to moon you little turd. Lol

 

 

[Gmthebeau]

1 hour ago, Gregmal said:

Lol I don’t think this guy realizes we can all go back and read the thread posts. He lectured us on “housing” and today, despite no evidence of it, claims he was purely just referring to SF and a few other markets. He lectured us on his prowess with bubble stocks for the long haul(even in some posts mentioning thinking “years ahead” of everyone else) only to now claim he dumped them “just before they blew up”(despite zero evidence of that either)..it’s pretty funny. He does so using words and terminology that belong in the Reddit threads….but yea…. Teach us how to moon you little turd. Lol

 

 

 

Dude, you make ZERO sense.  You just keep pulling out your Trump playbook instead of admitting you were DEAD WRONG.  You thought SF housing would go up and up and up.  I told you it wouldn't.  You went BONKERS AND NUTS at the thought of someone disagreeing with you.   Now 2 years later after you were PROVED WRONG you are still going BONKERS AND NUTS when someone points out you were wrong.  

 

You can't invest. You are clueless.  Your ideas idiotic and basic.  You were FOMOing at the top 2 years ago, and likely shitting your pants at the bottom.  You have proven you can't control your emotions or admit a mistake both traits needed for a good investor.  You are jealous I sold out near the top and retired.  You are still bag holding your losers and working your 9 to 5 shift at McDonalds.  F'ing loser.

 

I hate to block anyone but you will never stop.  You are to retarded for words honestly.  It's sad the world has such retarded deranged people.  You will be blocked now.  Bye bye Mr Imbecile.

 

Edited July 4, 2023 by Gmthebeau

[Gregmal]

9 minutes ago, Gmthebeau said:

Now 2 years later after you were PROVED WRONG you are still going BONKERS AND NUTS when someone points out you were wrong.  You can't invest. You are clueless.  Your ideas idiotic and basic.  I

In October 2021 you were touting Tesla and Moderna and I said buy APTS. 
 

#stillmooning 

[Spooky]

5 hours ago, SharperDingaan said:

To escape the oil/gas 'trap', you really need to move to either Toronto or Vancouver;

 

Canada really needs some more options haha. The GTA is a trap as well, becoming way too crowded and expensive.

Edited July 4, 2023 by Spooky

[Gregmal]

 

 

On 10/20/2021 at 7:29 PM, Gmthebeau said:

My money in MRNA as my largest holding.  

 

MRNA stock price on 10/20/2021.....$335

 

 

 

 

 

On 10/21/2021 at 9:34 AM, Gmthebeau said:

I am pretty new here and see the quality content I have been missing out on.   A club of clowns digging thru the trash to find that last cigar butt or to afraid or don't understand how to invest in the future.

 

 

 

 

Meanwhile, I tried finding even just ONE example of being wildly bullish or even opining on SF housing in any way to this dope. All I found was the below post, its the only post where I even mention SF... Here it is! Definitely mooning! 

 

On 10/20/2021 at 1:26 PM, Gregmal said:

People will always quote ridiculous academic papers as fact. Go to NYC or SF or South Florida even and tell all the totally normal, regular run of the mill real estate millionaires there is no benefit/growth/return above inflation in housing.....real world vs academic always offer varying narratives and often there is truth to both but a high skew towards the real world. And yet, still, the academics will always point to "yea but in '06" or some exception to the rule scenario. 

Edited July 4, 2023 by Gregmal

[Dinar]

5 hours ago, Gmthebeau said:

 

If you sell at the top of a bull market and buy back at cheap you will end up with a lot more money in the long run.  It's called risk management.   You might google Seth Klarman and related investors you will learn they invest the same way.  You want to buy more at cheap and sell at rich.  You ideas are so basic I wonder if you are 24 years old just out of college?   

 

#cluelesswindbag

 

Do you happen to know what Seth Klarman's return over the past 15.5 years (since 12/31/2007) happens to be?  If so, would you or anyone else mind posting it?  Thank you in advance.

[Spekulatius]

I do not think Canada is the blueprint for the US. For once, Canada has way more immigration than the US /~500k in Canada vs ~1.5M in the US while  Canada population is ~1/10 of the USA‘s. I also think that USA has far more places to accommodate new housing (like in the South where ist’s still fairly easy to build) while Canada is restraint in their urban areas like Toronto and Vancouver.

 

I always thought about Canada as a huge country with enormous open spaces , but I think the vast majority of Canadians lives within a 100mile strip of the US border  and even in that strip there are huge open spaces in the prairies or New Brunswick  for example. So on other words, the population density in the locations where people want to live (or can make a living) is very high compared to the US.

 

 

[thepupil]

So this gregmal guy…is he in the room with us now? 

[no_free_lunch]

I'm hoping real estate prices drop off in Canada as the 5 year rates sink in.  Foolish to predict and i know it.  Still sales volume are down 30 to 50 % in major markets so it may alreadyhavestarted. 

 

I wonder if the immigration charges over the past year aren't a last ditch attempt to prop up prices.  There are now 2x the number of immigrants from a few years ago and that was already a high number.

Edited July 5, 2023 by no_free_lunch

[Gregmal]

12 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

I do not think Canada is the blueprint for the US. For once, Canada has way more immigration than the US /~500k in Canada vs ~1.5M in the US while  Canada population is ~1/10 of the USA‘s. I also think that USA has far more places to accommodate new housing (like in the South where ist’s still fairly easy to build) while Canada is restraint in their urban areas like Toronto and Vancouver.

 

I always thought about Canada as a huge country with enormous open spaces , but I think the vast majority of Canadians lives within a 100mile strip of the US border  and even in that strip there are huge open spaces in the prairies or New Brunswick  for example. So on other words, the population density in the locations where people want to live (or can make a living) is very high compared to the US.

 

 

Immigration angle is interesting because of the job market. If much doesn’t get shifted to AI derived solutions, immigration has to be a big part of the future here. 
 

But otherwise I think density is similar in a lot of ways but you have to break things down, and in a lot of ways, use a seismic hazard map approach to 3 key categories. Places people go to work. Places people go to play. Places people go to retire. The population you need to break down based on 20-30 years of age let’s call it, the single and having fun crowd. 30-55, families etc. 55+ retirees. The more overlap you have for an area the better. You also need weight though to each category. Which has the longest duration? Which has the highest sensitivity to economic shifts. Etc. certain places are drawing big and the momentum is just increasing. Others will just be boring I think. A few will suffer. 

[Gregmal]

22 minutes ago, thepupil said:

So this gregmal guy…is he in the room with us now? 

Sup my man. You ve been low key last few months…hope you’re not getting crushed by the residential real estate collapse happening virtually no where in America. 

[maplevalue]

56 minutes ago, no_free_lunch said:

I'm hoping real estate prices drop off in Canada as the 5 year rates sink in.  Foolish to predict and i know it.  Still sales volume are down 30 to 50 % in major markets so it may alreadyhavestarted. 

 

Truly hard to tell what will happen since the effect of higher rates has not really been felt yet. Gut tells me all levels of government will do whatever it takes for housing to not fall, so could have a period of time where prices flattish, but the cost of a mortgage is crazy high as rates stay elevated.

 

56 minutes ago, no_free_lunch said:

I wonder if the immigration charges over the past year aren't a last ditch attempt to prop up prices.  There are now 2x the number of immigrants from a few years ago and that was already a high number.

 

Widely followed analyst Ben Rabidoux noted in a tweet sometime in the past year that he received a tip from someone in cabinet that propping up the real estate market was behind some of the recent immigration changes (cannot recall which one).

[Gmthebeau]

2 hours ago, Dinar said:

Do you happen to know what Seth Klarman's return over the past 15.5 years (since 12/31/2007) happens to be?  If so, would you or anyone else mind posting it?  Thank you in advance.

no I don’t know over the past 15 years.  It’s reportedly 20% annually since 1983.