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What companies do you currently own?


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In order of weightings. Top 2 stocks are weighted heavily.  Weights don't add up to 100% due to leverage in portfolio, but because of longs & shorts total portfolio beta is about 1.1x right now.

 

Longs, 68% weight

FCBN - 15% of total portfolio

FFH - 13% of total portfolio

BRK.B

NVS

JNJ

XOM

APOL

TRK

NATL

CVX

GE

PVD

ATW

PKX

TSE:8031

UG

MOCO

CLCL

 

Shorts, 17% weight

GLD

NFLX

UA

GRMN

PLL

GET

CETV

WFMI

GMCR

WMK

CMG

ALGN

RNIN

TELK

Option Trades (Longs and Shorts), 33% weight

FAZ

JNJ

DNB

DELL

KFT

BRK.B

PKX

SPY

WMT

BAC

TZA

EBAY

BP

QCOM

MSFT

Fixed Income (Bonds & Preferreds), 10% weight

GS PRD

First Data Bonds

BAC BML PRJ

VCI Bonds

WFC PRJ

 

Merger Arb Plays, 15% weight

ACF

DYN

FMMH

MFE

PSYS

SWSI

ATAC

PPCO

 

Macro Trades, 5% weight

Short MXN Peso

VXX trade

Puts on Long bond

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I have been a net seller since the last version of this thread was posted.

 

Stuff I have been buying:

Star Buffett

United American Healthcare (own x% of this and it's complicated)

 

Stuff I have sold:

Fortress International Group

Aspen Exploration

Signature Eyewear

Manhattan Loan

 

Stuff I am still holding:

AutoInfo

Penn Miller

ITEX

Solitron Devices

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As a Canadian, I own the following:

adp

ata.to

bax

brk.b

cpb

dell

deo

xom

ffh

fbk.to

ftp.to

gvc.to

hf.to

jnj

je.un.to

mdt

msft

pep

pm

qcom

ssw

tre.to

teva

tup

v

wag

wfc

wed.to

day.to

Largest holdings are ata.to, brk.b, deo, ffh, ftp.to, gvc.to, jnj, je.un.to, v.  They comprise about 52% of my portfolio, in about equal amounts. When Cdn dollar weakens, my U.S. stocks benefit, and vice versa re stronger Cdn.

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In order of weightings. Top 2 stocks are weighted heavily.  Weights don't add up to 100% due to leverage in portfolio, but because of longs & shorts total portfolio beta is about 1.1x right now.

 

Longs, 68% weight

FCBN - 15% of total portfolio

FFH - 13% of total portfolio

BRK.B

NVS

JNJ

XOM

APOL

TRK

NATL

CVX

GE

PVD

ATW

PKX

TSE:8031

UG

MOCO

CLCL

 

Shorts, 17% weight

GLD

NFLX

UA

GRMN

PLL

GET

CETV

WFMI

GMCR

WMK

CMG

ALGN

RNIN

TELK

Option Trades (Longs and Shorts), 33% weight

FAZ

JNJ

DNB

DELL

KFT

BRK.B

PKX

SPY

WMT

BAC

TZA

EBAY

BP

QCOM

MSFT

Fixed Income (Bonds & Preferreds), 10% weight

GS PRD

First Data Bonds

BAC BML PRJ

VCI Bonds

WFC PRJ

 

Merger Arb Plays, 15% weight

ACF

DYN

FMMH

MFE

PSYS

SWSI

ATAC

PPCO

 

Macro Trades, 5% weight

Short MXN Peso

VXX trade

Puts on Long bond

 

 

Which one or two of the merger arb trades do you like best?  Please explain your VXX trade.

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Largest holdings are ata.to, brk.b, deo, ffh, ftp.to, gvc.to, jnj, je.un.to, v.  They comprise about 52% of my portfolio, in about equal amounts. When Cdn dollar weakens, my U.S. stocks benefit, and vice versa re stronger Cdn.

 

as a US citizen i've bought a few foreign stocks for the 1st time ever this year. i expect, tho i'm by no means savy about foreign currencies, the canadian dollar to appreciate against the dollar long term, so Cdn stocks make up the biggest part of my cross-border forays as far as % dollars invested. they are ftn.to, ffh (frfhf.pk), & ftp.to. you are the 1st person i've come across on a message board that also owns it, so cheers! i'm not sure tho how much Cdn dollar exposure i get from canadian co's doing lots of US business & holding US denominated assets. oh, can we say its the thought that counts?

 

also own 3 china co's: byddf.pk, born, & yong. and i plan to buy lre.l soon as soon as i get more time to read some of their annual reports & 10k's, especially in light of hearing from a couple of knowledgable board members here that they hold most of their assets in usd. i dont like the prospects for the british pound or the euro vs usd, bad as the usd's future looks in its own right.

 

 

i currently own about 20 stocks, which is more than i ever remember owning. last few years i owned half a dozen, give or take. of those sns, after merging with west, became well over 50% of portf. but biglari's out of left field comp scheme cured me of that kind of concentration in a hurry. on the bright side, he persuaded me into doing my part to help bring down the federal deficit!

 

others are iaac, vrx, clct, ebix, mfcaf, ttt, khdhf, luk, cbou, ll

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Which one or two of the merger arb trades do you like best?  Please explain your VXX trade.

 

Not to excited about any particular merger trades right now...those are all lower return trades.

 

I've been short VXX since 28.  (1) Vix is mean reverting, and it is not a matter of if it goes back to its historical average in teens, but it is a matter of WHEN. It will go to 15 again at some point. VIX of 30 is definitely much higher than historical average and unsustainable (2) VXX is long VIX futures.  Typically futures curve for VIX is upward sloping, and therefore every month when VXX roles its futures the ETF loses money.  Essentially, the ETF was designed to fail.

 

2nd trade I did on VXX involves just selling out-of-money calls each month.  If VIX jumps again I'll just role forward until it falls back down.

 

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Guest misterstockwell

CODI

HTH

ORH.a +.b

BAM

DIS

CYB

HCC

NVDA

VZ

PCBC

FFBCW

WRB.A

Arbs-UNCA, SWWC

Mutual Funds

MAPTX

MCHFX

TFCIX

and Chou America once they get their act together

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AXP - owned 10+ yrs; basis = $10

AES - owned 5+ yrs; basis = $2

DELL - owned 15+ yrs; basis = $1.25

BRK - owned 10+ yrs; basis = $30,000

C - owned 3+ yrs; basis = $20

JNJ    new position

KFT    new position

NLY    new position

KO    new position

PG    new position

T      new position

 

all new positions are primarily yield driven based on relatively low absolute PE's (Low P/B in case of NLY)

 

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Approximate order of size:

 

FFH - > 40%; ~ 13 years

 

Largish:

Rus.to > 10 yrs

Pwf.to - 3-4 years this time

ssw

fbk.to

ge

 

Smaller (not size distributed)

slf.to

bce.to

jnj

kft

ko

akt.a.to

cfx.un

cfp.to

pd.to

mtl.to > 5 years

hd

mfc

igm

rbs.pr.p - nyse

aet.un >5 years

pwt.un - long time

Rim - trading stock - last week - have held many times before

 

I haven't added anything new to me this year except akt.a - courtesy of woodstove.  Lately I have been trading in and out of the same group trying to lower my cost basis.  Works in Canada where there is no long term/short term trading rule.  My total dividend yield is about 4% depending on the day.

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Cash, FFH, PD, FBK (Deb + common), MEW.UN + 2 others we will not disclose at this point. MEW.UN recently sold itself to a competitor at a 100%+ gain, & all our positions are fully hedged.

 

Except for FFH, all are long term buy & holds. We expect each to at least double over the next 2-3 years, & generate a minimum compound ROE of 30%. FFH is a long term seasonal buy & hold on which we expect at least 20%.

 

15-25% in tax free/tax deferred accounts, in low quality equity, in the expectation of some precipitating event. Generally no more than 1 years expected return, & primarily practice in liquidity management. We essentially act as a market maker, & take the view that if we loose the entire investment, we will have recovered the $ loss/cash flow within 1 yr. Acceptable risk, comparable to the traditional practice of the old Lloyds names.

 

We have recently permanently withdrawn 40% of the portfolio as cash, to retire UK family mortgages. 1) A wise man should periodically withdraws chips from the casino, 2) Application of 'money as servant', & not master.

 

SD 

 

 

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International equities:

HCC

FFH

PVD

LZ

AKO.A

RLOG

BIP

BAP

CEDC

CPL

 

LEAPS (long only, to lock the number of shares my money in the Israeli market could buy.):

XLP

WMT

CLX

JNJ

CL

 

Israeli securities [CPI indexed corp. bonds, derivatives (both long and short), microcaps].

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Which one or two of the merger arb trades do you like best?  Please explain your VXX trade.

 

Not to excited about any particular merger trades right now...those are all lower return trades.

 

I've been short VXX since 28.  (1) Vix is mean reverting, and it is not a matter of if it goes back to its historical average in teens, but it is a matter of WHEN. It will go to 15 again at some point. VIX of 30 is definitely much higher than historical average and unsustainable (2) VXX is long VIX futures.  Typically futures curve for VIX is upward sloping, and therefore every month when VXX roles its futures the ETF loses money.  Essentially, the ETF was designed to fail.

 

2nd trade I did on VXX involves just selling out-of-money calls each month.  If VIX jumps again I'll just role forward until it falls back down.

 

 

 

Thanks.  Have been thinking for some time about the very same VXX trade for the same reasons.  However, I would only want to do this if I could minimize the unpleasant aspects of shorting.  Puts are the usual way we limit risk, but puts on VXX seem too pricey for us.  Your idea of selling out of the money calls on the forward month looks good.  Are they usually selling at about the same implied volatility as comparable puts?  Or are they not usually nearly as pricey? 

 

 

There is always the possibility the trade could go against a short position, but here as an index that is mean reverting, it seems that the range is much more definite than with a stock that can often go up 10 times or more with a short squeeze or bubble.    Could this risk be limited by sequestering the trade in a separate account that would limit the possible loss?  Or do all margin agreements make the account holder liable beyond what's in a particular account if the value of that account is insufficient to meet a margin call?  

 

The other question is practical , the availability of shares in the VXX  for shorting.  It seems like this would be a popular trade and that it might be difficult to borrow shares at a reasonable price. Or is this no problem with this ETF?

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