What companies do you currently own?

[Myth465]

Also to clarify with HERO and HAWK.

 

I have looked at buying leaps (lottery tickets) on them or shorting them. They have cash and will limp along for a while so a short seemed pointless. If I had to pick one I would short, and they are on my watch list to check my thesis. I think the rigs are old and crappy and will be last to go to work. I think Management is keen on empire building and wont scrap rigs until its not worth doing.

 

So I wait, and watch. HAWK has been getting alot of value investor interest.

[Smazz]

 

Rim - trading stock - last week - have held many times before

Al,

whats your current take on Rim? Ive never had it on my "investment" radar - just as a piece of interest type thing but see its trading somewhat like a "normal" company as premiums to sales and earnings etc etc but with no debt - WOW!

From the little I know I feel they have a bit of market share but this is REALLY out of my area of expertise (I dont even own a blackberry or Iphone HA)

 

I believe there was talk on Rimm in a thread here a while back but I think it was buried in a thread of a different subject?

 

Jim Balsillie has been unloading so many shares in the 80-60$ range it's quite scary. Aren't you affraid when the most knowleadgeable insider sells massively?

 

BeerBaron

 

 

1. I dont own any of the common

 

2. I will take your word for his selling shares but i havent looked into that and to make judgement youd have to ask why he is doing this. Many times when someone is as wealthy as he, he doesnt do this for personal $ under the mattress reasons. Oft times its for a charity that doesnt want to hold the shares etc. Or for other reasons. If he is offloading a good amount, knowing how public a figure he is somewhere must lay the reason no?

 

3. I would be more afraid of the technology aspect - its always scary to me and the main reason why I have never really been in a pure tech stock in any meaningful way. I do understand this may not be our daddys tech stock as its more a communication co.

 

The last time I was close to owning some tech was in the late 90s when Apple had a load of cash but were still tiny bro to MSFT - when Iphone and Ipad were mearly gleams in Jobbs eye.

 

[twacowfca]

just wondering if anyone owns anything in the UK? Is anyone (apart from me) based in the UK?

 

Lancashire Holdings is by far our biggest holding and keeps growing as they buy back shares and pay large dividends that are mostly reinvested.  Brit Insurance is our third largest holding, a takeout that we are starting to sell as they have recommended acceptance of Apollo's latest offer.  If the current price holds up, we should be out in a few days, if not, we will hold the remainder until the closing.  :)

[Uccmal]

Hadn't realized a thread had evolved on RIM.  In keeping with my style I try to buy when I think it is oversold and sell on rises.  I am mildly uncomfortable in getting stuck with it for awhile but not severely so.

 

I bought it before the recent earnings release.  At the time I felt it was trading cheaply relative to its cash flow, and PE, and its possible growth.  Rudimentary assessment at best.  It trades at a fraction of the multiple accorded Apple.  

 

I think that the market, and analysts, often mis-price RIM due to direct comparisons of what it offers to what Apple or Google offer.  The two are not directly comparable (tempted to say comparing Apples to Blackberries).  RIM provides two products, the device, and the network.  The device is easily duplicable.  I dont think the network is.  The recent hoopla involving India, and UAE shows this.  The RIM service is secure from most security issues, so much so, that many world leaders and CEOs use it.  So far the Android or the Iphone dont offer this.  If you dissected the statements from JPMorgan they stated that they would test drive I-phones provided the I-phone met security concerns, and the employees provided the phone at their own cost.

 

If you have ever dealt with IT departments at your places of employment you soon realize how stuck in their ways they are.  Everything has to be IT approved.  To get any non sanctioned software on your systems is next to impossible.  For such as fast evolving business change at the IT committee level is glacial, and expensive.  

 

It is my thesis that those who use RIM will not change easily.  In the interim RIM will sex up their toys for the GP.  

 

I draw all this with a caveat.  I would never, ever back up the truck on this stock.  No how, no way.  I just trade in and out.  And no, I dont do this with most stocks.  95% of my portfolio is medium/long term focussed.  

 

 

[Myth465]

I think its risky long term, but probably a good trade. My IT guy has an IPhone and mentioned a few years ago that they were looking at moving towards Windows Mobile or the Iphone. They were interested in dumping the BB server and the costs associated with it. I dont see a government doing that, but companies with 20,000 employees are thinking about it.

[PlanMaestro]

I believe it's the first time DJSP is mentioned on this board. I also hold DJSP and think it's cheap, and it's also a good hedge on job and economy won't be getting any better soon.

 

The question is and has always been "su casa es mi casa" Stein. It looks cheap but he worries me.

 

It is a model that works 2 years every 20, so it is a concern when the Rothman IPO is done at the pick of that 20 year cycle and you have an over promotional CEO. It looks just cashing out and a story stock.

 

Are real the stories that he is buying again?

[frog03]

Lancashire Holdings is by far our biggest holding and keeps growing as they buy back shares and pay large dividends that are mostly reinvested.

 

*********

At current prices, Lancashire Holdings trades about 10% above Q2 book value.  What do you consider a good entry price? Book value?

 

Thx

[twacowfca]

Lancashire Holdings is by far our biggest holding and keeps growing as they buy back shares and pay large dividends that are mostly reinvested.

 

*********

At current prices, Lancashire Holdings trades about 10% above Q2 book value.  What do you consider a good entry price? Book value?

 

Thx

 

With LRE it's helpful to estimate forward BV.  They typically grow BV six or seven percent in quarters that have no big cat losses, like this quarter.  Also, they continue to buy back shares aggressively; so their growth in FDBV/sh this quarter could be even higher. 

[jasonw1]

The question is and has always been "su casa es mi casa" Stein. It looks cheap but he worries me.

 

It is a model that works 2 years every 20, so it is a concern when the Rothman IPO is done at the pick of that 20 year cycle and you have an over promotional CEO. It looks just cashing out and a story stock.

 

Are real the stories that he is buying again?

 

DJSP looks like a mistake. Although the business is not the kind of business I like (not sustaintable, profit from "unfortunate" event, hated etc), I thought it's cheap enough to buy, but the halt in foreclosure by banks, law suit of questionable practices of the firm, Citi bank dropped it as service provider today, plus the CEO's lavish life style and "love" of money. All these should have been on my checklist before buying.

 

I exited all my position at a loss.

 

 

 

[Guest]

just wondering if anyone owns anything in the UK? Is anyone (apart from me) based in the UK?

 

Lancashire Holdings is by far our biggest holding and keeps growing as they buy back shares and pay large dividends that are mostly reinvested.  Brit Insurance is our third largest holding, a takeout that we are starting to sell as they have recommended acceptance of Apollo's latest offer.  If the current price holds up, we should be out in a few days, if not, we will hold the remainder until the closing.  :)

 

LCSHF on the pink sheets, right? Dividend yield of about 1.09%. What am i missing here?

[Myth465]

 

LCSHF on the pink sheets, right? Dividend yield of about 1.09%. What am i missing here?

 

Lol we all are trying to figure it out. I have found you get more and more comfortable holding it overtime  :D. Its getting close to a year for me. Hopefully they are still doing the same sort of thing in 3 years, and people are still asking the same sort of questions.

[bmichaud]

Only my second post on here but thought I'd pitch in...

 

Businesses - 97% of NAV

1. RIG - 44%

2. XOM - 17%

3. WFC - 11%

4. MCD/KFT/EXC - 8, 8, and 7%

5. HRB calls - 2%

 

Net Cash & Workouts - 3% of NAV

1. NOVL - larger than 3% b/c of some leverage

 

Averaged a 50-50 split between Business/Net C&W through June, July, and August, then took off shorts just before September rally. Not quite ready to put the shorts back on, but getting there. I follow these investment advisors out in Ohio (James Investment Research (JIR), jir-inc.com) as they provide some timely market research. I do not trade in and out of my core holdings, but will manage exposure via short positions, and I find the JIR folks helpful in that regard. Caterpillar is a core short I use, and it is currently trading just off its all time high - good protection if the market takes a whack.

 

Again, going back to JIR research, they have called the rally in treasuries to perfection - their indicators are finally starting to weaken for bonds, which I have been waiting for to start moving into the TBT treasury short.

 

 

 

 

[DCG]

Below are my current holdings. My portfolio hasn't changed a whole lot this year; sold a couple companies (XOM and FDX), bought MA, and added to a few holdings. While a few of these are trading for higher valuations than what many of you probably look for on this board, I bought those companies at lower prices. I don't have the exact percentages, but here are my current holdings in order of weighting:

 

AAPL

FRFHF

BRK/B

BWLD

GOOG

V (considering lightening up on V)

WFC

GMCR

CMG

DECK

USB

AMZN

MA

BAC

 

Options: CSCO Jan 12 calls

              BAC: Jan 13 calls

[twacowfca]

LRE

 

FFH

 

(workout)

 

Plus a ton of cash :)

 

[link01]

LRE

 

FFH

 

(workout)

 

Plus a ton of cash :)

 

plus tons of cash? is this based on your reading of the behavior of the monetary base, or something else?

 

for myself, i have to say i've never had a year where i've done more trading in & out of positions, & sometimes back in again. its partially been a result of the extreme volatility....but its also been a function of the macro landscape which i've been paying more attention to than ever before.

 

long cash & 4 bond mutual funds ( a 1st for me, both the bonds & the mutual funds)

 

and ffh, lre, wina, nrci, vrsk, kw, atri

[twacowfca]

LRE

 

FFH

 

(workout)

 

Plus a ton of cash :)

 

plus tons of cash? is this based on your reading of the behavior of the monetary base, or something else?

 

for myself, i have to say i've never had a year where i've done more trading in & out of positions, & sometimes back in again. its partially been a result of the extreme volatility....but its also been a function of the macro landscape which i've been paying more attention to than ever before.

 

long cash & 4 bond mutual funds ( a 1st for me, both the bonds & the mutual funds)

 

and ffh, lre, wina, nrci, vrsk, kw, atri

 

The monetary base has leveled off in recent months.  Not bearish enough for us to buy puts which are pricey now, but somewhat bearish in that the gush of free money that supports the market has reached a limit because interest rates practically don't go below zero.  Also the deleveraging in Europe can be contagious. 

 

Cash is king when markets melt down. What's happening now is a replay of the 1930's and 1940's, but with deflation moderated and eventually to be superseded by inflation, thanks to our fiscal and monetary authorities.

[Hawk4value]

I agree that deflation will moderate due to Fed and ECB action, but evantually will be superseded by inflation. At that point interest rates will rise.  Does it necessarily follow that stock markets then will get hit with a second leg down, or will an improving economy propel markets upward??  Or is stagflation another sceanario??

[twacowfca]

I agree that deflation will moderate due to Fed and ECB action, but evantually will be superseded by inflation. At that point interest rates will rise.  Does it necessarily follow that stock markets then will get hit with a second leg down, or will an improving economy propel markets upward??  Or is stagflation another sceanario??

 

Stock market values, especially in real dollars can be just as much negatively impacted by substantial inflation as deflation.  But during inflation, growth stocks are hit especially hard because the discount rate for future earnings increases greatly, making stocks without much distributable earnings relatively expensive to own, especially when bought using borrowed money.

[Josh4580]

Below are my current holdings. My portfolio hasn't changed a whole lot this year; sold a couple companies (XOM and FDX), bought MA, and added to a few holdings. While a few of these are trading for higher valuations than what many of you probably look for on this board, I bought those companies at lower prices. I don't have the exact percentages, but here are my current holdings in order of weighting:

 

AAPL

FRFHF

BRK/B

BWLD

GOOG

V (considering lightening up on V)

WFC

GMCR

CMG

DECK

USB

AMZN

MA

BAC

 

Options: CSCO Jan 12 calls

              BAC: Jan 13 calls

 

Great portfolio! DCG this portfolio seems like you buy the highest quality companies in the US.  How do you approach valuation on some of these stocks like CMG & DECK.  What has been your sell discipline?  Also are you concerned about GMCR patent expirations coming up?

[DCG]

Below are my current holdings. My portfolio hasn't changed a whole lot this year; sold a couple companies (XOM and FDX), bought MA, and added to a few holdings. While a few of these are trading for higher valuations than what many of you probably look for on this board, I bought those companies at lower prices. I don't have the exact percentages, but here are my current holdings in order of weighting:

 

AAPL

FRFHF

BRK/B

BWLD

GOOG

V (considering lightening up on V)

WFC

GMCR

CMG

DECK

USB

AMZN

MA

BAC

 

Options: CSCO Jan 12 calls

              BAC: Jan 13 calls

 

Great portfolio! DCG this portfolio seems like you buy the highest quality companies in the US.  How do you approach valuation on some of these stocks like CMG & DECK.  What has been your sell discipline?  Also are you concerned about GMCR patent expirations coming up?

 

When I bought DECK it was selling for around 13x earnings, and I sold close to half my position earlier this year. I think it has the growth to support it's P/E, which is currently just under 16X 2012 estimates. I think they still have a lot of room to grow the UGGs brand, especially if they can make a dent in the men's market.

 

I'm not buying any more CMG at current prices, but haven't sold any either. I think they still have a lot of room for growth, especially internationally.

 

I am a bit worried about the GMCR patent expirations, but think they've built up a strong brand, and like that they're starting to focus more on B2B K-Cup sales. I'm also not buying ay more at the current price.

[Buckeye]

The funny thing about DECK, that any Cali kid can tell you, is that UGG's were originally worn by the surfer

guys who had cold and wet feet.  I guess once they made them popular and the girls started wearing them

they lost interest.  We should be trying to find out what the surfers are wearing now :)

[Valuebo]

DCG, could you elaborate on your AMZN and AAPL thesis?

 

AMZN is a great business but valuation seems totally out of whack? To me it looks like the perfect candidate to trade sideways for the next 5-10 years. The same might apply to CMG & GMCR but my knowledge is very limited on both companies. I understand you bought them at lower prices but what is keeping you from selling at current prices? Just curious!

 

Where do you see value in AAPL? It is cheap but I am afraid that not much has to happen for it to take a dive over the longer term. Do you believe they will remain first movers and pure innovators over the long haul and how do you think they can keep this culture intact? Or is it more like a short term play?

 

Thanks in advance. :)

[DCG]

DCG, could you elaborate on your AMZN and AAPL thesis?

 

AMZN is a great business but valuation seems totally out of whack? To me it looks like the perfect candidate to trade sideways for the next 5-10 years. The same might apply to CMG & GMCR but my knowledge is very limited on both companies. I understand you bought them at lower prices but what is keeping you from selling at current prices? Just curious!

 

Where do you see value in AAPL? It is cheap but I am afraid that not much has to happen for it to take a dive over the longer term. Do you believe they will remain first movers and pure innovators over the long haul and how do you think they can keep this culture intact? Or is it more like a short term play?

 

Thanks in advance. :)

 

Regarding AAPL, You have arguably the best run company on the planet selling for 11x conservative 2012 estimates and around $76 Billion in cash. The long-term future is tough to predict in tech, but I think AAPL's product pipeline is strong for at least the next 2-3 years. The talent pool at AAPL is incredibly deep. Even if their level of innovation takes a hit due to the departure of Steve Jobs, I am confident they can still produce better products than their competition. As far as keeping the culture in tact, that's something every company constantly has to work at. Tim Cook has been running the company for much of the last 2 or so years and has done a great job. And Apple is rarely the 'first mover'. They don't invent products. They greatly improve products and make them easy to use. I think they'll be able to continue to do that. The market is treating Apple like it has no growth at all. They can also potentially use their cash to pay a dividend or make acquisitions if the right opportunity came along.

 

AMZN is quite pricey and is a small holding in my IRA, and I would love to buy more at a cheaper price. It is nearly impossible for online retailers to compete with Amazon. They've built an excellent global distribution system (although it came at a cost) and now have the scale to beat nearly everyone in price. They've excelled at nearly every business they've entered, and have made good acquisitions. I think they will get to the point in the next few years where their operational costs will be reduced and their profit margins will increase. I think they are going to continue to take market share from other eCommerce companies across nearly every industry. The stock may easily trade sideways for a while, but I think their earnings will be significantly more than they are today in 10 years from now.

[twacowfca]

LRE

 

FFH

 

(workout)

 

Plus a ton of cash :)

 

plus tons of cash? is this based on your reading of the behavior of the monetary base, or something else?

 

for myself, i have to say i've never had a year where i've done more trading in & out of positions, & sometimes back in again. its partially been a result of the extreme volatility....but its also been a function of the macro landscape which i've been paying more attention to than ever before.

 

long cash & 4 bond mutual funds ( a 1st for me, both the bonds & the mutual funds)

 

and ffh, lre, wina, nrci, vrsk, kw, atri

 

The monetary base has leveled off in recent months.  Not bearish enough for us to buy puts which are pricey now, but somewhat bearish in that the gush of free money that supports the market has reached a limit because interest rates practically don't go below zero.  Also the deleveraging in Europe can be contagious. 

 

Cash is king when markets melt down. What's happening now is a replay of the 1930's and 1940's, but with deflation moderated and eventually to be superseded by inflation, thanks to our fiscal and monetary authorities.

 

Put most of our large cash pile into BRK.  Couldn't resist the free perpetual put with an increasing strike price.  That put would have cost about one third the price of the stock if any options writer had been willing to write it.  :)

 

It's interesting that after trading through unusual situations over the last three years, we are back to basics with almost all our funds in very good long term hands! 

[ourkid8]

I have made a few changes to my portfolio:

 

PM, FFH.to, TD.to, CNR.to, JNJ, Chou Associates, BRK.B, KFT, Chou Asia, WFC, USB, FTR, SD, CASH, IPL-UN.to and ATPG.  (My top 4 positions is about 54% of my portfolio - PM, FFH.to, TD.to and CNR.to)

 

I am actually surprised that there are hardly any individuals who hold Tobacco companies in their portfolio.  Tobacco companies in general have long term track record of delivering above average returns while being dedicated to creating shareholder value by distributing a large portion of their earnings via Dividends and share buy-backs. 

 

Thanks,

 

S

 

JNJ

USB

WFC

PM

KFT

SD

CNR.to

FFH.to

TD.to

 

I know these are not companies but I also own the following 3 funds:  Chou Associates, Chou Asia and Mackenzie Cundill Recovery 'C' 

 

Thanks,

 

S