Christopher1

Eating at Osteria Francescana is an awesome experience. Usually you need to reserve a couple of months in advance. Francesco Bottura restaurant based on some expert review is the second best place to eat in the whole world.

They forecast a substantial decline of quarterly cash expenditures for intangible asset purchases from fiscal Q3 2015. From last CC: "Intangible asset purchases were $234 million in the quarter, which consist primarily of payments relating to amended or renewed license agreements. These licensing agreements, of which the majority of the remaining value of approximately $500 million is reflected in our purchase commitments, will be completed by Q3 of fiscal 2015. As a result, we expect the quarterly cash expenditures to decline substantially at that time. While we may enter into new licensing agreements, the lower handset volumes will likely significantly reduce the cash outlay, resulting in additional liquidity."

I don't have any clue from a valuation perspective, I prefer to study and invest in US banks, but I can provide some context based on the experience accumulated working in the Italian Banking practice of a Consulting firm: - In Italy we are living the third recession in the last decade, the economic outcome is worst than the WW2 period. So revenues are extremely difficult to grow both NIM (due to loan volume contraction) and Fee; adding a growing cost of risk and acceptable levels of profitability are still very difficult to achieve; - Starting from 2008/2009 banks have invested predominantly in projects with a focus on cost and RWA reduction. Unions are very strong in the Italian banking sector and changes are very slow and diffcult to implement. BNL the Italian subsidary of BNPP seems to be the best one from an efficiency point of view (C/I in the low 50s); - It's prudent to avoid the "regional" banks (Banche Popolari), too many uncertainties and management heavily involved with politics. For such banks shareloders come last, behind unions and management personal interest. The lastest example of value destroyed by incompetent management is Banca Carige, but you can add to the list: Banca Popolare di Lodi, Banca Popolare di Milano and some other smaller banks. - What happened to Monte dei Paschi is really sad, the old management was exetrmely incompetent because selected by politics for local interest. From first hand experience I can say that new management is a better one, I had some interactions with the current chairman and the COO was my former boss I know him pretty well. Anyway they have been left with a very bad hand. - UCG and ISP seems to be the best managed public banks, but they too are involved in support to dubious local capitalism iniatives for interest different than shareholders value creation (i.e. Alitalia, Fondiaria and Ligresti familiy, Zalesky, etc.). Hope it can helps.

Potential 68$ mil. loss in 4Q due to accounts margined. Full disclosure: I'm an IB customer Extract from Q3 Conf. Call: "This leads me to address the recent event that will likely result in a charge to the earnings in the fourth quarter. While we have a solid track record for minimizing customer and firm losses, thanks to our automated risk management controls, we are not completely immune to swift and unusual market movements. A group of our brokerage customers took a large position in four stocks listed on the Singapore Stock Exchange. And in early October within a very short timeframe, these stocks lost over 90% of their volume. The accounts were margined and we were able to liquidate only a small part of the position. The accounts are currently in deficit to the extent of approximately $68 million. We believe that the customers have substantial assets independent of the companies involved and we are currently organizing our legal team to collect on these debts. We are currently also in the process of modifying our margin lending methodology to limit the chances of similar events happening in the future"

If my understanding is correct all investments (partial ownership) will be managed through the Lion Fund I & II. Sardar bought back the General Partner ownership, so he will earn the 25% above 6% hurdle rate, with no maximum cap. Moreover the old incentive agreement will be applicable only to the book value of the operating subsidaries (excluding the Lion Fund). Full disclosure: BH is 5% of my PTF.

From J. M. Keynes "Memorandum for the Estates Committe, King's College, Cambridge, 8 May 1938": 'In fact the chief lesson I draw from the above results is the opposite of what I set out to show when, what is now nearly 20 years ago, I first persuaded the College to invest in ordinary shares. At that time I believed that profit could be made by what was called a credit cycle policy, namely by holding such shares in slumps and disposing of them in booms...Since that time there may have been more numerous and more violent general fluctuations than in any previous period. We have indeed done well by purchasing particular shares at times when their prices were greatly depressed; but we have not proved able to take much advantage of a general systematic movement out of and into ordinary shares as a whole at different phases of the trade cycle.'

It says 5578 fold increase. The source is Paul Kagan Associates that in a different article states that through 1989, spin off included, returns are 91000%. http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/fortune_archive/1989/07/31/72300/index.htm

~+17%, biggest losers FTP and EBIX

giofranchi is too kind :) I strongly recommend Cable Cowboys. There are some good insights about John Malone way of thinking and you can have a nice overview of the cable industry history and the relationship among its main players (i.e. Murdoch, Ergen, Roberts, Turner, etc.). Moreover it helped me to have more info about the shareholder value creation that Mr. Malone delivered first at TCI from 1973 to 1999, and then at Liberty from 1991 to 1993 (info about Liberty post 1995 are available on its website). One more curiosity, when Mr. Malone started working at McKinsey he shared the desk with Lou Gerstner, and years later the IBM board offered the CEO position to Malone before hiring Mr. Gerstner. Hope it helps, Christopher1

Biglari borrowed money through the subsidary "stake and shake operations" and then made a dividend to the parent company. So the loan is collateralized only by sns operations assets (inventory, real estate if they are non compliant with some covenant, etc.). Only 300k shares of the more than 4mil. shares of CBRL have been acquired through sns operations. The financial covenant about maximum total leverage ratio and a minimum consolidated fixed charge coverage ratio are applicable only to the subsidary and the loan is non recourse to the parent. Hope it helps.

The loan and the revolver agreed with fifth third bank and used for acquiring cbrl shares are collateralized by the assets of "stake and shake operations" subsidary and not the parent company BH. The vast majority of the cbrl shares have been acquired by the parent, so the possibility of a margin call is very remote.

Dakshana 2011 annual report: http://www.dakshana.org/AR11.pdf

A bit outdated but interesting interview with Thomas Cook India Managing Director Madhavan Menon: http://www.livemint.com/2008/04/26000228/Madhavan-Menon--A-man-for-cha.html An interesting highlight about his character: “Well, I like the work. If you ask my wife, she will tell you that I am also married to Thomas Cook India,” he chuckles. “But, I do take a two-week vacation every year.”

Rome, Italy

I'm also moving to the nat gas sector, focusing on the lowest cost producers. Other than some name already mentioned on this board like Contango and Peyto in which I already have a position, I'm particularly intrigued by UPL. They seem to have an all in cost even lover than the former two which are already best in class. Moreover Darren Gee (Peyto CEO) mentioned UPL and Michael Watford in his December report with quite positive tone.

I read the SEC filings, technically he is not selling but distributing shares of AZO and AN pro-rata for redemptions. Couriously, ot his three biggest holdings, it seems that he decided to not distribute SHLD shares, they are only moved through the different entities for re-organizations.

Don't forget that also the coo Brady comes from the LUK circle, He was the ceo of resortquest.

Around 14,5$/share 416,598 shares for an aggregate purchase price of 6,050,000$, as usual 50/50 The Lion Fund/Biglari Holdings http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1334426/000092189511000896/sc13d07428007_04292011.htm

It seems that Sardar activism has some effects also on Penn Miller: Penn Millers Holding Corporation Announces Review of Strategic Alternatives http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20110815006468/en/Penn-Millers-Holding-Corporation-Announces-Review-Strategic

Please, consider that the earnings already accrue the compensation of sardar so maybe you are double counting. Moreover the main partner of the LF is BH itself, from last 10q I remember its proquota of BH shares is around 100k. Best

I'm sorry but currently I've not access to bloomberg. But from valubond through yahoo I could retrive the following move for 10y muni: Aaa about 45bp Aa about 35bp A about 100bp

Impressive the price movement on 10y us treasuries. Around 70bp of yield decrease as of today from 30/6 I think the sensitivity analysis of ffh bond portfolio is aroung 1.1 bn gain for a 100bp decrease in yield. This is a raw calculation but maybe ffh is sitting on a 8-9% bv gain. As usual Brian Bradstreet is making a boatload of money for ffh shareholders. Best

Short letter suggesting to read the book "Think and grow rich" by Napoleon Hill: http://www.dakshana.org/Letter%20to%20Dakshana%20scholars.pdf

Notes posted on the MF Leucadia board: http://boards.fool.com/semi-ot-leucadia-berkadia-meeting-notes-29303459.aspx

Annual shareholders letter is out: Enjoy! https://materials.proxyvote.com/Approved/527288/20110321/AR_86340.PDF