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Thanks guys. Sounds like Paarslaars and Longnose just hold through the pain believing their conviction will be rewarded at some point? I do believe the stock I’m holding is an industry leader and quite profitable. I have no reason to doubt that leadership will not hit their revenue goals in the stated timeline and analyst estimates for when they do are so much higher than price today. Sigh. I guess I’ll start praying too.

Thanks makes sense. By volatility do you mean daily/weekly moves of several percentage points or higher? So a far OTM call at say 300 could be good if Adobe all of a sudden just continually starts to grind up - slow or fast doesn’t matter right if it’s without many pullbacks?

As a newbie to options, can you please share why this strike? I’m seeing open options interest for the 200s much higher on IB. Does that affect liquidity or not really? Just trying to understand. Also is Adobe very liquid for options trading vs some other SaaS companies?

Hi Gents, I would greatly appreciate some advise on helping me manage a non-diversified portfolio from the experienced folks here. I am fairly new to investing and have a 30ish year investment horizon for context. Not by choice, but I ended up with a >50% portfolio allocation in a single SaaS stock (large cap). It lagged the S&P over past couple of years and is taking quite the beating this year along with the entire sector. My general comfort level around a single stock is a 1-2% allocation, and I think I've seen people recommend up to 10% or so typically? My general strategy is holding everything long-term and I'm mostly in indices outside of this one position - and some very small "learning" positions in individual names. However, it's discouraging trying to track annualized returns with this one stock weighing everything down so heavily. Part of me thinks I should have sold and moved the funds to an index some time ago, and part of me doesn't want to take the loss and just hold for years to come. Stock investing seems hard from a mental point of view and I'm still learning on how to manage my emotions. The recent SaaS dump is tipping the scales a little and I'm just looking for some guidance from brighter minds. Thanks guys.

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That’s a gift many don’t have, congrats

Incredible timing if this starts a significant correction. What made you say it’s today vs yesterday or Monday? Some posters here just seem to get the timing bang on, please share some of your wisdom

For those of us less familiar with the Kennedy era and stocks at that time, what exactly are suggesting by “Kennedy moment” in the context of Mr. Market?

Thank you, today is looking better than Friday to add

My personal opinion on software vs AI for what little it’s worth is this: AI may help smaller companies build software that matches what the big boys already have and maybe even better by adding novel features more quickly vs having to go through all the red tape at a large company. However, because SaaS customers are often enterprise and not B2C (and this is key), I can’t see a reality where customers stop doing business with say someone like Salesforce to switch to a half priced AI-native alternative (even if you assume that the switch is frictionless). In enterprise SaaS things can go wrong. When businesses depend on the tools for critical business processes (think ERPs, inventory management systems, etc) they want to be dealing with a reputable SaaS vendor, not a startup. I am of the opinion that startups cannot support medium/large enterprise customers nearly as well and large companies can. Then come issues of cybersecurity, uptime/reliability… At the end of the day, SaaS is not THAT expensive even at $1M/year for a business worth billions. Even taking that expense down to $100k/year shouldn’t make a material difference to quarterly earnings unless I’m really missing something here? My assumption here is that most large SaaS companies would have the bulk of their revenue coming from mid-market/enterprise accounts who would not trade cost savings for vendor reputation, supports, security and uptime. If the core base of customers is SMB, I would think differently about the risk to a SaaS company in this new environment.

They announced a major acquisition to the tune of ~3.5B, largest in their history I believe. The sell off could have been a reaction to that?

It seems the Exxon exec is putting his reputation on the line making predictions such as these - both in terms of dollar range and approximate timeline, all based on depleting inventory levels. I don’t think he would saying that publicly unless Exxon actually believed this? Interestingly, at least in this excerpt, he doesn’t mention the SOH reopening timeframe and ongoing negotiations. Wouldn’t that be a counteracting factor? It seems a lot of oil volatility in recent oil peaks and troughs has been speculative, and most strongly correlated with tone/press releases of the ongoing negotiations? Today the negotiation statements make it seem as if the deal is almost inked? What do you gents think?

Thank you for the reassurance SD. I’m just a lowly newbie trying to learn the ways.

This is encouraging, thank you for the additional data point!

Is anyone else thinking of unwinding their oil exposure/has already? Seeing the Feb futures coming back down over last few days - is the party over?