Are we in a bubble?

[gfp]

1 minute ago, Blake Hampton said:

A fiscal crisis would make 2008 look like a walk in the park.

Cash is not trash.

 

What are you gonna do when your stopped clock is finally right one day?  You won't be able to go shopping with both hands out because you will have no experience actually investing successfully in the stock market and won't know what to buy or how to buy it!

 

The time to build that experience is today so you are ready on judgement day or whatever you are predicting.  

[thowed]

I am trying to tweak my portfolio to be more 'what if I'm wrong'.

 

As I'm naturally cautious, this means I will have to buy more risk - it feels crazy, but...

 

WIIW?

 

And being cautious for the past 17 years has been wrong.

 

Being too opinionated is the biggest issue, unless you're Druckenmiller etc.

[Libs]

55 minutes ago, gfp said:

 

What are you gonna do when your stopped clock is finally right one day?  You won't be able to go shopping with both hands out because you will have no experience actually investing successfully in the stock market and won't know what to buy or how to buy it!

 

The time to build that experience is today so you are ready on judgement day or whatever you are predicting.  

 

This.

 

Build your investing  muscles now.

 

Trading 60 cent dollars for 25 cent dollars is where you crush the indexes. This happens in panics. But you have to put in the work ( and pain) now.

 

 

[Lazarus]

1 hour ago, gfp said:

 

What are you gonna do when your stopped clock is finally right one day?  

 

He will think that the market has further to crash and will continue to horde his cash. Blake is Dunning-Kruger personified but he doesn't realize it and is too stubborn to learn. 

 

From the bottom of my heart, Blake - give up on trying to outsmart the market, and even give up on stock picking. Instead, just follow the Boggleheads / John Bogle approach: DCA into an index fund, ignore the news, and focus on your career instead. That's what Warren Buffett suggests for the average investor and you claim to love Buffett's advice. In 30 years, you'll be decently wealthy and you'll thank yourself. 

[Spooky]

5 hours ago, Blake Hampton said:

A fiscal crisis would make 2008 look like a walk in the park.

Cash is not trash.

 

Let's say you're right and there is a fiscal crisis in the US which leads to hyperinflation like in Argentina or the Weimar Republic - you certainly do not want to be in cash or bonds. You want to own real assets like real estate or companies that have pricing power. 

[Paarslaars]

Fidelity lowers the minimum requirement for SpaceX IPO from 500k to 2k... man retail is going to get screwed. IPO at 100x sales and mom & pop investors can serve as exit liquidity.

Edited 19 hours ago by Paarslaars

[Parsad]

7 hours ago, Lazarus said:

 

He will think that the market has further to crash and will continue to horde his cash. Blake is Dunning-Kruger personified but he doesn't realize it and is too stubborn to learn. 

 

From the bottom of my heart, Blake - give up on trying to outsmart the market, and even give up on stock picking. Instead, just follow the Boggleheads / John Bogle approach: DCA into an index fund, ignore the news, and focus on your career instead. That's what Warren Buffett suggests for the average investor and you claim to love Buffett's advice. In 30 years, you'll be decently wealthy and you'll thank yourself. 

 

Blake don't listen to these knuckleheads!  You know as soon as you invest half of your cash, the market will crash...Murphy's Law supersedes rational investing.  And the big one is coming!  Cheers!

 

[Parsad]

You start to see stuff like this and you know things are getting frothy!  Cheers!

 

https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/crypto/articles/see-inside-5-99-million-090701953.html

[frommi]

Today is the day the bubble bursts, be ready!
 

[Sweet]

6 hours ago, Parsad said:

 

Blake don't listen to these knuckleheads!  You know as soon as you invest half of your cash, the market will crash...Murphy's Law supersedes rational investing.  And the big one is coming!  Cheers!

 

 

Blake should just actually do that, hedge himself.  Do 50% stocks, and keep the 50% cash for the crash he believes is coming.    If he is wrong he might still be making money, if he is right he has 50% to invest at bargain prices.  Decent compromise.

[Lazarus]

Even when the crash comes he won't invest since the headlines are scary and "it will crash further". How much did he invest in the 2020 crash?

[Parsad]

8 hours ago, frommi said:

Today is the day the bubble bursts, be ready!
 

 

If it doesn't happen today, it could be tomorrow!  My broken clock is only right twice a week...not twice a day!  Cheers!

[Lazarus]

Yep, your money is safer hidden under your mattress. It's the only way.

[Parsad]

Just now, Lazarus said:

Even when the crash comes he won't invest since the headlines are scary and "it will crash further". How much did he invest in the 2020 crash?

 

Yes, that is the psychological problem.  If the market collapses 25%...will he think...I'll wait till it collapses 50%!  His views are quite bleak, so a 25% drawdown is probably not the bottom if your perception of valuations demands a much greater drop.  The problem is that no one know where the bottom is and I do know of many people who missed out on the GFC and Pandemic crashes, because they kept waiting.  Cheers!

[frommi]

5 minutes ago, Parsad said:

 

If it doesn't happen today, it could be tomorrow!  My broken clock is only right twice a week...not twice a day!  Cheers!

Of course, monday is black monday!

[Parsad]

1 minute ago, Lazarus said:

Yep, your money is safer hidden under your mattress. It's the only way.

 

While I don't agree completely with Blake's views...I tend to put money to work as markets drop, not expecting a total collapse, but averaging down if things do continue to get ugly...I do get comfort with holding large amounts of cash until I can put it to work. 

 

I think Blake needs to change that other half of his mindset...not putting money to work when opportunities do present themselves.  But if you are extremely pessimistic, you tend to ignore opportunities waiting for the Big Crash that may come or never come!  Cheers!

[Parsad]

Just now, frommi said:

Of course, monday is black monday!

 

Can you imagine if it was...that would suck!  Unless you have lots of cash on hand or can average down rapidly.  Then it's like Christmas!  Cheers!

[frommi]

10 minutes ago, Parsad said:

 

Can you imagine if it was...that would suck!  Unless you have lots of cash on hand or can average down rapidly.  Then it's like Christmas!  Cheers!

I am hedged, i welcome those days. I only lose if my stock selection sucks, my currency runs against me and the market doesnt tank. Like last year

Edited 15 hours ago by frommi

[73 Reds]

14 minutes ago, Parsad said:

 

While I don't agree completely with Blake's views...I tend to put money to work as markets drop, not expecting a total collapse, but averaging down if things do continue to get ugly...I do get comfort with holding large amounts of cash until I can put it to work. 

 

I think Blake needs to change that other half of his mindset...not putting money to work when opportunities do present themselves.  But if you are extremely pessimistic, you tend to ignore opportunities waiting for the Big Crash that may come or never come!  Cheers!

Why is it hard for some folks to strike a balance between invested assets and investable cash?  Or adopt the Buffett approach whereas some invested assets throw off enough cash that there is a perpetual stream of cash flow available to invest?  

[Lazarus]

27 minutes ago, Parsad said:

 

While I don't agree completely with Blake's views...I tend to put money to work as markets drop, not expecting a total collapse, but averaging down if things do continue to get ugly...I do get comfort with holding large amounts of cash until I can put it to work. 

 

I think Blake needs to change that other half of his mindset...not putting money to work when opportunities do present themselves.  But if you are extremely pessimistic, you tend to ignore opportunities waiting for the Big Crash that may come or never come!  Cheers!

 

Sorry, I have to strongly disagree - at his age, and given his general pessimistic nature, he shouldn't hold large amounts of cash waiting for opportunities. He's young and has 30-plus years of investing ahead of him. He should be 100% invested - markets end up ahead over any sort of timeline like that, usually by a very large amount. At his age, waiting around for great opportunities is just a form of market timing, a notoriously bad idea. For him, it's much better to just get in the market 100% and continue to DCA. This is even more true given his pessimistic nature, which is a huge handicap in the long-term investing game.

 

But I've seen enough of his posts to realize that he thinks he knows better, that everyone who tells him this exact same message are dumber than him, and he won't listen. 

 

Edited 14 hours ago by Lazarus
clarifying

[Malmqky]

31 minutes ago, Lazarus said:

 

Sorry, I have to strongly disagree - at his age, and given his general pessimistic nature, he shouldn't hold large amounts of cash waiting for opportunities. He's young and has 30-plus years of investing ahead of him. He should be 100% invested - markets end up ahead over any sort of timeline like that, usually by a very large amount. At his age, waiting around for great opportunities is just a form of market timing, a notoriously bad idea. For him, it's much better to just get in the market 100% and continue to DCA. This is even more true given his pessimistic nature, which is a huge handicap in the long-term investing game.

 

But I've seen enough of his posts to realize that he thinks he knows better, that everyone who tells him this exact same message are dumber than him, and he won't listen. 

 

The problem is that even if he is right, there’s a high chance the music plays for decades still.

 

If he’s right and everything blows up in 35 years, he’s still going to come out far behind than if he was investing that whole time in equities, etc.

 

If he’s wrong, there is nothing to prove it. So it’ll be 35 years later and he’s still waiting for the blow-up, and has missed out on millions.

Macro stuff like this is too hard.

 

His whole thesis is un-investable because of this.

[Spooky]

35 minutes ago, Lazarus said:

 

Sorry, I have to strongly disagree - at his age, and given his general pessimistic nature, he shouldn't hold large amounts of cash waiting for opportunities. He's young and has 30-plus years of investing ahead of him. He should be 100% invested - markets end up ahead over any sort of timeline like that, usually by a very large amount. At his age, waiting around for great opportunities is just a form of market timing, a notoriously bad idea. For him, it's much better to just get in the market 100% and continue to DCA. This is even more true given his pessimistic nature, which is a huge handicap in the long-term investing game.

 

But I've seen enough of his posts to realize that he thinks he knows better, that everyone who tells him this exact same message are dumber than him, and he won't listen. 

 

+1. This is the right advice.

[Red Lion]

10 hours ago, Parsad said:

 

Blake don't listen to these knuckleheads!  You know as soon as you invest half of your cash, the market will crash...Murphy's Law supersedes rational investing.  And the big one is coming!  Cheers!

 

It always crashes after I invest the second half of my cash. 

[Cor]

10 hours ago, frommi said:

Today is the day the bubble bursts, be ready!
 

Incredible timing if this starts a significant correction. What made you say it’s today vs yesterday or Monday? 
 

Some posters here just seem to get the timing bang on, please share some of your wisdom 

[Intelligent_Investor]

Probably going to try and buy some SpaceX puts on IPO.