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[Poll & Discussion] CofB&F members' returns for 2025 [Pre tax, and after fees, commision etc.]

John Hjorth

By John Hjorth
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[Poll & Discussion] CofB&F members' returns for 2025 [Pre tax, and after fees, commision etc.]  

126 members have voted

  1. 1. 1. What is your return for 2025?

    • Return > 120%
      4
    • Return > 100% AND Return = OR < 120%
      2
    • Return > 90% AND Return = OR < 100%
      1
    • Return > 80% AND Return = OR < 90%
      0
    • Return > 70% AND Return = OR < 80%
      0
    • Return > 60% AND Return = OR < 70%
      2
    • Return > 55% AND Return = OR < 60%
      1
    • Return > 50% AND Return = OR < 55%
      3
    • Return > 45% AND Return = OR < 50%
      8
    • Return > 40% AND Return = OR < 45%
      6
    • Return > 35% AND Return = OR < 40%
      8
    • Return > 30% AND Return = OR < 35%
      15
    • Return > 25% AND Return = OR < 30%
      10
    • Return > 20% AND Return = OR < 25%
      26
    • Return > 15% AND Return = OR < 20%
      14
    • Return > 10% AND Return = OR < 15%
      15
    • Return > 5% AND Return = OR < 10%
      3
    • Return > 0% AND Return = OR < 5%
      4
    • Return > -10% AND Return = OR < 0%
      3
    • Return = OR < -10%
      1

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DooDiligence Grand Master

DooDiligence

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:

 

Jeff [ @DooDiligence ],

 

Sure, misery loves company, - indeed!

 

That said, I'm still up quite a lot in this stock and company, after going beserk buying back in the autumn 2016, when the rodeo bull last time bucked. And the received dividends since starting building the position has been a good contributor, too.

 

I've learned more about Novo Nordisk in the past year than I ever knew back in 2016. This new found knowledge may or may not equate to similar gains but I'm hopeful. The pipeline is important to watch but if you can't scale production of what you've developed (at a good margin), it's no good. We also re-learned that science projects will be incubated at the Foundation until they're commercially viable.

Malmqky Mentor

Malmqky

Posted
Posted (edited)

About 32% if Fidelity is accurate.

 

Like the last half decade, mainly due to luck (buying Google at $150 and the stock re-rating quickly, special situations working in a timely manner, etc). And of course, Fairfax.

Edited by Malmqky
Luke Grand Master

Luke

Posted
Posted (edited)
42 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:

Luke [ @Luke ],

 

While I'm doing my best not to fade away, I look - impressed! - at this  [😉] :

 

image.thumb.png.1f271d04c992ef372418a962dbcb06fe.png

yeah my 3 year track record is brutal - im up more than 100% thanks due to fairfax mainly...couldnt have had the conviction without this board! 🙂

 

and i am also trying to be more responsible and cutting down the margin slowly...i still have some tiny tesla and palantir shorts that i kind of like. i sold the nvidia short at like 5% gain because i think its a harder bet than tesla and palantir...we will see how 2026 treats us!

 

But guys! Tencent also delivered to the ones who bought and hold! 

Edited by Luke
Hamburg Investor Collaborator

Hamburg Investor

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, John Hjorth said:

My personal functional currency[,by now, it may change]  is the obscure, tiny currency DKK, which is pegged strictly to EUR, no exceptions, or Danmarks Nationalbank intervenes.

So you are from Danmark…?! I come from the very (very!) northern part of Germany. Where the vaillages are named „by“ and the land has been Danish until 1866…

 

What are your stock picks?

Marco Van Basten Experienced

Marco Van Basten

Posted
Posted
33 minutes ago, Hamburg Investor said:

So you are from Danmark…?! I come from the very (very!) northern part of Germany. Where the vaillages are named „by“ and the land has been Danish until 1866…

 

What are your stock picks?

Short Bismarck!

SharperDingaan Veteran

SharperDingaan

Posted
Posted (edited)

Preliminary return in the low 60% range. Big beneficiary of pair and swing trades, along with continuing gains in BTC, UBS, CJ, and IPO. Key to the performance was a material BTC-CJ trade, that eventually worked out as we had hoped. The TSX index return for 2025 was 27.37%; our buy and hold portfolio Beta is around 0.70x. We should have made a little over 19%, active management earned us an additional 40%+

 

If 2026 is the year of M&A in the Canadian oil patch, we could do very well.

 

Good luck!

 

SD    

Edited by SharperDingaan
gary17 Collaborator

gary17

Posted
Posted (edited)

It has been a year of tremendous learning for me! I participated for the first time in an M&A of the company I work for, where I am both a shareholder and a member of the board/management team. Going through the financial and legal processes with the buyer gave me a fresh perspective on what I read so often in financial press releases. I now appreciate that behind each announcement, there are intricate matters stemming from both the buyer and seller organizations that must be resolved for a deal to close.

 

I am quite pleased with my 20+% pre-tax return in the stock market this year—especially since I haven't been able to give the portfolio the attention it deserves due to my duties at work. I scaled back significantly on the leverage I used in the past and raised cash; my performance also reflects a significant decline in CSU, where I hold a relatively large position.

 

A huge thank you to all the board members who have been so generous in sharing their ideas and analysis.

 

Happy hunting in 2026!

Gary

 

Edited by gary17
gary17 Collaborator

gary17

Posted
Posted (edited)
20 minutes ago, gary17 said:

It has been a year of tremendous learning for me! I participated for the first time in an M&A of the company I work for, where I am both a shareholder and a member of the board/management team. Going through the financial and legal processes with the buyer gave me a fresh perspective on what I read so often in financial press releases. I now appreciate that behind each announcement, there are intricate matters stemming from both the buyer and seller organizations that must be resolved for a deal to close.

 

I am quite pleased with my 20+% pre-tax return in the stock market this year—especially since I haven't been able to give the portfolio the attention it deserves due to my duties at work. I scaled back significantly on the leverage I used in the past and raised cash; my performance also reflects a significant decline in CSU, where I hold a relatively large position.

 

A huge thank you to all the board members who have been so generous in sharing their ideas and analysis.

 

Happy hunting in 2026!

Gary

 

 

I should also say thank-you to those who have shared thoughts with me about buying into the company I work for some 15 years ago - at the time I was contemplating, and many of you generously offered your view that definitely helped with my decision.

Edited by gary17
WayWardCloud Rising Star

WayWardCloud

Posted
Posted (edited)

+37% and my best year so far!

 

I am not done with my full debrief of this year's trades but I'm expecting the over-performance to have come almost entirely from several big purchases of Alphabet between $145 and $160 in the spring.

Google trading at a forward PE of ~17 for 2 whole months is proof that you don't need any special skills to jump over 1-foot hurdles.

My goal is to keep it very simple and focus on those most obvious trades in the future, which of course are easier to identify in hindsight.

The rest of the time I'll be happy to just sit on an all world ETF and high quality compounders.

 

Thank you everyone who participated in the forums and educated me.

Happy 2026 🎆

 

EDIT: Actually a second factor played into this year's performance almost as much as the Alphabet pick, levering up during the tariff tantrum. I went from ~85% long to ~125% for a couple months using IBKR margin.

Edited by WayWardCloud
Paarslaars Mentor

Paarslaars

Posted
Posted

Ah yes, time to face the piper... my worst performing year so far.

 

2021 47%
2022 -4%
2023 76%
2024 23%
2025

-37%

 

Basically made one big mistake this year, took a huge position in August in one of my favorite stocks (metaplanet) after it went down 50%.

Turned out, it was going down much further... some lessons to be learned here about risk management and averaging down into positions.

That said, I willing decided to buy leveraged BTC positions and so I have to be able to handle the volatility, still think I'm right on this one and 2026 will have to prove that.

 

 

 

 

Milu Experienced

Milu

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, Paarslaars said:

Ah yes, time to face the piper... my worst performing year so far.

 

 

2021 47%
2022 -4%
2023 76%
2024 23%
2025

-37%

 

Basically made one big mistake this year, took a huge position in August in one of my favorite stocks (metaplanet) after it went down 50%.

Turned out, it was going down much further... some lessons to be learned here about risk management and averaging down into positions.

That said, I willing decided to buy leveraged BTC positions and so I have to be able to handle the volatility, still think I'm right on this one and 2026 will have to prove that.

 

 

 

 

Good man for posting, a lot of people tend to ‘forget’ to post the bad years when it comes to these types of threads. While it’s hard to evaluate the success or failure of an investment strategy based on one year’s performance if you zoom out over the 5 years it looks to be a solid 14% cagr. 
 

my returns this decade have been

2020 - 53%

2021 - 22%

2022 - (33%)

2023 - 47%

2024 - 47%

2025 - 4%

 

CAGR - 18.8%

Zemergefen Explorer

Zemergefen

Posted
Posted

About 19.5% YTD (2025)

 

MOH and FND were the main drag on performance this year.

New additions late this year : AMRZ, RYAN, BRO, AJG.   I'll add overtime once I develop a higher conviction in the business models.

 

image.png.3bc9e0d0900e2d8d2b33a4504c87f989.png

backtothebeach Mentor

backtothebeach

Posted
Posted

With a very Fairfax heavy portfolio:

in EUR    25.6%
in USD    42.5%

Roughly a quarter of the performance is from trading, selling puts etc., the other 3/4 from just holding all year.

 

In the first months of the year, when BRK-A ran up ("flight to safety") and Fairfax was weak, I noticed that 500 FRFHF cost the same or less than one BRK-A share. So I did a bunch of back and forth pair trades, thinking that, as a backstop, medium term, Fairfax should outperform Berkshire.

 

A few times I even shorted an A share to buy 500 more Fairfax for a credit (best credit: $47000). After some scalping back and forth this actually went even further against me, with one A share being up to $90000 more expensive than 500 FRFHF. So when it came back towards parity I chickened out and took profits  -  I mean, being short BRK-A does feel uncomfortable, and IB charges some interest on it.

 

The last and best exit was buying back my one BRK-A share, selling 500 Fairfax, at a credit of $35000. Fast forward to today and it would be a credit of $200,000.

 

Gotta say, the trading was exciting, but I did much more of it than I had planned. Looking to do much less in 2026.

73 Reds Grand Master

73 Reds

Posted
Posted
22 minutes ago, backtothebeach said:

With a very Fairfax heavy portfolio:

in EUR    25.6%
in USD    42.5%

Roughly a quarter of the performance is from trading, selling puts etc., the other 3/4 from just holding all year.

 

In the first months of the year, when BRK-A ran up ("flight to safety") and Fairfax was weak, I noticed that 500 FRFHF cost the same or less than one BRK-A share. So I did a bunch of back and forth pair trades, thinking that, as a backstop, medium term, Fairfax should outperform Berkshire.

 

A few times I even shorted an A share to buy 500 more Fairfax for a credit (best credit: $47000). After some scalping back and forth this actually went even further against me, with one A share being up to $90000 more expensive than 500 FRFHF. So when it came back towards parity I chickened out and took profits  -  I mean, being short BRK-A does feel uncomfortable, and IB charges some interest on it.

 

The last and best exit was buying back my one BRK-A share, selling 500 Fairfax, at a credit of $35000. Fast forward to today and it would be a credit of $200,000.

 

Gotta say, the trading was exciting, but I did much more of it than I had planned. Looking to do much less in 2026.

Interesting pair trade.  Some decades ago I did a similar thing with BRK and SPY.  Can't recall exactly how I did overall but the fact that I stopped doing it suggests it wasn't terribly worthwhile.  

Hamburg Investor Collaborator

Hamburg Investor

Posted
Posted
19 hours ago, Marco Van Basten said:

Short Bismarck!

😂

I don‘t think, you‘ll find a lot of people taking the long position for someone who died 100+ years ago… 😉

 

Fortunately there’s a good relationship between the Danish and the German in our region across the border. A lot of respect on both sides of the border and special rights for the minorities. Danish schools in Germany and German schools in Danmark. Political parties of the minorities on both Sodes of the border do have speciel support and rights. 
 

Would be great if all wars would end with such cultural understanding and coexistance and respect for each other.

John Hjorth Grand Master

John Hjorth

Posted
  • Author
Posted
20 hours ago, Hamburg Investor said:

So you are from Danmark…?! I come from the very (very!) northern part of Germany. Where the vaillages are named „by“ and the land has been Danish until 1866…

 

What are your stock picks?

 

19 hours ago, Marco Van Basten said:

Short Bismarck!

 

25 minutes ago, Hamburg Investor said:

😂

I don‘t think, you‘ll find a lot of people taking the long position for someone who died 100+ years ago… 😉

 

Fortunately there’s a good relationship between the Danish and the German in our region across the border. A lot of respect on both sides of the border and special rights for the minorities. Danish schools in Germany and German schools in Danmark. Political parties of the minorities on both Sodes of the border do have speciel support and rights. 
 

Would be great if all wars would end with such cultural understanding and coexistance and respect for each other.

 

😂 - I haven't forgotten to get back to you on my portfolio here in this topic, @Hamburg Investor 😉

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

Totally havoc here, today, internally! This morning I realized in horror that I in my meticously liquidity planning for January 2026 has made an error moving cash around, so I ended up creating an overdraft on my current account 'old fashion' non-investment bank [Fynske Bank A/S, FYNBK.CPH] of DKK 124.08, [EUR 16.66, USD 19.49], -tomorrow morning, after automated payments tomorrow!

 

The Lady of the House was shaking head of me, to which I just replied : 'Do remember when you got fleeced by Nordea for a bank overdraft minor than the overdraft reminder fee by a computer generated reminder letter, and I asked you to dump the bank immedially! - Unapproved bank overdrafts is the name of a tiny viilage in Sibiria, a total no-go!'

 

Revolut Bank UAB, London, the mother ship operating out of Vilnius, Lithuania, was my friend today! [<- 'Friggin' 'wild thing'!, buzzing @UK here, also.]

 

[*John slapping 'John the Cheapskate' -hard!* 🤬]

cwericb Experienced

cwericb

Posted
Posted (edited)

image.thumb.png.b53008eabd98aed109b8e4e5481f4b6a.png

 

Returns:

2021: + 38%*  

2022: + 14%* 

2023: + 28%*  

2024: + 50.8%*   

2025: + 28.6%*

*Not including dividends (probably another 1-2%)

 

The interesting thing about compounding is that if I had reached about 35% in 2025 I would have made about the same amount of cash as I did in 2024 at 50.8%. 

 

I rarely sell or buy and just let the portfolio compound. The downside is that latent taxes are scary. 

 

Found Sanveev's board in 2005-6 and began following FFH at $98/share. Joined the board sometime later and finally convinced myself that Fairfax was what I was looking for, but kicked myself because FFH had by then jumped to $217 when I finally took the plunge. I still have those $217 shares as since then have only added, never sold. One thing that drew me to Fairfax was that Prem's salary back then was set at $600,000 while other CEO's were in the multi, multi millions. AND, while I rarely see it mentioned today, I believe Prem's salary remains pegged at $600K. 

 

So Prem's gain, like mine and fellow shareholders, comes from the price of shares we own in Fairfax.

 

I have now been on this board and predecessors for close to 20 years and I owe nearly every cent I have made by learning who to follow on CoBF and who to not. I will not mention any names because I am sure I would overlook some. So, thank you to all board members, and especially our esteemed 'leader' Sanjeev.

 

Edited by cwericb
John Hjorth Grand Master

John Hjorth

Posted
  • Author
Posted
9 hours ago, Paarslaars said:

Ah yes, time to face the piper... my worst performing year so far.

 

 

2021 47%
2022 -4%
2023 76%
2024 23%
2025

-37%

 

Basically made one big mistake this year, took a huge position in August in one of my favorite stocks (metaplanet) after it went down 50%.

Turned out, it was going down much further... some lessons to be learned here about risk management and averaging down into positions.

That said, I willing decided to buy leveraged BTC positions and so I have to be able to handle the volatility, still think I'm right on this one and 2026 will have to prove that.

 

@Paarslaars,

 

Like also @Milu mentioned above, your frank and outspoken honesty about the brutal facts for you are really appreciated.

 

Have you forgotten to vote in the poll, by the way ❓💡🙂 :

 

image.thumb.png.0f0e91f3a7fc7275966b2d74f9f044f0.png

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