Fairfax 2026

[Hoodlum]

2 minutes ago, giulio said:

170k bought back, 160k cancelled

 

Thanks for sharing @giulio.  While a little less that I was hoping, hopefully they can do even more this month.  I am a bit surprised they only purchased 9,700 shares on 5/29 when the price dropped to $2,150 with volume at 200k shares that day.

[Junior R]

1 hour ago, Hoodlum said:

 

Thanks for sharing @giulio.  While a little less that I was hoping, hopefully they can do even more this month.  I am a bit surprised they only purchased 9,700 shares on 5/29 when the price dropped to $2,150 with volume at 200k shares that day.

.85% in one month is a good 300m plus 

[CharlesMunger]

28 minutes ago, Junior R said:

.85% in one month is a good 300m plus 

Anyone has the YTD %?

[Hoodlum]

4 minutes ago, CharlesMunger said:

Anyone has the YTD %?

I believe we are at 2.5%

[CharlesMunger]

6 minutes ago, Hoodlum said:

I believe we are at 2.5%

Not too shabby. 5% year-end would be good, no?

[Crip1]

2 minutes ago, CharlesMunger said:

Not too shabby. 5% year-end would be good, no?

I am still not sure of buying back shares is better or worse than taking out the minority interests in Allied World and Odyssey, but one has to believe that they've done the due diligence on this. Clearly, they have more information with which to make this decision than I do, and far more acumen in terms of allocating capital. It just seems that taking out minority interests is like buying a well-run insurer at an attractive price with virtually no chance of any "surprises" one receives when buying an insurer outright.

 

Maybe it's a timing thing where they can take out the minority interests at any time but the open market share price is likely to only be this low "for a limited time, only". 

 

-Crip

 

 

[SafetyinNumbers]

5 minutes ago, Crip1 said:

I am still not sure of buying back shares is better or worse than taking out the minority interests in Allied World and Odyssey, but one has to believe that they've done the due diligence on this. Clearly, they have more information with which to make this decision than I do, and far more acumen in terms of allocating capital. It just seems that taking out minority interests is like buying a well-run insurer at an attractive price with virtually no chance of any "surprises" one receives when buying an insurer outright.

 

Maybe it's a timing thing where they can take out the minority interests at any time but the open market share price is likely to only be this low "for a limited time, only". 

 

-Crip

 

 

The minority interests are financed by “common” shares with preferred dividend rates. Buying out the minority interests is essentially reducing leverage. It makes sense to do that when the stock is more expensive. That being said, the Allied World option expires in September so I think they will exercise that option soon.

[Txvestor]

Just now, Crip1 said:

I am still not sure of buying back shares is better or worse than taking out the minority interests in Allied World and Odyssey, but one has to believe that they've done the due diligence on this. Clearly, they have more information with which to make this decision than I do, and far more acumen in terms of allocating capital. It just seems that taking out minority interests is like buying a well-run insurer at an attractive price with virtually no chance of any "surprises" one receives when buying an insurer outright.

 

Maybe it's a timing thing where they can take out the minority interests at any time but the open market share price is likely to only be this low "for a limited time, only". 

 

-Crip

 

 

It's possible they feel like they have more discretion/optionality on the timing of those buyouts or settling their down TRS position than buying back their stock at the current  prices. They love keeping optionality. 

The good news is they have a relatively consistent and robust inflow of cash which they can allocate as they choose. I'm sure they take a 360 view when making these decisions. 
 

Looked at it another way. Imagine Fairfax was trading at $US 2500 a share. The focus would shift to subs buybacks, TRS close out, and perhaps external investments. But while the market gives you a chance, why not? Those others can wait. 

[Crip1]

9 minutes ago, Txvestor said:

It's possible they feel like they have more discretion/optionality on the timing of those buyouts or settling their down TRS position than buying back their stock at the current  prices. They love keeping optionality. 

The good news is they have a relatively consistent and robust inflow of cash which they can allocate as they choose. I'm sure they take a 360 view when making these decisions. 
 

Looked at it another way. Imagine Fairfax was trading at $US 2500 a share. The focus would shift to subs buybacks, TRS close out, and perhaps external investments. But while the market gives you a chance, why not? Those others can wait. 

Yeah, I was kinda reaching that conclusion myself, you just stated it far better than I could.

 

-Crip

[Hoodlum]

27 minutes ago, CharlesMunger said:

Not too shabby. 5% year-end would be good, no?

Yes, that would be good although that is assuming share price continues to stay low.  This is why it is good to be aggressive with buyback when the opportunity exists as we don't know how long that will last.

[Maverick47]

8 hours ago, SafetyinNumbers said:

Odyssey: https://online.fliphtml5.com/bxxq/xlyw/#p=10

 

Crum: https://online.flippingbook.com/view/43897353/8/

Thanks for the links @SafetyinNumbers.  
 

As an armchair historian, I have to say I appreciated the Crum and Forster overview of their company history.  I like to see a current manager spending time learning about the mistakes of the past to help ensure that they are not revered in the future.  And it was a kick to see that one of the original investors in the company back in 1822 (William Adee) had the same last name as the current CEO…and found a short interview online with Marc Adee in which he confirmed that he discovered this previously unknown connection himself upon reviewing the company archives.

 

 

[djokovic1]

Love the pace of buybacks. Think June will be an aggressive month too (if share price stays here).

 

Would expect to get close to 8-9% for the full year if share price remains depressed. Or the share price will go up.  Win either way!

[Jaygo]

I think buyback consistency is important like AZO but imo 5% this year would be a little disappointing considering the value.

 

I see the buyback as identical to buying more of the current holdings. Shrink shares out by 10% and now each share holds 11% more of the same holdings so if empire building is not considered you as the capital allocator should just pick the option that is cheaper / better value. 

 

In my mind FFH common is just a really good value here so should be the #1 target and a really great opportunity for the head office to alleviate the issue of growing too large that other companies have. 

[Intelligent_Investor]

Was expecting a bit more buybacks, but hopefully they stay aggressive

[SafetyinNumbers]

2 hours ago, Jaygo said:

I think buyback consistency is important like AZO but imo 5% this year would be a little disappointing considering the value.

 

I see the buyback as identical to buying more of the current holdings. Shrink shares out by 10% and now each share holds 11% more of the same holdings so if empire building is not considered you as the capital allocator should just pick the option that is cheaper / better value. 

 

In my mind FFH common is just a really good value here so should be the #1 target and a really great opportunity for the head office to alleviate the issue of growing too large that other companies have. 

I assume it’s based on price and capital available for buybacks. I still want them to grow net premiums if they are getting a good return so that float keeps growing. 

[Txvestor]

2 hours ago, Jaygo said:

I think buyback consistency is important like AZO but imo 5% this year would be a little disappointing considering the value.

 

I see the buyback as identical to buying more of the current holdings. Shrink shares out by 10% and now each share holds 11% more of the same holdings so if empire building is not considered you as the capital allocator should just pick the option that is cheaper / better value. 

 

In my mind FFH common is just a really good value here so should be the #1 target and a really great opportunity for the head office to alleviate the issue of growing too large that other companies have. 

Jeez man. IDK. Taken since 2020(last 5yrs), they're retired over 20% of their shares outstanding at an average price of $904, or $4.75B. Since 2017 it's 6.9M or 25% of the shares outstanding at an estimated $800 average. The TRS are above that. 
Just last year at the run rate of buybacks and dividend they returned about $2B to shareholders.

Thats a pretty aggressive rate. IDK How long Mr Market will give us this opportunity, but there's fewer investments I trust them to make that their own shares. 

[Mark Yetman]

21 hours ago, SafetyinNumbers said:

The minority interests are financed by “common” shares with preferred dividend rates. Buying out the minority interests is essentially reducing leverage. It makes sense to do that when the stock is more expensive. That being said, the Allied World option expires in September so I think they will exercise that option soon.

I haven’t seen any announcements about the 30-year notes, but it would make sense to me to use 30-year lockup notes to buy out the minority interests. Since the portion of float bought back would essentially pay the interest on the 30-year notes on a permanent equity holding. 

[SafetyinNumbers]

39 minutes ago, Mark Yetman said:

I haven’t seen any announcements about the 30-year notes, but it would make sense to me to use 30-year lockup notes to buy out the minority interests. Since the portion of float bought back would essentially pay the interest on the 30-year notes on a permanent equity holding. 

Makes sense. I haven’t done the math but the minority buyout is probably close to 5x earnings like it was for Brit. 

[Jaygo]

43 minutes ago, SafetyinNumbers said:

I assume it’s based on price and capital available for buybacks. I still want them to grow net premiums if they are getting a good return so that float keeps growing. 

 

Buybacks grow net premiums per share. The tough question is just what's going to have a better return.

[SafetyinNumbers]

28 minutes ago, Jaygo said:

 

Buybacks grow net premiums per share. The tough question is just what's going to have a better return.

It’s not just that. The insurance companies have relationships with customers so as long as the returns are adequate, I think they should be trying to write business. 

[Jaygo]

27 minutes ago, SafetyinNumbers said:

It’s not just that. The insurance companies have relationships with customers so as long as the returns are adequate, I think they should be trying to write business. 

In my business coverage Northbridge has never come close to intact. Maybe they are more cautious or hold to higher expected CR but seems like they are not desperate that's for sure. 

 

I do agree with you btw that growth would be good but buybacks today can do wonders down the line for shareholders

[SafetyinNumbers]

24 minutes ago, Jaygo said:

In my business coverage Northbridge has never come close to intact. Maybe they are more cautious or hold to higher expected CR but seems like they are not desperate that's for sure. 

 

I do agree with you btw that growth would be good but buybacks today can do wonders down the line for shareholders

I don’t question they will be disciplined. Northbridge has been shrinking while IFC reaches for business. IFC’s stock isn’t as attractive for buybacks and the speculation is they will look to do an acquisition. I expect FFH to grow some casualty lines where pricing is still strong and internationally which isn’t on the same cycle as Western world insurance markets. 

[SonOfKen_IV]

Maybe gold price, and other precious metals, correction is not over yet but convertible Orla mining expiring time was simply perfect, hat off. (and 17,5M warrants still in FFH pockets)
 

[NoCalledStrikes]

I'm wondering which market participants are selling their shares to Fairfax and helping feed it's buyback machine and when do they run out of shares to sell at these prices?  They clearly aren't informed investors of Fairfax's prospects who think it is just now overpriced or they would have sold at higher prices anytime in the past six months, right?  My guess is we are benefitting from big funds making macro calls or sector bets selling all insurance indiscriminately and the person pressing the sell button has no clue what they sold? That said, insurance in general doesn't appear to be selling off. In any case, enjoy it while it lasts.

[yesman182]

3 minutes ago, NoCalledStrikes said:

insurance in general doesn't appear to be selling off. In any case, enjoy it while it lasts

Who do you consider insurance in general? Markel down, BRK down, PGR down, brokers down