Fairfax 2026

[Jaygo]

Yes that is crazy. And yes I love to see it. 

[SafetyinNumbers]

I think the buybacks also show that @dartmonkey’s research was correct. They can buy above the daily limit as long as they buy the incremental amount on an ATS and the 2% rule doesn’t apply. 
 

 

[Crip1]

11 minutes ago, SafetyinNumbers said:

I think the buybacks also show that @dartmonkey’s research was correct. They can buy above the daily limit as long as they buy the incremental amount on an ATS and the 2% rule doesn’t apply. 
 

 

Wow...early June is right about when the share price hit rock bottom. Openly wondering where the share price would be now if these purchases had not happened. Clearly, not too many buyers out there...except for the investors who know more about the company than anyone.

 

-Crip

[SafetyinNumbers]

4 minutes ago, Crip1 said:

Wow...early June is right about when the share price hit rock bottom. Openly wondering where the share price would be now if these purchases had not happened. Clearly, not too many buyers out there...except for the investors who know more about the company than anyone.

 

-Crip

To that end, has anyone calculated how much they have spent on the buyback so far this year? My guess on capacity was $2.4-3b. 
 

For Q1: During the quarter we purchased 374,883 subordinate voting shares for cancellation for cash consideration of $631.3 million, or $1,684 per share.

 

Prices in Q2 were a bit lower and they bought 300k more shares. 

[TwoCitiesCapital]

5 hours ago, djokovic1 said:

maybe, maybe not. We can try to rationalize it in hindsight. The true test is if you can predict when it happens ex ante. I would suggest that’s impossible. 
 

for example consensus was Fairfax added to TSX will lead to multiple

expansion but that didn’t happen

 

The hard part is the logic makes sense, but it's not uncommon for new index additions to underperform while new index exclusions outperform which defies the logic. 

 

People front run news. 

 

3 hours ago, SafetyinNumbers said:

It’s still supply and demand. Long term buybacks will reduce supply, sellers will face bigger capital gains bills so reduce supply and passive demand doesn’t care about value. Momentum investors moving in and out will oscillate the multiple but over time it should trend higher all else being equal. 

 

I agree, but ultimately the impact might be too small to notice. 

 

For instance, suppose in 2027 we average 1.7x book, and in 2028 we average 1.8x book, and in 2029 we average 1.9x book. 

 

But they're averages - so there will be plenty of time above, and below, those levels through daily variations in share price. It wouldnt be crazy to think we could be at 1.7x and 1.9x at varying times in both 2027 and 2029.

 

So are you even going to notice the rising multiple? Is it going to be a trend you can trade? Or should  we just ignore the average multiple and focus on earnings, earnings growth, and trajectory? I think the latter is going to be more meaningful and we can simply ignore any supposed fluctuation in the multiple unless if it trades beyond the edges of reasonability. 

[Hoodlum]

26 minutes ago, SafetyinNumbers said:

To that end, has anyone calculated how much they have spent on the buyback so far this year? My guess on capacity was $2.4-3b. 
 

For Q1: During the quarter we purchased 374,883 subordinate voting shares for cancellation for cash consideration of $631.3 million, or $1,684 per share.

 

Prices in Q2 were a bit lower and they bought 300k more shares. 

I presume your Q2 300k share buybacks does not include June, as it looks like they bought back ~500k that month. 

[Intelligent_Investor]

So its confirmed the big block trades we've seen are repurchases?

[SafetyinNumbers]

1 hour ago, Hoodlum said:

I presume your Q2 300k share buybacks does not include June, as it looks like they bought back ~500k that month. 

300k more in Q2 vs Q1. 675k shares total in Q2 including the 500k in June.

[SafetyinNumbers]

23 minutes ago, Intelligent_Investor said:

So its confirmed the big block trades we've seen are repurchases?

Repurchases yes, whether they are related to TRS or not, we won’t officially know until they report Q2.

[SafetyinNumbers]

1 hour ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:

 

The hard part is the logic makes sense, but it's not uncommon for new index additions to underperform while new index exclusions outperform which defies the logic. 

 

People front run news. 

 

 

I agree, but ultimately the impact might be too small to notice. 

 

For instance, suppose in 2027 we average 1.7x book, and in 2028 we average 1.8x book, and in 2029 we average 1.9x book. 

 

But they're averages - so there will be plenty of time above, and below, those levels through daily variations in share price. It wouldnt be crazy to think we could be at 1.7x and 1.9x at varying times in both 2027 and 2029.

 

So are you even going to notice the rising multiple? Is it going to be a trend you can trade? Or should  we just ignore the average multiple and focus on earnings, earnings growth, and trajectory? I think the latter is going to be more meaningful and we can simply ignore any supposed fluctuation in the multiple unless if it trades beyond the edges of reasonability. 

I think the multiple is interesting because of margin of safety and the impact to total returns if it expands. It’s easy to buy at the low end of the range when the company is also buying. I’ll let the momentum buyers pay much higher multiples when they inevitably return.

[CharlesMunger]

So YTD we are at 5% of outstanding shares?

[villainx]

2 hours ago, Crip1 said:

Wow...early June is right about when the share price hit rock bottom.

 

I followed the forum and added a few shares June 1.  

[gokou3]

I am tracking the repurchases as follow (with AI, so not guaranteeing the accuracy):

 

Updated 2025–2026 NCIB Running Ledger

• TSX Approved Program Maximum: 2,187,316 shares

• Absorbed in Q4 2025: 151,029 shares

• Absorbed in Q1 2026: 374,883 shares

• Absorbed in April 2026: 17,100 shares

• Absorbed in May 2026 (via SEDI): 170,000 shares

• Absorbed in June 2026 (via SEDI): 499,413 shares

• Total Program Shares Cancelled to Date: 1,212,425 shares

Remaining NCIB Runway

• Remaining Purchase Capacity: 974,891 shares (valid through September 29, 2026)

[Hoodlum]

46 minutes ago, gokou3 said:

I am tracking the repurchases as follow (with AI, so not guaranteeing the accuracy):

 

Updated 2025–2026 NCIB Running Ledger

• TSX Approved Program Maximum: 2,187,316 shares

• Absorbed in Q4 2025: 151,029 shares

• Absorbed in Q1 2026: 374,883 shares

• Absorbed in April 2026: 17,100 shares

• Absorbed in May 2026 (via SEDI): 170,000 shares

• Absorbed in June 2026 (via SEDI): 499,413 shares

• Total Program Shares Cancelled to Date: 1,212,425 shares

Remaining NCIB Runway

• Remaining Purchase Capacity: 974,891 shares (valid through September 29, 2026)

 

During Q4 2025 I believe we absorbed 464,742 shares (YE-1,006,535 shares purchased minus Q3-541,794 shares purchased). The Q1/Q2 purchases look to be correct.

 

Q3 Results

"in the first nine months of 2025, partially offset by the payment of common share dividends of $343.6 million and purchases of 541,794 subordinate voting shares for cancellation at an aggregate cost of $856.8 million)."

 

Year End Results

“During the year we purchased 1,006,535 subordinate voting shares for cancellation for cash consideration of $1.6 billion, or $1,615 per share”, said Prem Watsa, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer.

[Duke In Shadows]

 

 

[gokou3]

3 hours ago, Hoodlum said:

 

During Q4 2025 I believe we absorbed 464,742 shares (YE-1,006,535 shares purchased minus Q3-541,794 shares purchased). The Q1/Q2 purchases look to be correct.

 

Q3 Results

"in the first nine months of 2025, partially offset by the payment of common share dividends of $343.6 million and purchases of 541,794 subordinate voting shares for cancellation at an aggregate cost of $856.8 million)."

 

Year End Results

“During the year we purchased 1,006,535 subordinate voting shares for cancellation for cash consideration of $1.6 billion, or $1,615 per share”, said Prem Watsa, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer.

Updated 2025–2026 NCIB Running Ledger

• TSX Approved Program Maximum: 2,187,316 shares

• Absorbed in Q4 2025 (Corrected): 464,742 shares

• Absorbed in Q1 2026: 374,883 shares

• Absorbed in April 2026: 17,100 shares

• Absorbed in May 2026 (via SEDI): 170,000 shares

• Absorbed in June 2026 (via SEDI): 499,413 shares

• Total Program Shares Cancelled to Date: 1,526,138 shares

Remaining NCIB Runway

• Remaining Purchase Capacity: 661,178 shares (valid through September 29, 2026)

[Maverick47]

Wondering how treasury share purchases appear in these sorts of reports, if at all?    Is it possible that some of the shares shown as being purchased by the company could have been set aside in connection with the company’s intended use of them to add to their treasury shares for future incentive compensation purposes?
 

I’m guessing a few hundred thousand shares per year are issued from the corporate Treasury on five year vesting schedules to employees, and I believe the company indicated that they would purchase on the open market each year the number of shares needed for that program.

 

[Parsad]

I'm still sticking to my prediction of $3,000 CAD by year-end 2026.  They are comfortable with their huge buybacks...there will be a surprise in the earnings in Q2 or Q3...more cash coming in than even Viking expected.  Cheers!

[SafetyinNumbers]

4 hours ago, Parsad said:

I'm still sticking to my prediction of $3,000 CAD by year-end 2026.  They are comfortable with their huge buybacks...there will be a surprise in the earnings in Q2 or Q3...more cash coming in than even Viking expected.  Cheers!

Seems reasonable. Assuming BVPS ends up between $1400-1450 by year end, that’s a P/B multiple of 1.45-1.5x. 

[gfp]

9 hours ago, Maverick47 said:

Wondering how treasury share purchases appear in these sorts of reports, if at all?    Is it possible that some of the shares shown as being purchased by the company could have been set aside in connection with the company’s intended use of them to add to their treasury shares for future incentive compensation purposes?
 

I’m guessing a few hundred thousand shares per year are issued from the corporate Treasury on five year vesting schedules to employees, and I believe the company indicated that they would purchase on the open market each year the number of shares needed for that program.

 

 

In past years they have tended to purchase the shares for this purpose (treasury shares to be issued later for compensation) at the beginning of the year and the shares purchased later in the year - like these recent purchases - have gone towards cancellation.

[jbwent63]

The huge buybacks in June give us a strong hint at their analysis of capital allocation. They spent about $800 million USD on those buybacks that could have been used for other purposes, investments in bonds, equities, minority buybacks etc. Gives you a sense of how overvalued the markets are in their (and many other people's) minds. I'm interested to see if they sold BB to fund any of this. Secondly, I think we have an option to purchase minority interest in Allied World this summer/fall. I wonder if this buyback is instead of that, or in addition to that investment.

 

Always interesting times at Fairfax.

[MMM20]

Thrilled they're smashing the buyback button. It's the best when you're convinced a stock is trading at a third or maybe half of (a growing) intrinsic value and mgmt makes it easy to sit on your ass. Back to the beach...

 

Edited 1 hour ago by MMM20

[villainx]

2 hours ago, gfp said:

tended to purchase the shares for this purpose (treasury shares to be issued later for compensation) at the beginning of the year

 

Some folks are in line for a big pay day then!

 

 

[SafetyinNumbers]

36 minutes ago, jbwent63 said:

The huge buybacks in June give us a strong hint at their analysis of capital allocation. They spent about $800 million USD on those buybacks that could have been used for other purposes, investments in bonds, equities, minority buybacks etc. Gives you a sense of how overvalued the markets are in their (and many other people's) minds. I'm interested to see if they sold BB to fund any of this. Secondly, I think we have an option to purchase minority interest in Allied World this summer/fall. I wonder if this buyback is instead of that, or in addition to that investment.

 

Always interesting times at Fairfax.

I don’t think that’s the right framing. I know I’m in the minority in this view but the evidence suggests they think about the insurance subsidiaries investment decisions i.e. bonds/equities different from the holdco capital allocation decisions which would include buybacks, minority interests and buying insurance companies. There is no rush on the minority interests as the financing cost is fixed. Like the TRS it’s just a form of funding. That being said, I think we’ll see them buy Allied World minority interest in this quarter likely when the proceeds of Eurolife are received.

[SafetyinNumbers]

12 minutes ago, villainx said:

 

Some folks are in line for a big pay day then!

 

 

I assume they have less shares to buy for employees than they did 5 years ago because the stock has moved up faster than total comp.