Fairfax 2026

[Parsad]

6 minutes ago, 73 Reds said:

No one was upset.  Folks here were trying to offer you advice.   Truly sorry you took it the wrong way. 

 

Well, as soon as I posted the above...you also apologized to Bearprowler as well!  Thanks very much for doing that!  Cheers!

[73 Reds]

Just now, Parsad said:

 

Reds, do you notice a pattern here?  You seem to be a primary instigator to these targeted posts.  I've avoided responding to anything you post in the last week, as I don't want to get into a back and forth.  But again, here with Bearprowler, nothing to do with politics, etc, but you are taking shots at his wife. 

 

Time to look in the mirror and ask yourself "maybe I should think twice before posting something that takes a shot at someone's spouse" or similar.  Bearprowler apologized when he didn't have to, and your response was not to apologize as well, but accuse him of starting it.  Thank you for being the bigger man Bearprowler!  Cheers!

Sanjeev, where did I take a shot at his wife?  The "apology" post was in jest - as was most of this thread except for the myriad of advice provided that he seemed to ignore.  I write like I'd be talking to someone sitting at the next bar stool; thought that was pretty clear by now but maybe not.  SORRY!  

[Intelligent_Investor]

17 hours ago, Milu said:

There definitely seems to be a lot of PTSD or scar tissue with the long term Fairfax holders. 10 years of a stock going nowhere would do that to a person. I’ve recently been buying Fairfax for the first time so don’t have any baggage around what the stock did in the past or that it recently had a 20% pullback. It’s still a small position at around 3% of portfolio but I’m hoping to add more over the coming months. I’m still not fully convinced Prem and co have shaken that habit of trying to buy turnaround stories, I thought they had but then seeing them take decent stake in under armour feels like they are back to the RIM/Blackberry days. I’m not sure why they didn’t take a leaf out of buffets playbook and just buy high quality large compounders like Coca Cola, Moodys, Apple etc. if only Prem had a Charlie munger sidekick to help him see the light. Maybe my assessment is wrong and they have genuinely got these type of value traps out of the system. 

Imo value traps isn't the problem, it was the equity hedges. They are a great insurance company and other great insurance companies invest in only bonds and get great returns. They can be very average at investing and still outperform. They just can't put on equity hedges that kill their returns when the S&P is ripping 15% a year for a decade

[SafetyinNumbers]

2 minutes ago, Intelligent_Investor said:

Imo value traps isn't the problem, it was the equity hedges. They are a great insurance company and other great insurance companies invest in only bonds and get great returns. They can be very average at investing and still outperform. They just can't put on equity hedges that kill their returns when the S&P is ripping 15% a year for a decade

I think something that continues to be overlooked is that they started the strategy of buying equity accounted for or consolidated positions at the same time. By definition, it means losses hit book value immediately while gains are deferred. That makes equity returns look bad from an accounting perspective while the economic returns are obscured. Now that we are 10+ years into the strategy, the realizations have become more frequent and growing. 
 

[Buckeye]

15 hours ago, bearprowler6 said:

I am 66 and have been fully retired since I was 54. Because of our investment success my wife was able to fully retire one year earlier at 53. My Fairfax position sizing is right for me at about 8-9% of my overall portfolio even after this drawdown.  I have been a long time shareholder )since Nov/99) with an average cost base of $211.80 CAD. Screaming for 2 times book? Today they were suggesting 4 times book is in sight? Ridiculous.

I decide to take on all the hard core value investors on this board today because I know that numerous new investors into Fairfax  (bought in in the last 3-5 years) have only seen upside but us longer term shareholders know the dark side. A few brave souls supported what I was trying to accomplish today and one or two even suggested I was onto something because they had let their Fairfax portfolio sizing grow too large and are now after the 20% sell off are regretting not addressing this sooner. 

Too bad @bearprowler6 won’t be back to explain himself, but I’d be curious to know what exactly he thinks he’s “accomplished”!
 

Act like you’re genuinely seeking advice, only to “take on” and  ridicule those who took their time to respond, while bragging about your investment returns and early retirement and then sign off. What a huge accomplishment!

 

I guess these are the weak hands that @SafetyinNumbers talks about. 

Edited 2 hours ago by Buckeye

[Crip1]

To the point made a day or two ago, before things got squirrely, of capital flowing into Tech and out of Financials, this is the past week comparing the Nasdaq vs Fairfax (US). The Nasdaq high for the week late in the day on Monday occurred with the Fairfax low, and since then they've gone in opposite directions. This does not explain all of the FFH decline in share price this year, but it is definitely a contributing factor. 

 

Occam's razor.

 

-Crip

 

 

[SharperDingaan]

2 hours ago, SharperDingaan said:

Keep in mind that a great many of the FFH equity investments are underpriced simply because of the US situation. Great companies, but few willing to pay full price, creating buying opportunities.

 

It is quite obvious that Canada is going into an extended period of massive infrastructure expansion. FFH will have a seat at the table, they have a lot of capital, and the people in the seat are amongst the best there are. Given that FFH shares are liquid, there are few better vehicles.

 

It really comes down to investment approach. A self directed RRIF jammed with FFH is probably going to do a lot better than an annuity, but is not for everyone.

 

SD

 

 

Just to add to this, and throw out something for the masters to consider .... 

 

One of the biggest knocks against FFH is the lack of a reasonable dividend. Sure ... nothing prevents an investor from making their own (sell shares, sell covered calls, swing trade, etc.) .... but it requires active management. Not what many who would like to hold FFH, want to do.

 

If you need a 4-5% dividend income on the capital, to pay living expenses, you can't hold FFH. 1M invested in FFH vs 50K/year of dividends is not a competitive alternative. Simply raising the annual FFH dividend is also counter productive, as it just raises the incentive to swing trade around the record date. 

 

Berkshire has the Baby B. Little prevents FFH from creating a Baby F that pays a 5% dividend, particularly when the respective share counts do not have to be the same. Widen the investor base, and benefit from better metrics.

 

All in a days work ......

 

SD

 

 

 

 

Edited 1 hour ago by SharperDingaan

[villainx]

13 minutes ago, Buckeye said:

but I’d be curious to know what exactly

 

I really couldn't follow.  He had an issue / concern, but wasn't very clear about it. Lining up some posters as brave souls on his side and blind fan boys on the other is a little off putting though.

 

 

Edited 2 hours ago by villainx

[SafetyinNumbers]

5 minutes ago, Crip1 said:

To the point made a day or two ago, before things got squirrely, of capital flowing into Tech and out of Financials, this is the past week comparing the Nasdaq vs Fairfax (US). The Nasdaq high for the week late in the day on Monday occurred with the Fairfax low, and since then they've gone in opposite directions. This does not explain all of the FFH decline in share price this year, but it is definitely a contributing factor. 

 

Occam's razor.

 

-Crip

 

 

The market structure favours revenue growth and price momentum over everything else. Fairfax doesn’t have much of either vs technology stocks or Canadian banks. I thought the multiple would keep going up as long as the BVPS momentum continued but I was wrong. Now I think it’s going to take another hard market to get above 1.5x BV but I could be wrong again. 

[thowed]

4 hours ago, SafetyinNumbers said:

 

Fun to have these comments within minutes of each other.

 

 I’m not sure the multiple can go up that much without a hard market but we’re all just guessing. 

 

Yes, anything more to add on this, @Parsad?  Fascinated by the second!

 

[Hamburg Investor]

7 minutes ago, villainx said:

I really couldn't follow.  He had an issue / concern, but wasn't very clear about it, and lined up other posters as brave souls on his side or blind fan boys on the other is a little off putting.

I didn’t understand his points either. You‘ll never know where stocks move to. Their might be a financial crisis, a scandal, a big hurricane or a war with Iran around the corner or the risk free yield night implode or explode tomorrow.  AI changed a lot stock process and Quantum computers might too in future. There’s just no calendar for planning such things. In Germany the Berlin wall fell overnight. 
 

So if price moves are a concern, than don’t buy stocks. That’s not a FFH topic. 

And there were a lot of assumptions regarding this board, where I‘d disagree and would have been interestibg to understand why snd how he came to conclusions, e. g. that most of us only know the last 4-5 years (I‘d guess, the overwhelming part of writers here have owned FFH some time before 2022/2021; some a lot longer than being in this forum, like me). He seemed to have a clear picture who we are, how we think, putting people in Drawers, without laying out, how he came to that conclusion.

 

He asked, became an answer from me with feedback, but hasn‘t even replied. No problem with that, but putting that together with reading the other answers at least I don’t found a lot of data points here bringing me to the conclusion, him being interested in layibg out his rationales or being interested in a discussion.
 

Which is fine, but if you don’t want to discuss and learn and think about your rationale; why do you go to a forum?

[MMM20]

The "investment professional" proves that you can grow older without growing wise enough not to pick personal fights with strangers online. Keep that sort of stuff on social media please, we're here to get away from it...

 

Edited 1 hour ago by MMM20

[Crip1]

55 minutes ago, SafetyinNumbers said:

The market structure favours revenue growth and price momentum over everything else. Fairfax doesn’t have much of either vs technology stocks or Canadian banks. I thought the multiple would keep going up as long as the BVPS momentum continued but I was wrong. Now I think it’s going to take another hard market to get above 1.5x BV but I could be wrong again. 

If memory serves, you've posted on more than one occasion how quants drive much of market direction. I did not agree with that but am slowly realizing the level with which quants exacerbate market sentiment. This is a good example, I think, of "*** is going up largely because *** is going up", and the same in reverse. 

 

Not exactly sure how to use that to one's advantage except for situations like we've seen over the past 6 months with Fairfax where the price declined but company did not. 

 

-Crip

[gfp]

Some of you goobers might remember how Berkshire traded before it entered the S&P 500 and how it changed quite a bit as it both became a major index and financial ETF component and also indexing and ETF AUM skyrocketed.

 

Fairfax recently joined an index like a big boy and it will trade a little differently now and that's all fine for people who want to buy or sell depending on the mood of the day

[SharperDingaan]

53 minutes ago, Crip1 said:

Not exactly sure how to use that to one's advantage except for situations like we've seen over the past 6 months with Fairfax where the price declined but company did not. 

 

-Crip

 

We've been exploiting this for a long time  ... sentiment trading 

 

Key point is that it has nothing to do with the performance of the underlying company. It's all about changing the supply/demand on the share float, by changing the story lines ... via media manipulation. A CFA produces a (biased) report, a non-CFA content creator rewrites/hypes the conclusion (circumventing ethical restrictions), and publishes on an amplifying media platform. Trump, crypto, oi/gas, yada, yada .....

 

FFH never reaches a P/BV of 1.5 ... 'cause it's too complicated, etc  Opportunity, as the solution is buy backs, and/or a suitably priced Baby F putting a floor under the P/BV .

 

BTC at USD 65K (down 40%+) and going lower, 'cause money is flowing to the SpaceX IPO. Help yourself! .... cause some of it will flow back after the SpaceX gain, and a material win will very likely make those casino winners a lot less price sensitive. Bunnies.

 

WTI going to USD 100 based on tweets/posts, and the weeks published US inventory draw. Then back to USD 90 by Monday after the week-end market closure, and the nth post that the SOH is now open. No real change, but 5-10% price changes in each direction ... every week. Dividends are extra.

 

All of it contributing to harvestable volatility, feeding back into the media amplification loop. Of course, against the day it breaks (as it will) .... we have lottery tickets 

 

SD

Edited 30 minutes ago by SharperDingaan

[yesman182]

2 hours ago, Buckeye said:

Too bad @bearprowler6 won’t be back to explain himself, but I’d be curious to know what exactly he thinks he’s “accomplished”!
 

Act like you’re genuinely seeking advice, only to “take on” and  ridicule those who took their time to respond, while bragging about your investment returns and early retirement and then sign off. What a huge accomplishment!

 

I guess these are the weak hands that @SafetyinNumbers talks about. 

Yeah, my take away was that it sounds like the next time this gets to 1.5x BV the market will find plenty of sellers. 

[Intelligent_Investor]

He sounds like either a troll or someone who has vendetta against Fairfax...maybe because he lost money or missed out on gains.

[SafetyinNumbers]

21 minutes ago, SharperDingaan said:

FFH never reaches a P/BV of 1.5 ... 'cause it's too complicated, etc  Opportunity, as the solution is buy backs, and/or a suitably priced Baby F putting a floor under the P/BV .

It did get to 1.69x P/B on July 29, 2025. That was using Q125A BVPS because they hadn’t reported Q2 yet. 

[Junior R]

2 hours ago, SharperDingaan said:

 

 

Just to add to this, and throw out something for the masters to consider .... 

 

One of the biggest knocks against FFH is the lack of a reasonable dividend. Sure ... nothing prevents an investor from making their own (sell shares, sell covered calls, swing trade, etc.) .... but it requires active management. Not what many who would like to hold FFH, want to do.

 

If you need a 4-5% dividend income on the capital, to pay living expenses, you can't hold FFH. 1M invested in FFH vs 50K/year of dividends is not a competitive alternative. Simply raising the annual FFH dividend is also counter productive, as it just raises the incentive to swing trade around the record date. 

 

Berkshire has the Baby B. Little prevents FFH from creating a Baby F that pays a 5% dividend, particularly when the respective share counts do not have to be the same. Widen the investor base, and benefit from better metrics.

 

All in a days work ......

 

SD

 

 

 

 

That is why it doesn't get much love like IFC, GWO, SLF on Canadian side...Canadian Investors are looking for stocks with a good dividend growth CAGR...if Fairfax grew dividends say 2% to 4% a year after couple years people will jump in ...TSX has a different beast of investors vs SPY / US Markets

[coffeecaninvestor]

Can we just get back to Fairfax related stuff… if I told my wife that I didn’t top tick a stock and get out with perfect timing she would probably call me a whiney b**** and tell me to get back to the real world or she’s leaving me. Watching this thread devolve into a child like argument is annoying. Can we just get back to discussing Fairfax and if we have personal finance related stuff start a separate thread.. I’m sure we could have a great many laughs about personal finance in a marriage. My wife thinks I’m a lunatic when it comes to money and investing.