Fairfax 2026

[73 Reds]

6 minutes ago, Milu said:

That’s fair enough. And yes everybody’s personal situation is difference. Perhaps you just need to reduce the weighting you have in the stock by a few percentage points. I would disagree on the description of unexpected drop. I have about 10 stocks in my portfolio and in each year I would fully expect that they could drop 20% or more no matter how bright the outlook is for each of them. 

Call me cynical but unless one needs the full value of a portfolio (or, in this case the value of their Fairfax holdings) for purposes other than investment, who cares?  What difference does it make what the daily/monthly/yearly value of any single holding is as long as the trajectory of one's overall net worth is heading in the right direction, i.e. up?  Does it make any sense at all to project that just because the price of an otherwise fine company has fallen, it will never rise again?  I have yet to come across anyone who can buy and sell at precisely the right times or who hasn't experienced substantial downdrafts.  So why worry about such things?  

[bearprowler6]

18 minutes ago, gfp said:

 

Its probably best to look critically at the stuff at new highs making you feel like a genius than stress about Fairfax at a low earnings multiple and low premium / no premium to book value.

 

A 9% weighting after all these years is nothing to lose sleep over.  But if that's big for you, sell down to your comfort level or your spouse's comfort level and the company and I will provide you liquidity.

Unbelievable. I said nothing about selling. I am very comfortable with the weighting and do not expect to take any action. I was simply following up on posts from Crip1 and cwericb, both long time posters on here, who raised a few issues. 

 

Many new investors to Fairfax have only enjoyed the ride up. I see the distinct possibility that things may stay down for an extended period of time. Holding this stock since 1999 has given me that perspective.

 

Just so everyone knows where I am coming from. If Fairfax went to zero my life would not change at all.  I have been fully retired from a senior investment position since I was 54 and am now 66. The questions I raised are valid and should be discussed. It seems to have hit a nerve with many of you which I feel is telling in itself.

[MMM20]

52 minutes ago, bearprowler6 said:

I accept that this is a possibility and a large repurchase of share at this point would seem timely. I am not calling a bottom. I am simply asking a very reasonable question that seems to hit a nerve with a number of posters here. I have held Fairfax since 1999. I have lived thru all of the events surrounding this company over the last 27 years of which there have been many. My average cost on the shares is just above $200 CAD. At 66 I am simply pondering whether any other approaches to buy and hold for the long term should be contemplated. Crip1 and cwericb seemed to be doing the same.

 

I can only speak for myself, but I wanted to push back on the whole discussion about family conversations, the possibility of some extended weakness (of course it could happen), and so on, b/c this current drawdown is par for the course, every year or two on average, and shouldn't really change anyone's thinking about anything...

 

 

Edited 8 hours ago by MMM20

[dealraker]

At less than 30 days I'll be 72. I don't understand the obsession as to current stock price.  Are you planning to spend all your retirement funds on one day, one year, or five?  Do you feel equally concerned when your home becomes completely unsellable...they all do for lengthy periods don't they?  My home would bring 2 mil today.  Three times in my life I don't think I could have given it away.

 

Do you put a value on your investments or does the market do that for you?  Do you understand yourself enough to know what percentage you can put into a stock and not act irrationally with price gyrations?  

 

 

Edited 8 hours ago by dealraker

[gfp]

17 minutes ago, bearprowler6 said:

Unbelievable. I said nothing about selling. I am very comfortable with the weighting and do not expect to take any action. I was simply following up on posts from Crip1 and cwericb, both long time posters on here, who raised a few issues. 

 

Many new investors to Fairfax have only enjoyed the ride up. I see the distinct possibility that things may stay down for an extended period of time. Holding this stock since 1999 has given me that perspective.

 

Just so everyone knows where I am coming from. If Fairfax went to zero my life would not change at all.  I have been fully retired from a senior investment position since I was 54 and am now 66. The questions I raised are valid and should be discussed. It seems to have hit a nerve with many of you which I feel is telling in itself.

 

Why is it unbelievable?

 

[bearprowler6]

4 minutes ago, dealraker said:

At less than 30 days I'll be 72. I don't understand the obsession as to current stock price.  Are you planning to spend all your retirement funds on one day, one year, or five?  Do you feel equally concerned when your home becomes completely unsellable...they all do for lengthy periods don't they?  My home would bring 2 mil today.  Three times in my life I don't think I could have given it away.

 

Do you put a value on your investments or does the market do that for you?  Do you understand yourself enough to know what percentage you can put into a stock and not act irrationally with price gyrations?  

 

 

Happy Birthday in advance. My home is worth about the same. It seems many on this board are very uncomfortable with discussing these very valid issues. Whether Fairfax is in an uptrend or a downtrend I believe we all need to address what to do with our holdings on a regular basis. We owe that to ourselves, to our families and ultimately to our heirs. If Fairfax, is in one of its extended sideways periods (I don't know whether it is or not) then it is very reasonable to ask yourself the question whether the funds should be deployed elsewhere to benefit those that rely on us.

[SafetyinNumbers]

2 minutes ago, bearprowler6 said:

Happy Birthday in advance. My home is worth about the same. It seems many on this board are very uncomfortable with discussing these very valid issues. Whether Fairfax is in an uptrend or a downtrend I believe we all need to address what to do with our holdings on a regular basis. We owe that to ourselves, to our families and ultimately to our heirs. If Fairfax, is in one of its extended sideways periods (I don't know whether it is or not) then it is very reasonable to ask yourself the question whether the funds should be deployed elsewhere to benefit those that rely on us.

If you have heirs then I would consider leaving it at the back of the cupboard (referencing Howard Marks essay on liquidity) and let compounding do its work. On a look through basis, there is no reason to believe the stock will be flat for 7 years and while anything can happen, the odds seem really low. Hopefully you have another 30 years like Buffett. That’s a lot of time. 

[MMM20]

Board is testy today. That does it, I'm buying another share. 

 

Edited 7 hours ago by MMM20

[Viking]

24 minutes ago, bearprowler6 said:

I see the distinct possibility that things may stay down for an extended period of time. Holding this stock since 1999 has given me that perspective.

@bearprowler6, can you provide a little more detail? (I don’t want to assume your reasons/logic.) 

[73 Reds]

1 minute ago, MMM20 said:

Board is testy today. That does it, I'm buying another share. 

 

Me too.  Isn't selling a great stock at prices where one should be holding, if not buying the antithesis of value investing?

[roundball100]

1 hour ago, bearprowler6 said:

Its not a question of not understanding that stocks can drop 20%, 30% or more. The question I posed is now that such an unexpected drop has occurred in what is likely an oversized position in many portfolios held by members on this board what should/will they do next? The response to this question will vary greatly by personal circumstances  including age, marital status, overall net worth , cash flow needs etc. Someone 30, with a great job and having bought into Fairfax 6 years ago at the covid  bottom should arguably respond differently than someone who is 70+, retired, married and for sake of argument in failing health.

What you did not mention in your list of personal circumstances is an individual's level of comfort with risk (here I use the risk to mean, for FFH, volatility in share price rather than permanent loss of capital).  If for personal reasons you feel that you may have to sell in the near future for any reason, then you probably should not be invested in any stocks. Which means if the markets go up, you miss out on return, but if the market falls, you come out ahead. No one on the board can predict the future.  But it sounds like you will sleep better with one of these choices than the other. 

[Pellom]

12 minutes ago, bearprowler6 said:

Happy Birthday in advance. My home is worth about the same. It seems many on this board are very uncomfortable with discussing these very valid issues. Whether Fairfax is in an uptrend or a downtrend I believe we all need to address what to do with our holdings on a regular basis. We owe that to ourselves, to our families and ultimately to our heirs. If Fairfax, is in one of its extended sideways periods (I don't know whether it is or not) then it is very reasonable to ask yourself the question whether the funds should be deployed elsewhere to benefit those that rely on us.

 

Do you mean downtrend in general, or downtrend while the rest of the market is booming? 

 

I started a fund/partnership this year, and totally agree with you that it has been frustrating to build a position in Fairfax (my largest holding by design) and watch it drop while the rest of the market is up. You just have to be reasonably convinced patience and diligence will win out. But I am in my early 30s, not in retirement. If I needed cash and already had a huge position, I don't think trimming is out of the question. 

[coffeecaninvestor]

Can someone just create a  10 year (or whatever) chart of the quarterly estimate of intrinsic value, and share it every quarter so we can turn off CNBC, log off our brokerage accounts, and stop looking at the share price. 

 

I am more of less pissed I didn't average in and am down double digits with limited cash in that account to add. It was hovering right above my remaining cash so without fractional trading I had to stew in anger. As more cash accumulates I will add as long as Prem continues to create share holder value. 

 

[bearprowler6]

16 minutes ago, Viking said:

@bearprowler6, can you provide a little more detail? (I don’t want to assume your reasons/logic.) 

Fairfax has never been loved by the market. The reasons have been discussed numerous times on this board by you and others. I believe the main reason for the downturn in Fairfax's share price is due to the soft market. No one know when that will change. No one, predicted what has happened to Fairfax share price this year. No one. So my question is simple. If the soft market lasts for longer than most of us want and if that is the main reason for the share price weakness as I suspect it is then do shareholders feel comfortable holding Fairfax and waiting it out? Especially for those 65+, would it perhaps not be better to redeploy the capital elsewhere?

[Crip1]

56 minutes ago, bearprowler6 said:

Unbelievable. I said nothing about selling. I am very comfortable with the weighting and do not expect to take any action. I was simply following up on posts from Crip1 and cwericb, both long time posters on here, who raised a few issues. 

 

Many new investors to Fairfax have only enjoyed the ride up. I see the distinct possibility that things may stay down for an extended period of time. Holding this stock since 1999 has given me that perspective.

 

Just so everyone knows where I am coming from. If Fairfax went to zero my life would not change at all.  I have been fully retired from a senior investment position since I was 54 and am now 66. The questions I raised are valid and should be discussed. It seems to have hit a nerve with many of you which I feel is telling in itself.

 

It would/will be interesting to get cwericb’s take on the original question, but I thought the original question was more than fair; zero offense was taken. Alternative viewpoints should be welcome as it spurs conversation. And open-ended questions and opinions which are contrary, at least in part, to the general consensus are equally welcome. Munger’s quote of “invert, always invert” is paramount, IMHO. 

One other aspect of the FFH share decline needs to be considered. Specifically, over the past several months, AI stocks have gone ape shit. Micron has more than tripled YTD, Nasdaq is up over 14% YTD and over 6% in the past 4 weeks. While Berkshire, Markel and JP Morgan Chase are down down 4.6%, 15.9% and 4.2% respectfully YTD. All three of those companies are doing fine and are as strong as ever, but money is flowing out of financials, CLEARLY, and into Tech. This will not go on forever. The market is a voting machine and, without question, it is voting for Technology/AI.* Today is a perfect example, and there have been several days like this throughout 2026…Tech is pulling back and financials are gaining. 

So, Bearprowler, honest question to an honest answer…the #1 thing to look at is company performance and stock price is a distant #2. If the price moves up faster than company performance/value, then selling should be considered. When the opposite happens, buying should be considered. It seems easy, but if it was that easy, we’d all make millions. Emotions get in the way of logical thinking. If it only took intelligence to invest, then all PHDs would be millionaires.

-Crip

 

* Please do not interpret this as me calling Tech stocks over-valued or disparaging them in any way. There are winners now and will be winners down the road. Right now, I think the market is voting for them at the expense of financials, and pendulems swing both ways.
 

[Intelligent_Investor]

1 hour ago, bearprowler6 said:

Its not a question of not understanding that stocks can drop 20%, 30% or more. The question I posed is now that such an unexpected drop has occurred in what is likely an oversized position in many portfolios held by members on this board what should/will they do next? The response to this question will vary greatly by personal circumstances  including age, marital status, overall net worth , cash flow needs etc. Someone 30, with a great job and having bought into Fairfax 6 years ago at the covid  bottom should arguably respond differently than someone who is 70+, retired, married and for sake of argument in failing health.

The answer is buy more lol, you are overcomplicating this and getting emotional about returns. As Charlie Munger said, if you aren't able to handle your stock investments declining by 50% once every few decades you shouldn't own stocks. I'd assume most of us are wealthy enough to not be on the streets with a 20% down year...

[73 Reds]

6 minutes ago, Crip1 said:

 

It would/will be interesting to get cwericb’s take on the original question, but I thought the original question was more than fair; zero offense was taken. Alternative viewpoints should be welcome as it spurs conversation. And open-ended questions and opinions which are contrary, at least in part, to the general consensus are equally welcome. Munger’s quote of “invert, always invert” is paramount, IMHO. 

One other aspect of the FFH share decline needs to be considered. Specifically, over the past several months, AI stocks have gone ape shit. Micron has more than tripled YTD, Nasdaq is up over 14% YTD and over 6% in the past 4 weeks. While Berkshire, Markel and JP Morgan Chase are down down 4.6%, 15.9% and 4.2% respectfully YTD. All three of those companies are doing fine and are as strong as ever, but money is flowing out of financials, CLEARLY, and into Tech. This will not go on forever. The market is a voting machine and, without question, it is voting for Technology/AI.* Today is a perfect example, and there have been several days like this throughout 2026…Tech is pulling back and financials are gaining. 

So, Bearprowler, honest question to an honest answer…the #1 thing to look at is company performance and stock price is a distant #2. If the price moves up faster than company performance/value, then selling should be considered. When the opposite happens, buying should be considered. It seems easy, but if it was that easy, we’d all make millions. Emotions get in the way of logical thinking. If it only took intelligence to invest, then all PHDs would be millionaires.

-Crip

 

* Please do not interpret this as me calling Tech stocks over-valued or disparaging them in any way. There are winners now and will be winners down the road. Right now, I think the market is voting for them at the expense of financials, and pendulems swing both ways.
 

Folks who owned Berkshire circa 1999-2000 fondly recall how the share price plummeted during the dot com era.  Nothing really new here. 

[bearprowler6]

9 minutes ago, 73 Reds said:

Folks who owned Berkshire circa 1999-2000 fondly recall how the share price plummeted during the dot com era.  Nothing really new here. 

And those who had to sell (deaths, divorce, funding business needs etc) Berkshire during 1999-2000 never benefited from the recovery.

[bearprowler6]

18 minutes ago, Intelligent_Investor said:

The answer is buy more lol, you are overcomplicating this and getting emotional about returns. As Charlie Munger said, if you aren't able to handle your stock investments declining by 50% once every few decades you shouldn't own stocks. I'd assume most of us are wealthy enough to not be on the streets with a 20% down year...

You should not be recommending for anyone to buy more of any security since you don't know their circumstances. Suggesting the best approach in all cases is to buy more when your favorite stock is down is over simplifying a very complex and nuanced situation.  

[73 Reds]

2 minutes ago, bearprowler6 said:

And those who had to sell (deaths, divorce, funding business needs etc) Berkshire during 1999-2000 never benefited from the recovery.

Sure - you are alluding to individual circumstances.  Everyone's individual circumstances are different.  No one on this board can tell you specifically what to do.  But many here have offered general advice that will likely work out very well unless you have a specific need for money now.  

[Jaygo]

@bearprowler6 Your question is a very good one.

 

In almost every instance I always hope my portfolio holdings drop after I have committed to buying them. This has been a cornerstone of my success and the averaging down process has been massively successful. Recent examples are Aritzia, Exchange Income Corp and Mako Mining. 

 

Fairfax going down is going to be a very different experience as I have only known gains and after purchasing my first chunk in 2022 in the mid 800 CAD range it has been up and to the right the whole time with a lot of averaging up. 

 

FFH is now a very large holding of nearly 40% of my portfolio and the daily gains and losses are becoming comical to me. 

 

If hypothetically it dropped by half here I would be devastated ( mentally not financially ) but I'm not sure what the hell id do as I have so much of my money in it already. My sincere hope is that it starts rising again soon because i'm not willing to sell and take more capital gains and i'm not willing to buy more because it is so big already. 

 

Obviously there is a lesson here that the position became too big for comfort and I have trapped myself in a weird matrix of taxes owing, borrowed money and missing gains. I am pretty happy with the company anyway and try not to watch it daily.

 

 

 

 

[Intelligent_Investor]

The complex and nuanced situation is if you can't handle a 10-20% correction from an ATH just a mere few months ago, you shouldn't own individual stocks and just buy the index. Selling shouldn't even be crossing your mind...

[jbwent63]

I would add that the only reason to look at the price every day is if you are actively looking to buy or sell. Otherwise it is just entertainment IMO. Has the information on May buybacks been released?

[gfp]

bearprowler has been clear:  they have no interest in buying more as it goes down.  they have no interest in selling.  they are completely financially secure if Fairfax goes to zero.

 

So obviously that leaves:  do nothing

 

When I suggested risk management attention was better directed at the names making new highs since there must be several in a portfolio that is up year to date, it was an unbelievable suggestion.  So we will keep it to just fairfax:  do nothing.

 

[73 Reds]

2 minutes ago, gfp said:

bearprowler has been clear:  they have no interest in buying more as it goes down.  they have no interest in selling.  they are completely financially secure if Fairfax goes to zero.

 

So obviously that leaves:  do nothing

 

When I suggested risk management attention was better directed at the names making new highs since there must be several in a portfolio that is up year to date, it was an unbelievable suggestion.  So we will keep it to just fairfax:  do nothing.

 

There is yet another alternative:  Give it away - it can be someone else's problem.