Fairfax 2026

[Jaygo]

2 minutes ago, gfp said:

Why didn't your 1630 get filled?  I got filled at 1624

Just filled, I placed the trade just a few minutes past the open. RBC brokerage kind of sucks. 

[Eldad]

You bastards sucked me back in (probably just in time for the 7 years of famine) 

 

Long live Fairfax!

[hardcorevalue]

I'm maxed out on position so no adding for me but it's tough watching it sit here for a year.

 

I guess I should blame myself on position size and remember the previous 5 years and be grateful!

 

Management has been doing a fantastic job. 

[Junior R]

13 minutes ago, Eldad said:

You bastards sucked me back in (probably just in time for the 7 years of famine) 

 

Long live Fairfax!

this time is difference that period was due to hedges ...I am pretty sure buybacks are going go more aggressive and the business are improving ...fixed income portfolio is also contributing  

[Eldad]

6 minutes ago, Junior R said:

this time is difference that period was due to hedges ...I am pretty sure buybacks are going go more aggressive and the business are improving ...fixed income portfolio is also contributing  

I believe it

[MMM20]

39 minutes ago, hardcorevalue said:

I'm maxed out on position so no adding for me but it's tough watching it sit here for a year.

 

I guess I should blame myself on position size and remember the previous 5 years and be grateful!

 

Management has been doing a fantastic job. 

I think it was cheap then and even cheaper now, a coiled spring. I’m adding for the first time in a few years. The business owner mindset + staying patient and willing to accept a dead year or three might be our only structural edge in the pod shop era. They don’t have the duration. 

Over/under for the price 5 years from now is US$5000.

 

Edited May 1 by MMM20

[Parsad]

15 minutes ago, MMM20 said:

I think it was cheap then and even cheaper now, a coiled spring. I’m adding for the first time in a few years. The business owner mindset + staying patient and willing to accept a dead year or three might be our only structural edge in the pod shop era. They don’t have the duration. 

Over/under for the price 5 years from now is US$5000.

 

 

It will be at $3,000 CDN by the end of the year as long as there is no large market collapse!  Almost certain to hit $5,000 CDN within 5 years.

 

Cheers!

[Lazarus]

Hitting USD 5000 in 5 years requires a 25% CAGR. Almost triple usual market returns.

Hitting CAD 5000 in 5 years requires a 18% CAGR. About double usual market returns.

 

Either scenario indicates an outlier. Go fairfax!

Edited May 1 by Lazarus
forgot to add the 5-year timeframe

[Junior R]

1 minute ago, Lazarus said:

Hitting USD 5000 in 5 years requires a 25% CAGR. Almost triple usual market returns.

Hitting CAD 5000 in 5 years requires a 18% CAGR. About double usual market returns.

 

Either scenario indicates an outlier. Go fairfax!

you have to also take into consideration the float which reduces the CAGR needed

[Lazarus]

I was simply referring to the compounded return on FFH share price itself. But maybe I'm misunderstanding your point?

[Viking]

1 hour ago, hardcorevalue said:

I'm maxed out on position so no adding for me but it's tough watching it sit here for a year.

 

I guess I should blame myself on position size and remember the previous 5 years and be grateful!

 

Management has been doing a fantastic job. 

The key questions: Has the value of the business increased over the past year? How much? What are the prospects for the business moving forward? How is management doing? 
 

One of the wild cards is multiple. I think we are all learning what the range for this will be for Fairfax moving forward (1.3 to 1.6 x BVPS?). Of course it could go both lower and higher when pessimism/optimism are at extremes. 

[Parsad]

26 minutes ago, Lazarus said:

Hitting USD 5000 in 5 years requires a 25% CAGR. Almost triple usual market returns.

Hitting CAD 5000 in 5 years requires a 18% CAGR. About double usual market returns.

 

Either scenario indicates an outlier. Go fairfax!

 

It's only 18% if you assume that it is at fair value right now at $2,200 CAD or so.  But if fair value is between $2,500 CAD and $2,800 CAD...CAGR would only be 12-15%...which is at or below their stated goal.  

 

My assumption is that it is almost certain to be trading at fair value within 5 years...I can't predict what will happen in any given year...two years...three years...but generally within 5 years, it will trade at some point at or above fair value.  So market price might compound at an 18% CAGR, but that is irrelevant to book value which may only compound at 12-15% CAGR.  

 

Cheers!

[TwoCitiesCapital]

2 hours ago, hardcorevalue said:

I'm maxed out on position so no adding for me but it's tough watching it sit here for a year.

 

I guess I should blame myself on position size and remember the previous 5 years and be grateful!

 

Management has been doing a fantastic job. 

 

Same. If I could get a sustainable bounce in Bitcoin or Exor or Fairfax India, then it'd free me up to buy a few more shares, but because those largest positions are in sustained drawdowns from 6-12 months ago, and I added to Fairfax in December, it's now sitting slightly above the 10% position limit I allow for myself meaning I can't add

 

 

[SonOfKen_IV]

Sold few teaser positions to increase FFH.   

[ander]

honestly. doesn't even make any sense re: stock price move. I'll take it! is this literally computers selling off headlines or did computers / someone buy into the print hoping for a pop and now just selling? too good

[TwoCitiesCapital]

It's because they only look at the headlines at not through them to BV growth or FV above carrying value. 

 

Including just that one adjustment doubles earnings to above any estimate, but the headline number was a miss.

 

Markets are efficient?

[Libs]

This is crazy. Thank you Mr. Market. Just bumped this to my max cost basis limit; I'm 'all-in.'

[Sloanes Teddy]

I blew past self-imposed limit on Fairfax today. If i'm wrong and I get killed, I figure it will be like the Tom Hanks/Paul Newman scene in Road to Perdition....."I'm glad it was you." 

[Parsad]

25 minutes ago, Sloanes Teddy said:

I blew past self-imposed limit on Fairfax today. If i'm wrong and I get killed, I figure it will be like the Tom Hanks/Paul Newman scene in Road to Perdition....."I'm glad it was you." 

 

One of Tom Hanks' most underrated movies!  Paul Newman and a young Daniel Craig as his son were fantastic too.  Great movie!  Cheers!

[mananainvesting]

Has the volatility in $FFH.To/$FRFHF increased post add to TSX60? Thoughts?

[mananainvesting]

Duration is just 2.2 Years! Love it! 

[Eldad]

21 minutes ago, Parsad said:

 

One of Tom Hanks' most underrated movies!  Paul Newman and a young Daniel Craig as his son were fantastic too.  Great movie!  Cheers!

Jude Law too. Detestable villain. Paul Newman is so likable but is really just vile scum. Very dark but also uplifting. Great film. 

[Crip1]

US$1,605 - Could not help myself. - Added another 10% to my largest position.

 

$70/share in earnings in Q2 looks to be a conservative estimate, so, that means $100/share in 1H of 2026 which puts them on pace for another year of EPS in excess of $200. Selling for just over $1,600...

 

-Crip

Edited May 1 by Crip1

[Parsad]

1 hour ago, Eldad said:

Jude Law too. Detestable villain. Paul Newman is so likable but is really just vile scum. Very dark but also uplifting. Great film. 

 

Yes, yes...forgot all about him in there!  A nasty piece of work he was.  Cheers!

[djokovic1]

Pretty nonsensical move as others on the board have pointed out. I find it surprising because there were no surprises in the earnings, they were in line with my expectations. If anything the premium growth was a positive surprise.
 

Well, markets are not efficient in the short term. At these prices I expect the buyback to progress at 1% a month pace similar to March.