gary17 Posted January 22 Posted January 22 Does anyone know if DRIP is bought at avg price of the day or market -open price. My own observation / sense is market has been short Canada based on geopolitics. my 2 cents!
MMM20 Posted January 22 Posted January 22 (edited) Total stupidity. At least I noticed in time to buy a few more shares? I'm guessing the stock ends the day flattish. Edited January 22 by MMM20
TwoCitiesCapital Posted January 22 Posted January 22 (edited) I bought more. Increased my position by ~6% with the intent to let those shares go if we get back to ~$1,900 USD. Had to buy at the ask with a market order to fill, but am ok not catching the bottom. Will be a cool ~15% if we get back to $1,900 which will be better than what I was making in short term bond funds. This takes share price back May with no accounting for profits, market appreciation, and share repurchases since or that much of that is going to continue even if insurance softens. This is where we'll see the reflexivity of the TRS though - as of today, Fairfax owes its counterparty $500-600 million. If share price doesn't recover by 3/31 (I'm assuming these are quarterly reset swaps), that'll be cash out the door and not money that can be used for repurchases. Edited January 22 by TwoCitiesCapital
MMM20 Posted January 22 Posted January 22 (edited) 2 minutes ago, TwoCitiesCapital said: This is where we'll see the reflexivity of the TRS though - as of today, Fairfax owes its counterparty $500-600 million. If share price doesn't recover by 3/31 (I'm assuming these are quarterly reset swaps), that'll be cash out the door and not money that can be used for repurchases. Over/under for the share price recovering (assuming I'm right on the reason for the selloff) = tomorrow Edited January 22 by MMM20
Jaygo Posted January 22 Posted January 22 I really wish I was better prepared for this type of thing. Its rare but by the time I got a few bucks in order the sub 2200 was gone. Who knows maybe well get another crack at it.
UK Posted January 22 Posted January 22 31 minutes ago, Santayana said: I blame it all on Parsad's US Treasury risk thread! I had trimmed a little at $1900, adding some of that back now.
TwoCitiesCapital Posted January 22 Posted January 22 8 minutes ago, MMM20 said: Over/under for the share price recovering (assuming I'm right on the reason for the selloff) = tomorrow It's possible. We're all doing our part But without knowing what's causing the flash crash of 8% and billions wiped off the market cap, there's no way for us to know if it'll persist.
gfp Posted January 22 Posted January 22 What was that all about? Plus another $600k or so through fidelity. Weird morning but nothing better than Biglari up Fairfax down!
longlake95 Posted January 22 Posted January 22 1 minute ago, Jaygo said: I really wish I was better prepared for this type of thing. Its rare but by the time I got a few bucks in order the sub 2200 was gone. Who knows maybe well get another crack at it. me too. happens so fast - had to sell some stuff to get some cash. I did get a few at 2199.99 -LOL. The rest came in at 2210'ish. I hope the company can move fast and buy in a lot of stock - liquidity is an issue here with FFH. I'm sure the company would like to be buying in larger quantity but can't.
Jaygo Posted January 22 Posted January 22 i guess you can get notifications to your phone or something but that could get really annoying. Oh well
TwoCitiesCapital Posted January 22 Posted January 22 I mean, the move hasn't been "missed". It's still down 5-6% from the open and much more than that YTD. Even if you didn't bottom tick the -9% this AM, there may still be time to get shares there and you may still benefit from buying at 10-15% off the 12/30 top.
longlake95 Posted January 22 Posted January 22 1 minute ago, TwoCitiesCapital said: I mean, the move hasn't been "missed". It's still down 5-6% from the open and much more than that YTD. Even if you didn't bottom tick the -9% this AM, there may still be time to get shares there and you may still benefit from buying at 10-15% off the 12/30 top. Two, you're not wrong. Over time, it won't matter much.
Viking Posted January 22 Posted January 22 25 minutes ago, djokovic1 said: What a gift! Imagine the stock went down 12% on a short report but goes down 9%! on the BMO analyst report that we know is (pardon my language)...shitty. I have always been surprised by how much their shitty reports can move Fairfax. Well its to our long term benefit + hopefully aggressive buyback today! +1. This is very normal for Fairfax. As Graham (and Buffett) taught, price is to be exploited. Not to inform.
backtothebeach Posted January 22 Posted January 22 Between index fund buys, share buybacks, the TRS, and COBFers hodling (did I forget anything?), I think more and more shares are locked up, so this could stay volatile.
UK Posted January 22 Posted January 22 43 minutes ago, gfp said: What was that all about? Plus another $600k or so through fidelity. Weird morning but nothing better than Biglari up Fairfax down!
CharlesMunger Posted January 22 Posted January 22 (edited) 97.4k shares just traded - might have been FFH? Edited January 22 by CharlesMunger
Hoodlum Posted January 22 Posted January 22 56 minutes ago, longlake95 said: me too. happens so fast - had to sell some stuff to get some cash. I did get a few at 2199.99 -LOL. The rest came in at 2210'ish. I hope the company can move fast and buy in a lot of stock - liquidity is an issue here with FFH. I'm sure the company would like to be buying in larger quantity but can't. There should have been lots of opportunity for Fairfax to do buyback this morning, with no large cross at the open and 100k shares traded before noon.
Hoodlum Posted January 22 Posted January 22 6 minutes ago, CharlesMunger said: 97.4k shares just traded - might have been FFH? I don't see that. Are you sure you were not looking at total volume?
maplevalue Posted January 22 Posted January 22 I have always thought that FFH is a very illiquid stock. If you look at the intraday chart on a regular trading day you can see it (long periods with very little trading, random price jumps of large magnitudes). I am not sure the numbers are, but I would imagine lots of the float is held by buy-and-hold for forever investors (I would count myself as one of these people). When I see the price action on a day like today, and consider that FFH also has strange price gyrations around earnings, I would not be surprised if it stems from quant funds that are all trying to do the same thing at once, but the underlying liquidity just is not there. For example, there are probably certain funds that use analyst upgrades/downgrades as an indicator, leading to today's fairly outsized move at the open.
Intelligent_Investor Posted January 22 Posted January 22 1 hour ago, UK said: This is nuts, MW moment without MW? Reach for the bucket!:) Can not be that downgrade though? Some kind of flash crash? Most likely geopolitical concerns with the recent Trump rhetoric
Junior R Posted January 22 Posted January 22 right now Fairfax cannot directly buy stock...Only the broker can using parameters they provided before quite period started...
Hoodlum Posted January 22 Posted January 22 38 minutes ago, maplevalue said: I have always thought that FFH is a very illiquid stock. If you look at the intraday chart on a regular trading day you can see it (long periods with very little trading, random price jumps of large magnitudes). I am not sure the numbers are, but I would imagine lots of the float is held by buy-and-hold for forever investors (I would count myself as one of these people). When I see the price action on a day like today, and consider that FFH also has strange price gyrations around earnings, I would not be surprised if it stems from quant funds that are all trying to do the same thing at once, but the underlying liquidity just is not there. For example, there are probably certain funds that use analyst upgrades/downgrades as an indicator, leading to today's fairly outsized move at the open. I thought Fairfax doesn't screen well for Quants. Or maybe Quants are only active on the sell side.
flesh Posted January 22 Posted January 22 So bummed, woke up, saw 1625, kept putting in orders near the current bid and then it'd go up, went on for 10 minutes, no fills, finally got some filled at 1670, lame. Glad some of you guys were faster, it's hard to think after waking while taking a piss.
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