Q4 State of the Economy 2025: Personal Ancedotes?

[winjitsu]

Wanted to start this thread since I'm having a hard time understanding how the economy is doing. My guess is this board skews wealthier and has been doing well under the bull market, but still would love to hear some personal anecdotes from your own life or from those around you. How are things going?

 

On one hand the economy seems to be doing well:

• Atlanta Fed showing Q3 GDP growth of 3.8%.
• AI Capex is Booming
• Our ever diligent @wabuffo keeps excellent tabs on the very strong tax receipts showing a strong labor market(https://x.com/wabuffo/status/1973892697472503853/photo/1)
• Unemployment, historically speaking, is still very low. 
• Visa, Mastercard and Banks with pretty strong consumer spending sentiment reports

 

On the other hand:

• Youth unemployment spiking and U+7 numbers looking pretty high. My guess is the 200k fed workers cut from the first round of DOGE should be hitting the job market this month too
• Subprime auto lenders are start to tank with a couple recent bankruptcies
• Student Loan repayments are starting to hit garnishment, with the highest ever number of 90+ day delinquent borrowers at 6m
• Credit card delinquencies spiking (https://mishtalk.com/economics/troubling-trends-in-student-loans-auto-loans-and-credit-card-late-payments/)

 

A few of my mid-career friends looking for jobs in IT are complaining that jobs are very hard to find at the moment. Very little hiring as the industry digests the impact of AI. Amazon is "laying-off" quite a few folks with large comp packages from the 2020-2022 era, and the heat is on for all my other friends at Meta, Google, Microsoft etc to produce more as they lay-off more.

 

My gut feel is that things aren't going well. Curious to hear from others in different industries.

Edited October 3, 2025 by winjitsu

[coffeecaninvestor]

The biggest complaints around me are about housing. Had one person in IT get laid off. 

 

I work for a large health insurance company dealing with middle market size businesses.. They are hurting badly, we have had a much larger number and much higher renewals that must be squeezing the bottom line.  It's not only us, but we have been seeing it on the new business side as well.

Edited October 3, 2025 by coffeecaninvestor
additional info

[Munger_Disciple]

This guy says layoffs highest since 2020:

 

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2025/10/03/layoffs-reach-highest-since-2020-challenger-gray-and-christmas.html

[LC]

I'd say somewhere between "good" and "so-so"

Colleagues in my age cohort (late 30s/early 40s) are all in established positions, making good money. 

However the ones getting laid off are having difficulty finding work.

Had a buddy in digital product marketing out of work for 1-2 years who finally was able to find a new gig, another who was just let go from a well paid data analytics position. 

 

At the risk of saying silly macro things, I think employment pressure is only going to increase the next 12 months or so, unless Trumpy can convince JPow to drop rates? I just don't see where reinvestment funds or incremental macro demand will come from. 

[SharperDingaan]

Within Ontario, within academia, there are permanent mass layoffs everywhere. The ivory tower isn't good at change, virtually all academic institutions are operating deep in the red, and most have cut entire programs along with all associated staff; tenured or otherwise. Most of the losses resulting from material reductions in the number of international student visas, who were essentially paying the bills. At some institutions, 50%+ of all previous programs are now gone, and remaining management is well out over their skis. 

 

Many have won the lottery, but are too shell shocked to realise it; very generous severance packages, employment insurance, benefit enhancements, and pension upgrades .. within 2-3 years of planned retirement. Lot of others will also materially benefit long-term from the push out of academia, but at present it is still too raw. There are short term contract opportunities associated with transition, but it is not a happy place to work.

 

Very different in the craft beer biz. While a lot of brewers will go out of biz in this cycle, everyone is already very lean, geographically spread out, and most staff can also do different things. Lot are also doing side hustles brewing small batches for local bars, using the minimum of equipment bought out of bankruptcy at cents on the dollar, and working with other craft brewers in barter arrangements to essentially keg, &/or obtain can/material at cost. Different strokes.

 

Great place to work, and quite a few of those who had to be downsized come back on gig work (kegging, loading pallets, etc.) to supplement income. The brewer typically throwing in a free pizza/sandwich lunch and a take-home six pack, when there are many involved and its a weekend. Community outreach beginning at home first.

 

SD

 

 

Edited October 3, 2025 by SharperDingaan

[73 Reds]

2 hours ago, winjitsu said:

Wanted to start this thread since I'm having a hard time understanding how the economy is doing. My guess is this board skews wealthier and has been doing well under the bull market, but still would love to hear some personal anecdotes from your own life or from those around you. How are things going?

 

On one hand the economy seems to be doing well:

• Atlanta Fed showing Q3 GDP growth of 3.8%.
• AI Capex is Booming
• Our ever diligent @wabuffo keeps excellent tabs on the very strong tax receipts showing a strong labor market(https://x.com/wabuffo/status/1973892697472503853/photo/1)
• Unemployment, historically speaking, is still very low. 
• Visa, Mastercard and Banks with pretty strong consumer spending sentiment reports

 

On the other hand:

• Youth unemployment spiking and U+7 numbers looking pretty high. My guess is the 200k fed workers cut from the first round of DOGE should be hitting the job market this month too
• Subprime auto lenders are start to tank with a couple recent bankruptcies
• Student Loan repayments are starting to hit garnishment, with the highest ever number of 90+ day delinquent borrowers at 6m
• Credit card delinquencies spiking (https://mishtalk.com/economics/troubling-trends-in-student-loans-auto-loans-and-credit-card-late-payments/)

 

A few of my mid-career friends looking for jobs in IT are complaining that jobs are very hard to find at the moment. Very little hiring as the industry digests the impact of AI. Amazon is "laying-off" quite a few folks with large comp packages from the 2020-2022 era, and the heat is on for all my other friends at Meta, Google, Microsoft etc to produce more as they lay-off more.

 

My gut feel is that things aren't going well. Curious to hear from others in different industries.

The answer depends a lot on where you are in life.  A younger version of me had a few goals.  One of them was, when I got older not to be burdened by economic fluctuations which are entirely inevitable.  So as an older person, I'm doing fine but mostly because of a strong desire decades ago not to have my financial life disrupted by factors outside of my control.   Another factor for many is marketability; those who are in desirable fields and who bring strong attributes to the table rarely have a problem when it comes to employment and their careers.  That too involves some degree of planning and foresight when you are young.  And of course investing well over the course of a lifetime helps to smooth out a lot of bumps along the way.  

[winjitsu]

3 minutes ago, 73 Reds said:

The answer depends a lot on where you are in life.  A younger version of me had a few goals.  One of them was, when I got older not to be burdened by economic fluctuations which are entirely inevitable.  So as an older person, I'm doing fine but mostly because of a strong desire decades ago not to have my financial life disrupted by factors outside of my control.   Another factor for many is marketability; those who are in desirable fields and who bring strong attributes to the table rarely have a problem when it comes to employment and their careers.  That too involves some degree of planning and foresight when you are young.  And of course investing well over the course of a lifetime helps to smooth out a lot of bumps along the way.  

 

Well said and I definitely agree 100%. I have been fortunate with investments, and I'm sure things will be fine for myself, regardless if the economy is good or bad. But at the same time, I know not all people are like "us" and spend their free time working on investments, so I tried to phrase the question similar to a neighbor poll. 

The reason I asked was because  I recently saw a Bezos quote:
 

Quote

When the data and the anecdotes disagree, the anecdotes are usually right.

It’s usually not that the data is being miscollected.
It’s usually that you’re not measuring the right thing.

 

Anecdotally, I have been hearing things are also between good and so-so. I would say bad for folks out of work. But it could be just because my circle is concentrated in certain sectors like Finance and IT. 
 

[winjitsu]

44 minutes ago, SharperDingaan said:

Within Ontario, within academia, there are permanent mass layoffs everywhere. The ivory tower isn't good at change, virtually all academic institutions are operating deep in the red, and most have cut entire programs along with all associated staff; tenured or otherwise. Most of the losses resulting from material reductions in the number of international student visas, who were essentially paying the bills. At some institutions, 50%+ of all previous programs are now gone, and remaining management is well out over their skis.

 

Same for a family friend at a private college here in the states. Given a buyout this past year, 3 years earlier than expected, due to the sharp drop in international students. School also deep in the red, cutting athletics and many other services. 
 

[Red Lion]

I know some small business owners complaining they can’t find employees that are willing to work. Yet the unemployment numbers are worse. Small business owners noticing meaningful pushback on pricing and overall lack of traffic. Health insurance premiums taking up a larger and larger share of disposable income. More than housing in some cases. 
 

Generally I hear a lot of complaints about homeowners insurance rates skyrocketing. Complaints from renters and would be buyers about the high cost of housing. 
 

This all seems consistent with the premise that 80% of the population is hurting based on the inflation, covid money running out, very high inflation of essential items (eg housing and medical care). 
 

just my observations. I don’t live in a statistically significant sub market so I definitely feel like there’s more economic malaise than the overall national economy. 
 

[Jaygo]

The economy here in the Toronto area is pretty slow. Anything housing and construction related is very slow. The boomers are still sending lots of money out the door for small projects, dining out and travel so if that's you customer your doing well.

 

I think the day to day living expenses are astonishingly high and that is really hurting a lot of people. I look at my day to day life and struggle to figure out how people are surviving then I look at some big ticket stuff and think its cheap. How can an Avocado or large onion cost 3-4 bucks but I can get an all Inclusive in Punta Cana for 900?

 

I think most of our economic problems are own goals by shit head politicians and the like, not to get political since all sides tend to suck but you cant invite millions of newcomers, tax energy like crazy, tax development like crazy, slow roll every approval, make your local condo with 40 units spend 200k on an "art" installation and then wonder why housing, food, transportation and our standard of living is worsening. I believe that we are seeing the consequences of 10 years of extreme mismanagement and overstep from every level of government from the Feds in Ottawa right down to the town councillors paying for political statements with taxpayer money.

 

In my own business I expect this year to be a high water mark purchasing power wise for a couple years. I have had a large contract since 2022 that lapses this year end and I am seeing much tougher pricing on the other side. If I win that or other contracts in 2026 I expect compressed margins. 

 

Everyone with assets is being lulled to sleep by the bull market but if you comp your returns to actual prices your likely not doing as well as you think. So if you made 20% last year i would say that's just keeping your head above water. If you dont have a large portfolio like the average working person you are likely starting to feel the pinch.

A few years ago I made a post about being around 800k in port value and hoping to hit 1 mill by the end of 2024 or something. I'm riding this bull for all its worth and imo putting up great #s so reached 1.7 this week. The problem is our currency has lost a ton of buying power since then and now I have taxes to pay on the gains that may not be gains in purchasing power anyway. If I extrapolate out 10 years I have a really hard time seeing where things stand because imo the devaluation is starting to really effect the economic situation. Maybe Ill have 10 mil but the avocado will cost 10 bucks? and if so what is the 55 year old woman with the low wage desk job going do to feed her teenage sons?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Castanza]

I think most people and companies are kind of holding their breath waiting for the next show to drop. IT is in a hiring freeze for sure, along with some other segments. Small businesses definitely seeing pushback on pricing from consumers (but what can they do?)
 

What I notice most though, is almost a complete lack of planning by individuals who have the means to plan ahead to weather any type of storm. 
 

Most people over inflate to themselves just how important they are to their company. Most people don’t save nearly enough in emergency funds. Americans in general have been conditioned to live as if the possibility of bad things happening here is just a myth. 
 

Overall it definitely just seems “weird” out there… 
 

 

Edited October 5, 2025 by Castanza

[Spekulatius]

You either have a loaded gun or your dig. True all the time but especially in this economy.

 

Edited October 4, 2025 by Spekulatius

[dealraker]

11 hours ago, Castanza said:

I think most people and companies are kind of holding their breath waiting for the next show to drop. IT is in a hiring freeze for sure, along with some other segments. Small businesses definitely seeing pushback on pricing from consumers (but what can they do?)
 

What I notice most though, is almost a complete lack of planning by individuals who have the means to plan ahead to weather any type of storm. 
 

Most people overinflated to themselves just how important they are to their company. Most people don’t save nearly enough in emergency funds. Americans in general have been conditioned to live as if bad things happening are just myths. 
 

Overall it definitely just seems “weird” out there… 
 

 

Agree.

[mattee2264]

Top 10% of American wage earners account for nearly 50% of consumer spending. They also own lots of financial assets which have done amazingly well over the last 5, 10, 15 years. So that is a considerable ballast to the economy. Since the pandemic companies have increasingly focused on premiumisation raising prices rather than increasing volumes knowing that the rich will pay up and that will offset any loss of lower income consumers. 

 

Niall Ferguson was talking the other day how he feels we've returned to the Gilded Age of the 1890s. For rapid industrialization read AI capex build. For robber barons read Tech CEOs. Lots of corruption and poverty and huge wealth inequality. Of course that period from 1870s to 1890s had quite a few market panics and economic downturns. Although in those days there wasn't the central bank around to bail markets out but there is a lot of instability so it could still be a bumpy ride ahead. 

[Spekulatius]

2 hours ago, mattee2264 said:

Top 10% of American wage earners account for nearly 50% of consumer spending. They also own lots of financial assets which have done amazingly well over the last 5, 10, 15 years. So that is a considerable ballast to the economy. Since the pandemic companies have increasingly focused on premiumisation raising prices rather than increasing volumes knowing that the rich will pay up and that will offset any loss of lower income consumers. 

 

Niall Ferguson was talking the other day how he feels we've returned to the Gilded Age of the 1890s. For rapid industrialization read AI capex build. For robber barons read Tech CEOs. Lots of corruption and poverty and huge wealth inequality. Of course that period from 1870s to 1890s had quite a few market panics and economic downturns. Although in those days there wasn't the central bank around to bail markets out but there is a lot of instability so it could still be a bumpy ride ahead. 

Lots of tariffs too in this Guilded age. I think Trump / Bessent actually pointed to that time to justify the current tariffs. The guilded Agee of course led eventually to counter movement like antitrust as well as the rise of socialism in many countries (but not the US).

[rogermunibond]

Interesting set of charts from Torsten Slok on labor market weakness.  Good reasons for it.  Thinks Fed should focus more on rising inflation trend.

 

https://www.apolloacademy.com/the-daily-spark/?utm_medium=email&utm_source=pardot&utm_id=b5fabc137ed88ba6b9694d660c56edec&utm_campaign=EXT_Daily+Spark

[brobro777]

Pretty great this year, buying the stock index futures off the tariff selloffs in the spring was great and gold and bitcoin worked out well too - all while egg prices have plummeted in LA

 

But then again I sold those Dec 2025 ES contracts too soon in July and I should have bought some Charizard Pokemon cards

 

regrets, I've had a few...

 

 

[DooDiligence]

That reminds me, anyone still long Beanie Babies?

 

[brobro777]

4 minutes ago, DooDiligence said:

That reminds me, anyone still long Beanie Babies?

 

 

 

These guys are probably still long:

 

 

 

[DooDiligence]

17 minutes ago, brobro777 said:

 

 

These guys are probably still long:

 

 

 

 

I remember watching Burt Reynolds in Heat, when he won like $100K or so at blackjack and then went to the bar with the guy he was body guarding. They talked about what he could do with the money and then he went back to the blackjack table. I switched channels because I hate watching people do stupid shit. Spoiler alert: he lost it all.

[winjitsu]

1 hour ago, DooDiligence said:

That reminds me, anyone still long Beanie Babies?

 

What about Labubus and Popmart  

[John Hjorth]

I have been thinking about this on-off now for a long time, - several years, actually. While taking the poll in the starting post in this topic, I opted for 'So-so'.

 

It's literally about the question in the starting post in this topic : 'How Are Things Going for the People Around You?'

 

Specifically not about the Lady of the House, with whoom I I have been co-locating for now 12 years [short of 7 days today, actually], living together for 15 years, on our by then two separate adresses, untill we started co-locating. I'm not married to her, that will likely never happen, I think. [Back then, when it got really serious, I said to her, that I likely never would ask her to merry me, I considered the marriage as institution the most oversold institutional imperative in the Danish society ever, some really overrated crap not worth to engage in, because it screw up things between two persons, and I would like to carry her through the rest of her life, keep roof over her head and give her the ultimate freedom as long as she lives with me, - even if she decides to leave me, and starts to execute on that. No matter what she decides to do, I'll contribute and cooperate to make the funds available for her to do so, whatever happens, from her own personal means.

 

True, unconditional love is that you ultimately are willing to let yourloved dove fly, if it wants to do so, because it considers it the best personal option at a given time to do so.

 

We have three socalled 'separate' kids, all in all, she two, I one, from prior relationship [me]/marriage [she]. My concern are them - thus I opted 'So-so' option in the poll. Her decendants are in the early 40's, my daughter is in the middle of the 30's.

 

They live their own lives, independant of us, never asking for anything, nor even ever calling for advice on anything. [John, the worried chicken mother?]

 

They are all three renters, one in Copenhagen, one in Aarhus, and one in a small town here on the Danish island called Funen.

 

So I don't really know how they each individually perceive their own living conditions by now.

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

-Please don't ask me to personally consider, if they all three consider me personally to the greatest 'a**h*le' they know! 

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

We've got new, socalled 'maintenance free' gable claddings on our home recently, including new gutters and downpipes, including paint of all other treeworks being a part of 'the hat' of the house not replaced [because still good], switching from 70's & 80's brown and green colours, to antracite [Swisspearl Plank Original - CP 150 Antracite]. - Christ, how craftsmanship and material prices have skyrocketed in the last five years or so!

[Red Lion]

3 hours ago, brobro777 said:

 

 

These guys are probably still long:

 

 

 

 

Shoulda bought Gold Eagles instead of Bald Eagles. 

[brobro777]

2 hours ago, DooDiligence said:

 

I remember watching Burt Reynolds in Heat, when he won like $100K or so at blackjack and then went to the bar with the guy he was body guarding. They talked about what he could do with the money and then he went back to the blackjack table. I switched channels because I hate watching people do stupid shit. Spoiler alert: he lost it all.

 

Not me bro, watching guys do dumb shit has given me sense of relief over and over in life. I'm pretty dumb and lazy but against competition like that, I know that I got a chance baby, a pretty decent chance! 

 

 

[Red Lion]

1 minute ago, brobro777 said:

 

Not me bro, watching guys do dumb shit has given me sense of relief over and over in life. I'm pretty dumb and lazy but against competition like that, I know that I got a chance baby, a pretty decent chance! 

 

 

Words to live by. lol