25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports.

[cubsfan]

2 minutes ago, dwy000 said:

Illegal immigration has always been a problem. For hundreds of years. And always will be for a developed country.  That's not the question.

 

So, you're saying you don't actually have any stats supporting your position?

 

I am saying we have a crisis with Mexico that you don't seem to think is a problem.

If you are unwilling to acknowledge that crisis - then this is pointless discussion.

 

[SharperDingaan]

9 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

Why haven’t elections been moved ahead like in Germany? It’s not a great time to run rudderless when your 10x larger neighbor bullies you.

 

The expectation is that the existing government will be called back to declare an election as at a specific date, and put required bills forward. The 'caretaker' government kept in place to deal with Trump until the election, by opposition agreement. Interfere, or don't sign on, and you are almost guaranteed to lose the election.

 

Canada first, and everybody plays together, or else.

 

SD

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited 16 hours ago by SharperDingaan

[dwy000]

9 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

 

I am saying we have a crisis with Mexico that you don't seem to think is a problem.

If you are unwilling to acknowledge that crisis - then this is pointless discussion.

 

No, it's pointless because you claimed to have stats supporting your position and you obviously don't.  What are you basing your position on if not facts? 

[cubsfan]

Just now, dwy000 said:

No, it's pointless because you claimed to have stats supporting your position and you obviously don't.  What are you basing your position on if not facts? 

 

No - I've posted these stats before. Now I need to find them. It's that simple.

 

But you don't think there is an immigration problem anyway with Mexico - you think everything is just fine that doesn't square at all with why we have a new President. This was his #1 issue. You just don't believe it.

[Spekulatius]

Since this an investment forum, I think the markets are going to sh$t a brick on Monday, In Canada, the US and the EU and Mexico.

I think Mr Market has greatly underestimated the damage these tariffs will do. A lot of earnings estimates are going to be revised down and it just the start of the year.

[dwy000]

5 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

 

No - I've posted these stats before. Now I need to find them. It's that simple.

 

But you don't think there is an immigration problem anyway with Mexico - you think everything is just fine that doesn't square at all with why we have a new President. This was his #1 issue. You just don't believe it.

I literally posted about 3 posts ago that illegal immigration is a problem (although not just about Mexico and not just for the US)!

 

If.you posted the stats they should be easy to repost, right?

[dwy000]

5 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

Since this an investment forum, I think the markets are going to sh$t a brick on Monday, In Canada, the US and the EU and Mexico.

I think Mr Market has greatly underestimated the damage these tariffs will do. A lot of earnings estimates are going to be revised down and it just the start of the year.

My guess is about 3% down (maybe closer to 5% out of the gate).  

[Xerxes]

43 minutes ago, Junior R said:

I think there going hit tsla cars lol

that would be great. 
i am already sick of seeing too many Cybertruck. 

[Xerxes]

8 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

Since this an investment forum, I think the markets are going to sh$t a brick on Monday, In Canada, the US and the EU and Mexico.

I think Mr Market has greatly underestimated the damage these tariffs will do. A lot of earnings estimates are going to be revised down and it just the start of the year.

probably not. 
this was not news.
 

Maybe a 2% down at most. 

[cwericb]

2 minutes ago, Xerxes said:

that would be great. 
i am already sick of seeing too many Cybertruck. 

 

DITTO! I am always tempted to walk up to someone in one of those things and ask them if they built it themselves and what would the final version look like?

[Xerxes]

1 hour ago, cwericb said:

Then too, what happens if Canada decides to reduce the oil your refineries are so dependent on, and, should we so choose, dim your lights in all those Northern U.S. cities using Canadian electricity to heat their homes. 

 

The refineries on Gulf of Mexico are just fine with heavy sour Venezuelan oil just as well as the ones from Canadian tar sands. Sad but truth. 
 

 

[Viking]

At times like this, as an investor, it is important to be inquisitive and open minded. Be rational. Keep emotions in check.

---------

Buckle up boys and girls, it looks like things are about to get real. The problem we all have today is a lack of information. Even Trump doesn't know what he is going to do (in the coming weeks/months). Politically, Canada's governing party (federal Liberals) is a historical mess (in every respect) - so it is highly unlikely they are going to handle the issue well (probably the opposite). So it is impossible to know with any certainty how this is ultimately going to play out.

 

So what is an investor to do (particularly one in Canada)? Well, I have always been told that financial markets hate uncertainty... we will probably test that theory in the coming weeks/months.

 

Having some cash on hand probably makes some sense. Both Canadian and US stock markets are trading back at all time highs (perhaps whistling past the graveyard?). Investors have had a wonderful opportunity the past week or two to get positioned a little more defensively. Bond yields have been heading lower in recent weeks (flight to safety?).

 

We just might get some wicked volatility over the short term - some very well managed companies could get taken out behind the woodshed. Or not.  

 

I am trying to stay focused on understanding what is happening (and less on good/bad). So I can navigate through it as best as possible (just like past disruptions).

Edited 19 hours ago by Viking

[Lazarus]

I seem to recall the betting markets had tariffs against Canada at only 18% probability. This isn't baked in, at least not in the Cdn market.

 

Ontario alone was predicting 500,000 job losses due to the tariffs. This guarantees a major recession in Canada, presumably with a stock market sell off. We might see FFH get dumped with the rest of the Cdn market. 

[Xerxes]

40 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

 

There ya' go Sharper!  It's great for Canada and great for America! 

We agree for once!

+1

 

Short term pain, but if it pushes our political parties to man up and build export pipelines, to reduce dependencies on one customer, I will take it. 

 

2025 could be for Canada on energy exports what 2022 was for Germany for energy imports. 
 

This should now be considered a national security issue (not just trade) at a highest level in Ottawa if it isn’t already. 
 

 

[Xerxes]

The King now needs a wartime Prime Minister and not a peace time consigliere. 

 

 

Edited 19 hours ago by Xerxes

[Sweet]

I get the tariffs on China - why only 10% though.

 

I also get the tariff on Mexico - leverage in immigration.

 

I don’t get the tariff on Canada.

[Spooky]

I still don't think Trump or his followers understand how tariffs work. It is going to suck when they start realizing that American citizens will pay higher prices for the goods that they are importing.

[Buckeye]

1 hour ago, cubsfan said:

 

I find it so interesting that this board thinks the US President should sit by like some kind of 

patsy or sucker like Joe Biden.

Literally no one on this board is saying this. What are you talking about?

[Sweet]

@cubsfan

 

@dwy000

 

Both good posters.  Both good insights.  Don’t get banned please!

 

Consider taking this discussion to DMs, Parsad said he’s just gonna lock threads… please.

[Gregmal]

Just buy American made or suck it up. Always so much drama, let people freak out and dump their stocks Monday, who cares? How many times do we need to see these movies and how they always play out? 

Edited 19 hours ago by Gregmal

[Xerxes]

12 minutes ago, Spooky said:

I still don't think Trump or his followers understand how tariffs work. It is going to suck when they start realizing that American citizens will pay higher prices for the goods that they are importing.

 

ideology trumps economics 

 

[Spooky]

Maybe Canada should try and mend its relationship with China...

[Xerxes]

6 minutes ago, Spooky said:

Maybe Canada should try and mend its relationship with China...

We don’t need to, system equilibrium will be reached by PRC reaching out to us, as they would see a fissure in the North Atlantic alliance to exploit (usually magnified more than it really is) … coupled with Trudeauexit, would mean a nice reset opportunity 
 

[james22]

19 minutes ago, Xerxes said:

ideology trumps economics

 

Many things trump economics.

 

Something economists forget.

[james22]