25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports.

[maplevalue]

1 hour ago, Junior R said:

Best way to play Canada is wait for the elections if polls show conservatives are going win ...jump back in and that's rhe point it will rally...I think for now Trump will hold off on any big tariffs until the election is done...he got Justin out so he's happy Elon likes the conservative leader so maybe they wait it out and negotiate free trade

Would disagree here. If anything I imagine Trump thinks implementing tariffs -> hurt liberals -> Pollievre more likely to be PM (which I think Republicans would prefer). So if anything he implements tariffs ASAP.

[SharperDingaan]

Poilievre is a nut case, but will probably be Canada's next Prime Minister. With Trudeau now gone, Poilievre has also now become a liability to his party, and an insurance policy against a blow-up. Best outcome is an early screw up, and a replacement as soon as possible.

 

The US buys its heavy crude net of a differential charge that covers the cost of transport and a discount to use it; pre the TMP expansion easing egress, a typical USD 22/bbl. Today, with the TMP expansion, USD 12/bbl is more usual. This differential is the 'cheap oil' subsidy that Poilievre is referring to.

 

The US can either buy CDN, Mexican, or Venezuelan crude; the oilsands is the 3rd largest oilfield in the world, and Alaskan gas needs to pass through Canada on its way to US refineries. Turkeys can strut all they want, but ultimately there will be a deal. The best outcome for everyone is new, and big pipe, going south.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mackenzie_Valley_Pipeline

https://northern-pipeline.canada.ca/5

 

SD

 

 

 

 

   

Edited January 11 by SharperDingaan

[SharperDingaan]

Great op-ed piece from a former prime-minister ....

 

"Ever since Mr. Trump’s attacks, every political party is speaking out in favour of Canada. In fact, it is to my great satisfaction that even the Bloc Québécois is defending Canada. But you don’t win a hockey game by only playing defence. We all know that even when we satisfy one demand, Mr. Trump will come back with another, bigger demand. That’s not diplomacy; it’s blackmail."

 

"Let’s tell Mr. Trump that we too have border issues with the United States. Canada has tough gun control legislation, but illegal guns are pouring in from the U.S. We need to tell him that we expect the United States to act to reduce the number of guns crossing into Canada. We also want to protect the Arctic. But the United States refuses to recognise the Northwest Passage, insisting that it is an international waterway, even though it flows through the Canadian Arctic as Canadian waters."

 

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-jean-chretien-canadian-leaders-donald-trump-plan/#comments

 

SD

 

[Lazarus]

Why do you think Polievre is a nutcase SD? He's a sharp debater, quick on his feet and has a grasp of the issues. 

[cubsfan]

29 minutes ago, SharperDingaan said:

Great op-ed piece from a former prime-minister ....

 

"Ever since Mr. Trump’s attacks, every political party is speaking out in favour of Canada. In fact, it is to my great satisfaction that even the Bloc Québécois is defending Canada. But you don’t win a hockey game by only playing defence. We all know that even when we satisfy one demand, Mr. Trump will come back with another, bigger demand. That’s not diplomacy; it’s blackmail."

 

"Let’s tell Mr. Trump that we too have border issues with the United States. Canada has tough gun control legislation, but illegal guns are pouring in from the U.S. We need to tell him that we expect the United States to act to reduce the number of guns crossing into Canada. We also want to protect the Arctic. But the United States refuses to recognise the Northwest Passage, insisting that it is an international waterway, even though it flows through the Canadian Arctic as Canadian waters."

 

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-jean-chretien-canadian-leaders-donald-trump-plan/#comments

 

SD

 

 

Good for the ex-PM. He obviously understands The Art of the Deal and how Trump negotiates.

Trump asks for 80% of what he wants, and when he's got everyone's attention he settles for 55%.

 

Canada secures the border and all is good. Obviously, the USA should secure their border as well for Canada's benefit. 

This guy gets it.

[gary17]

he also pointed out the Liberals need to get bcak to the centre.  they've drifted too far left 

[SharperDingaan]

6 hours ago, Lazarus said:

Why do you think Polievre is a nutcase SD? He's a sharp debater, quick on his feet and has a grasp of the issues. 

 

NO, he's one-trick pony and has been for a long time, a bad Trump mimic, wants to get rid of the governor of the Bank of Canada https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/poilievre-bank-of-canada-audit-1.6433860 .....  and as the Prime Minister in waiting while Canada is under attack, the best he can come with is 'I'm not the Prime Minister' and endless repetition of the 'Axe the Tax' slogan ?. So bad ... that a 91 year old had to step up to the plate, 'cause this pony can't lead worth sh!te.

 

If the conservatives do not win a landslide majority with their current 20%+ lead, he's out. If there's another minority government, he's out. He was there to get rid of Trudeau, and with Trudeau now gone, he's a liability. And much as Trump suddenly lost much of his lead in the recent US election when Harris showed up ... most would expect something  similar with Trudeau now gone.

 

This Is Canada, good governance prevails, the colour of the party is no big deal, and it doesn't go well for posers; especially when Canada is under threat. 

 

SD

 

 

Edited Sunday at 09:53 PM by SharperDingaan

[Spekulatius]

3 hours ago, Lazarus said:

Why do you think Polievre is a nutcase SD? He's a sharp debater, quick on his feet and has a grasp of the issues. 

I know anything about him other than the clip shown above. I think he is a bit off, but he does not strike me as a nutcase.

When had coercion ever worked on another country? What is Trump and the MAGA crowd thinking? We again see the issue with Trump - instead of standing up to Putin and Xi Jinping, he bullies allies. Same than during the first administration where he went of the rails with steel tariffs with Canada and left the Chinese alone until much later.

[SharperDingaan]

My vote is for the Shawinigan Handshake ... coming to you as soon as possible, and even in the right colour  https://troududiable.com/en/beers/shawinigan-handshake/  The original clip .... giving a protester's head a friendly shake.  https://canadaehx.com/2021/02/06/the-shawinigan-handshake/

 

Now if this were licensed to every brewery in Canada, and the licensing fee given to local food banks to buy food, that would be REAL protest!

 

SD

 

Edited Sunday at 09:40 PM by SharperDingaan

[cubsfan]

Trump knows the most important question of any negotiation:

 

"Am I dealing from a position of strength?"

[ICUMD]

Chretien was a first class leader where Trudeau failed miserably.

 

2 reasons:

1. Always put Canada first.

2. Backbone.  Couldn't bully the guy. Loved his handshake. And description of pepper spray.

 

https://youtube.com/shorts/nShvaJ3aLDo?si=HGc01DKZi7wE5Hbx

 

Trudeaus aspirations for a post national state, affiliations with WEF, and inability to foster a Canadian identity have led to national unrest, crime, drugs, poverty and inflation and a pitiful Canadian dollar. Glad to see the final act on this tragedy by the trust fund substitute drama teacher.

 

For Trudeau, there was no 'team Canada'.

Only him. He went through countless allies- Morneau, Freeland, Raybould, Payette etc.

Not to  mention Sophie.

Talk about pathologic.

Liberal party deserves to be decimated in the polls for allowing this leader to continue so long unopposed.

 

Poilivere is an articulate speaker, well educated, and knows Canada well.  Hes got spine and I think he will put Canada first.  Can only fully judge a man by his actions. Let's hope he can start by uniting Canada with a voice strong enough to counter Trump.

Edited Tuesday at 02:30 AM by ICUMD

[Spekulatius]

4 hours ago, ICUMD said:

Chretien was a first class leader where Trudeau failed miserably.

 

2 reasons:

1. Always put Canada first.

2. Backbone.  Couldn't bully the guy. Loved his handshake. And description of pepper spray.

 

https://youtube.com/shorts/nShvaJ3aLDo?si=HGc01DKZi7wE5Hbx

 

Trudeaus aspirations for a post national state, affiliations with WEF, and inability to foster a Canadian identity have led to national unrest, crime, drugs, poverty and inflation and a pitiful Canadian dollar. Glad to see the final act on this tragedy by the trust fund substitute drama drama teacher.

 

For Trudeau, there was no 'team Canada'.

Only him. He went through countless allies- Morneau, Freeland, Raybould, Payette etc.

Talk about pathologic.

Liberal party deserves to be decimated in the polls for allowing this leader to continue so long unopposed.

 

Poilivere is an articulate speaker, well educated, and knows Canada well.  Hes got spine and I think he will put Canada first.  Can only fully judge a man by his actions. Let's hope he can start by uniting Canada with a voice strong enough to counter Trump.

Got to love this answer. I agree Poilivere looks like a better leader here. I think Sheinbaum has it too in her.

[Lazarus]

I know that macro concerns are somewhat taboo for value investors, but they are hard to ignore with the tariff threats looming. The Ontario government estimates that a 25% tariff would cost 500,000 Canadian jobs in Ontario alone. Extrapolating to the rest of the country, that means about 2 million Cdn jobs would be lost. That undoubtedly causes a recession and economic crisis, and Canada is already leaking water after 9 years of Trudeau. Yet the Cdn market shrugs it off?

[Milu]

56 minutes ago, Lazarus said:

I know that macro concerns are somewhat taboo for value investors, but they are hard to ignore with the tariff threats looming. The Ontario government estimates that a 25% tariff would cost 500,000 Canadian jobs in Ontario alone. Extrapolating to the rest of the country, that means about 2 million Cdn jobs would be lost. That undoubtedly causes a recession and economic crisis, and Canada is already leaking water after 9 years of Trudeau. Yet the Cdn market shrugs it off?

I often find these types of predictions tend to be overblown as they don't consider the second order effects such as canada finding new trading partners or other adjustments. Similar doom mongering went on with Brexit or when russian gas supplies were cut off to Europe. The world and canada will adjust quickly to any new reality.

[Paarslaars]

He won't go through with it, if he does then Canada can cut the US off in terms of copper supply and hurt the auto industry.

 

Same for the EU, they already have a plan in place in case Trump starts with tariffs.

The EU will excessively tax industries that are predominantly located in swing states.

[Castanza]

4 hours ago, Lazarus said:

I know that macro concerns are somewhat taboo for value investors, but they are hard to ignore with the tariff threats looming. The Ontario government estimates that a 25% tariff would cost 500,000 Canadian jobs in Ontario alone. Extrapolating to the rest of the country, that means about 2 million Cdn jobs would be lost. That undoubtedly causes a recession and economic crisis, and Canada is already leaking water after 9 years of Trudeau. Yet the Cdn market shrugs it off?

 

Is that private sector or public? Canada has an egregious amount of people working for their government. Something like 21% of the population vs ~3% in the US. 

[Lazarus]

15 minutes ago, Castanza said:

 

Is that private sector or public? Canada has an egregious amount of people working for their government. Something like 21% of the population vs ~3% in the US. 

The 500,000 in Ontario refers to total jobs, public and private: Tariffs from U.S. could cost up to 500,000 Ontario jobs, Ford says | CBC News 

 

I get the point that some are saying that these dire predictions are often overblown. But with 75% of Canada's trade going to the USA, this would shut down trade for Canada. It hurts the USA also, but not as much as it hurts Canada. 

[Castanza]

Nobody know what's going to happen. Best to just wait and see imo. There is little predictability with leadership changes. 

[Viking]

On 1/10/2025 at 12:15 PM, Viking said:

@SharperDingaan , your post is very timely. For the past couple of years I have largely avoided thinking too much about macro. This has kept me more fully invested than I normally would have been. With hindsight, that has been a good decision - financial markets have been VERY strong the past 2 years and returns have smoked.

 

However, I decided in recent days to get much more defensive with my portfolio. Why? Macro concerns have reached a point where it seems kind of reckless to ignore them. Important: I am coming at this as a Canadian investor. My spidey sense are tingling again - and I have learned over the years to pay attention when that happens.

 

What are my concerns?

- The recent spike in interest rates in the US.

- The very weak Canadian economy - it has been weak for years. 

- The housing bubble in Canada also looks like it might be 'ending' (and these events tend not to be good for the economy).

- The threat from Trump to impose blanket 25% tariffs on Canada.

- The political turmoil in Canada - the federal Liberal party put itself and the country into a straight jacket for the next 6 months.

 

With this set-up, what could possible go wrong?

 

At the same time, the Canadian stock market (S&P/TSX) is trading near all-time highs (4% off highs). It is priced for sunny days ahead. 

 

I am much more constructive on the US economy moving forward than the Canada economy. 

 

What did I do?

 

Over the past couple of days I have moved to a 28% cash position in my portfolio. Most of my selling has been XIC.TO (my Canadian ETF/index holding).

 

In the coming days and weeks I will read/learn/process and decide how I feel about things and my decision/positioning of my portfolio. 

 

The bottom line the risk/reward seems pretty skewed to the downside for the Canadian economy. Importantly, I don't have to be fully invested. Actually it's kind of dumb for me to be fully invested. Capital preservation is more important to me these days than rate of return. Much of my portfolio is in tax-free accounts - so I can move in and out of positions and not have to worry/think about tax implications.  

 

If I change my mind I will simply start buying back XIC.TO. If it runs higher in the meantime I can live with that. At the same time, we could also see some very well run Canadian companies get taken out behind the woodshed. If I am fully invested it would be difficult to take advantage of this situation. I love the optionality that cash provides.

 

Just a quick update... over the weekend/past couple of days I decided a 28% cash weighting was too aggressive. I am at 15% cash today - that feels better/more appropriate. I added mostly XEQT. So essentially I flipped XIC (100% Canada) for XEQT (44% US, 24% Canada, 32% rest of world). The net result is I have materially decreased my exposure to Canada. Got my cash weighting to about where it usually sits. And increased my exposure to US and rest of world.

[Ulti]

Didn’t know where to put the link here or in energy but a good discussion on Canadian oil and gas and tariffs 

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/arc-energy-ideas/id1438664577?i=1000684001743

[cwericb]

I really doubt Mr Trump, his cohorts and supporters have any idea of the potential Canada has to retaliate in regards to tariffs if we absolutely must.

 

What happens if Canada decides to reduce our water supply to the US, perhaps dam up a few rivers? The US is rapidly running out of water and will soon be in desperate need of water. If the US expects Canada's help this is a funny way to ask for it. We have long memories. How about the amount of Canadian produced electricity coming from and running through several Canadian provinces that helps to power major US cities? Should Canada dim the lights in NYC and Boston for a bit just to get their attention? About $125,000,000,000 yearly Canadian oil goes to the US at a substantially DISCOUNTED price. $22 Billion in petroleum gas exported to the US each year, $27 billion Canadian car parts and vehicles goes to the US yearly as well as billions of dollars in minerals that we sell to the US that are not easily available elsewhere - and certainly not available right next door. Then there is the 4.5 billion a year just in fertilizers that would be very expensive to source elsewhere, etc, etc.

 

The US depends on Canadian exports to the tune of well over One Billion dollars every single day. Why? Because these exports are easily, cheaply and dependably available. 

Certainly if the US wants to try to cut us off there are lots of other potential markets open to Canada, but our friends to the south might not want to see our exports going countries the US doesn't see as friendly to their interests.

 

What about trade going from the US to Canada? Has Mr. Trump considered who the biggest customer for exports of US produced goods? Probably not the best plan to constantly insult your customers Donald, because Canada has lots of other potential suppliers. 

 

These are just a few quick thoughts, but no one up here in the Frozen North* wants any part of this crap, but you can only insult your neighbours so much, and one can already see attitudes hardening towards our good neighbours. Our friends to the South might want to give these things just a little thought.

*Interesting fact: About 20 US states have portions of their land area that are equal to, or NORTH of the most southern parts of the Canadian border. Check it out on a map.

[SharperDingaan]

I hear you ! .....

 

Agreed that long term, there needs to be wide-spread change across North America, and it will not happen in the various fiefdoms without a lot of furniture getting broken. As in all rough hockey and team development; everyone has to go through the forming, storming, norming and performing stages. It isn't pleasant, bullying is part of the process, and everyone has to learn how to bite back. The good news is that material change does occur, it happens quickly, and with everyone either on the same page or road kill.

 

Short term, one can expect it to get very ugly and very fast; routine bench clearings at the drop of a stick, injuries everywhere, strong coaching, and a lot of broken teeth. Hence the need to be favouring cash, and hedging wherever practical; so as to be able to buy back later once the blood has frozen to the ice. Back in the day it took Pearl Harbour to wake the Americans up to the global threats they were facing, and it happened again with 9/11; this time around it's 'us' getting woken up. Ultimately it was good thing .... but there was a lot of damage in the getting there.  

 

Sometimes the dust-up behind the barn to 'clear the air', is not a bad thing; medics and dentists can do amazing things, but it's best to be out of the elephants way.

 

SD

 

 

Edited Wednesday at 08:08 PM by SharperDingaan

[cubsfan]

@cwericb  - Not to worry. The good old USA will always provide defense to Canada as we always have.  There are some benefits to having a contiguous border with the world's strongest military.

Call it "the free rider effect" - while we protect you, you don't have to fund it or worrry about it.

 

While the USA spends $800B , continue with your military spending of 1/100th of that number.

 

It must be nice to divert all those funds to your nonsense liberal government led by Trudeau.

[cwericb]

Yeah Cubs, but that Idiot is soon to be gone.

 

Anyone who thought that some smooth talking, entitled, left wing, part time drama teacher was qualified to run a country got what they deserved.

 

I am all for immigration. But really, I mean really, who thinks that in a country of less than 40 million, you can bring in one million people a year without requiring that a certain percentage be doctors, nurses, skilled workers, etc, etc, simply isn't playing with a full deck. I mean really! And then to give away a billion $ or so every time he appears on TV...

 

Now we have a well qualified candidate for PM. A guy who is an economist and banker and who served as governor of the Bank of Canada, then was hired away to head up the Bank of England and is now head of impact investing at Brookfield Asset Management. BUT, but he is running for the head of the party who gave us Trudeau. Ahh, what to do?

[gary17]

Americans probably have short memory - let's not forget who helped american diplomats out of iran.  who welcomed stranded americans to their homes after sept 11.  who stood shoulder to shoulder , sharing intlligence, etc on fighting terrisom.   we even had two michaels went to jail to execute a US warrant.   that's just what I know. many more examples I am sure.