Fairfax 2025

[Hoodlum]

I bought additional shares today as I don't believe we will be close to this price in the coming months.  I was not planning to add to my position, but this was an easy decision based on the Fairfax's current valuation and earnings for the next 2-3 years.  

[Parsad]

9 hours ago, 73 Reds said:

Perhaps for now, but that is short-term thinking.  One day size will turn into a huge advantage.  

 

No, it's not really short-term thinking.  Buffett's been writing and warning investors for nearly two decades, but he kept outperforming.  But it is a reality.

 

It will turn into an advantage in terms of size, but it doesn't mean it will be accretive to growth or opportunity.  Cheers!

[nwoodman]

2 hours ago, Hoodlum said:

I bought additional shares today as I don't believe we will be close to this price in the coming months.  I was not planning to add to my position, but this was an easy decision based on the Fairfax's current valuation and earnings for the next 2-3 years.  

Threw a few more on the pile myself.  Currently 10%+ earnings yield on the lower end next years estimates, which I think are conservative.  
 

These corrections are a thing of joy and appear quite mechanical/algo driven especially with earnings next week and given we are close to the end of Hurricane season.   Hopefully they are making full use of the NCIB and buying handing over fist.

[KFRCanuk]

5 minutes ago, nwoodman said:

These corrections are a thing of joy and appear quite mechanical/algo driven especially with earnings next week and given we are close to the end of Hurricane season.   Hopefully they are making full use of the NCIB and buying handing over fist.

I have too much of it. Wish I had the stones to trade some in, then out and then repeat.

[Hoodlum]

18 minutes ago, KFRCanuk said:

I have too much of it. Wish I had the stones to trade some in, then out and then repeat.

I will eventually sell the additional shares purchased today.   But that could be anywhere from 6-24 months out, depending on share price and other opportunities.  
 

Now that we are out of hurricane season and earnings keep growing, I will be patient for the share price to respond. 
 

Edited October 29, 2025 by Hoodlum

[nwoodman]

18 hours ago, KFRCanuk said:

I have too much of it. Wish I had the stones to trade some in, then out and then repeat.

Fair enough, my mental model of a “deep value” index fund with float leverage is no doubt wrong but I have always felt that there is more diversification here than most give credit.  

Edited October 30, 2025 by nwoodman

[Marco Van Basten]

GODIGIT had numbers the other day.  Market liked them.  

[73 Reds]

14 hours ago, Parsad said:

 

No, it's not really short-term thinking.  Buffett's been writing and warning investors for nearly two decades, but he kept outperforming.  But it is a reality.

 

It will turn into an advantage in terms of size, but it doesn't mean it will be accretive to growth or opportunity.  Cheers!

Nah, ultimately it will turn into huge value creation, probably more than can now even be imagined.  Short term thinking (i.e., we will never have another long, extended downturn or crisis) always turns out wrong.     

[Intelligent_Investor]

On 10/28/2025 at 1:35 PM, Marco Van Basten said:

@Viking, with all due respect, in my opinion, BRK's problems are not due to size.  They are due to:

a) mismanagement of GEICO & UNP

b) Warren completely missing the great home-runs of the past decade or two: MSFT/META/GOOG/VMC/MLM/WM/RSG and GE in the past five years.

 

 

I think MSFT and GOOG were the two biggest misses. Warren understood both well enough to have bought when they were really cheap and much smaller and Berkshire shareholders would be hundreds of billions richer if he had swung at them. I think Charlie would've swung at those.

[Jaygo]

35 minutes ago, Intelligent_Investor said:

I think MSFT and GOOG were the two biggest misses. Warren understood both well enough to have bought when they were really cheap and much smaller and Berkshire shareholders would be hundreds of billions richer if he had swung at them. I think Charlie would've swung at those.

I tend to agree with the google position. Google killed the newspaper ad business and WB should have seen it. 

[Malmqky]

Warren and Charlie both lamented the fact they missed Google during an annual meeting. Something about how they were using it at Geico for ads and it was so much better than everything else.

[Dazel]

Buffett could not buy Microsoft because of Bill Gates. The stock did not move a dollar for 12 years before Gates. (The other bubble)

 

Google was missed and Charlie talked about it yes.

 

Buffett missed Fairfax….when us old timers bought here.

I got shares at $67 cdn…in 2003? it was $2500 a week ago. 

he knew Prem and knows the business better than anyone! 

[73 Reds]

7 minutes ago, Dazel said:

Buffett could not buy Microsoft because of Bill Gates. The stock did not move a dollar for 12 years before Gates. (The other bubble)

 

Google was missed and Charlie talked about it yes.

 

Buffett missed Fairfax….when us old timers bought here.

I got shares at $67 cdn…in 2003? it was $2500 a week ago. 

he knew Prem and knows the business better than anyone! 

Exactly right about MSFT.  Buffett spoke of the "conflict of interest" often.  But shoulda, woulda, coulda is not constructive.  Buffett is not buying anything now; the new regime will be more aggressive than Buffett was in his golden years when it comes to investing because they are more in tune with the new economy.  They don't have to swing often.  With trillion dollar companies evolving with regularity, all it will take is 1 or 2 great investments in size for everyone to completely forget the recent past.  There may come a time when EVERYONE will want to own shares of Berkshire because of its balance sheet and disciplined approach.  We're not there now but when the BTC bubble bursts, look out below.

[Viking]

53 minutes ago, Dazel said:

I got shares at $67 cdn…in 2003? it was $2500 a week ago. 

2003 was a wild year for Fairfax shareholders. I added at C$70. The return for my portfolio that year was 87%. I was very lucky - at the time, I was able to lean on the knowledge of other posters on this board. 
 

The interesting thing is in 22 short years, Fairfax has completely changed as a company. Especially on the insurance side of things.

 

I am really looking forward to reading David’s book, The Fairfax Way. I am hoping it will provide some insights (give us a better understanding) into the many changes that have been happening at the company.

 

https://www.amazon.ca/Fairfax-Way-Inside-Lasting-Success/dp/1037802195

Edited October 30, 2025 by Viking

[Hoodlum]

2 minutes ago, Viking said:

2003 was a wild year for Fairfax shareholders. I added at C$70. The return for my portfolio that year was 87%. I was very lucky - at the time, I was able to lean on the knowledge of other posters on this board. 

 

While I was following the discussion back in 2003 on the MSN board, I was very much a newbie and didn't get in with that opportunity.  I did time the 2009 Financial crash, loading up at C$250 and selling ~6 months later at $400.  

[Crip1]

1 hour ago, Intelligent_Investor said:

I think MSFT and GOOG were the two biggest misses. Warren understood both well enough to have bought when they were really cheap and much smaller and Berkshire shareholders would be hundreds of billions richer if he had swung at them. I think Charlie would've swung at those.

I do not agree. Charlie was running the investment portfolio at the Daily Journal and, to the best of my knowledge, did not pick up MSFT or GOOG. He did take a big position with BABA and that most certainly was not a good move. Not being critical on that BABA position, nor of Charlie. I am a huge admirer of Charlie as he was absolutely brilliant, but nobody is infallible, something to which Charlie would wholeheartedly agree.

 

-Crip

 

 

[Castanza]

There has been more than one opportunity to buy GOOGL or MSFT over the years. GOOGL as early as this past April at ~$140. Also didn't Fairfax exit their GOOGL position this past year? 

[Intelligent_Investor]

3 hours ago, Crip1 said:

I do not agree. Charlie was running the investment portfolio at the Daily Journal and, to the best of my knowledge, did not pick up MSFT or GOOG. He did take a big position with BABA and that most certainly was not a good move. Not being critical on that BABA position, nor of Charlie. I am a huge admirer of Charlie as he was absolutely brilliant, but nobody is infallible, something to which Charlie would wholeheartedly agree.

 

-Crip

 

 

Charlie didn't need to own GOOG in DJCO because he was invested in Himalya Capital which has owned a lot of GOOG over the years. MSFT Buffett understood the business model very early on and agreed it was one of the best businesses out there that could be run with minimal capital, he was just way too cautious at the time on the computer/internet industry. Basically said he wasn't going invest because he didn't understand computers well enough.

[Parsad]

4 hours ago, Jaygo said:

I tend to agree with the google position. Google killed the newspaper ad business and WB should have seen it. 

 

He did see it.  He just didn't know the durability of the business.  It's easy to see a juggernaut in hindsight. 

 

Sergei and Larry even sent Buffett a copy of their company handbook/beliefs that emulated Berkshire's.  Charlie and Warren even spoke about it one of the AGM's...I was there.  I could have bought Google at $80 a share when it IPO'ed.  I had no idea of the durability.  

 

They just didn't know if another company would come in and be just as competitive...both on search or ads.  Cheers!  

[Parsad]

4 hours ago, 73 Reds said:

Exactly right about MSFT.  Buffett spoke of the "conflict of interest" often.  But shoulda, woulda, coulda is not constructive.  Buffett is not buying anything now; the new regime will be more aggressive than Buffett was in his golden years when it comes to investing because they are more in tune with the new economy.  They don't have to swing often.  With trillion dollar companies evolving with regularity, all it will take is 1 or 2 great investments in size for everyone to completely forget the recent past.  There may come a time when EVERYONE will want to own shares of Berkshire because of its balance sheet and disciplined approach.  We're not there now but when the BTC bubble bursts, look out below.

 

During the decade when the stock was stagnant under Ballmer's watch, Buffett bought railroads, energy, insurers and Apple...I'm not going to balk at him for not buying MSFT which could have gone the other way if it wasn't for Nadella, while Berkshire continued to thrive and grow!  Cheers!

[Parsad]

It's always hilarious to me how arm-chair quarterbacks critique the greatest capitalist investor to ever live!  Or even some of the lesser quarterbacks.  

 

I would love to see anyone on here have a REAL conversation with Buffett about investing and economics, just like I would love to see some guys throw a football while stepping in for Patrick Mahomes!  

 

Google stock would skyrocket, because the Youtube video of the outcome would be the most viewed in history!  Cheers!

[Marco Van Basten]

1 hour ago, Parsad said:

 

During the decade when the stock was stagnant under Ballmer's watch, Buffett bought railroads, energy, insurers and Apple...I'm not going to balk at him for not buying MSFT which could have gone the other way if it wasn't for Nadella, while Berkshire continued to thrive and grow!  Cheers!

Parsad, I can acknowledge that Buffet is 10x the stock picker that I will ever be.  However, railroad purchase was a mistake, energy was a mistake, not buying Costco was a mistake, not buying insurance brokers was a mistake, not buying WM/RSG was a mistake, and the list continues.  MA/V is another one.  

[Parsad]

24 minutes ago, Marco Van Basten said:

Parsad, I can acknowledge that Buffet is 10x the stock picker that I will ever be.  However, railroad purchase was a mistake, energy was a mistake, not buying Costco was a mistake, not buying insurance brokers was a mistake, not buying WM/RSG was a mistake, and the list continues.  MA/V is another one.  

 

Railroads and energy will be here 50 years from now...can you say that about Costco?  

 

Omission is not a mistake.  It's simply a missed opportunity.  How many have you missed?  How many have I missed? Commission of a mistake is more egregious, and on that scale, Buffett has probably committed fewer than any single human being in history!

 

This is just a ridiculous argument.  None of us would even be here if it wasn't for what he has achieved.  Would you consider Sir Edmund Hillary a failed mountaineer/explorer because he didn't climb anything after Mt. Everest?  Would those missed opportunities to climb other mountains be a failure?

 

There is no Buffett after Buffett...so Berkshire has to be able to function and grow with whom it does have the helm.  Abel will never be able to invest capital like Buffett...same with the two Todds.  So they moved to more capital intensive businesses, including their insurance business, where large amounts of free cash flow can be reinvested in durable businesses.  A strategy that a moron could follow through on going forward!  

 

Cheers!

[Munger_Disciple]

WSJ article on Berkshire:

https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/berkshires-new-normal-no-buffett-shareholder-letter-and-no-buffett-premium-b53c2edd?st=o34SuL&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

 

Nothing new but Buffett's assistant (re)confirmed that Greg would be writing the 2025 annual letter. She also said Buffett would be publishing a Thanksgiving letter on Nov 10, addressed to his children & shareholders, similar to the one he wrote last year. 

[gfp]

poor old coot is so out of it he doesn't know what day thanksgiving is